Real Estate Crash thread

[jono]

Sandpoint was never ground zero, that was in Hayden. The description of hippies and forestry workers who all got along was pretty accurate even a few years ago. And the town was purple leaning blue, maybe even still is, since the county is providing ample evidence of what one-party homogeneous government does wrong. Ironically, right-wing transplants from left-wing locales should be familiar with this, but it's not virtuous to admit your team isn't perfect these days.

[skaredshtles]

Sandpoint was never ground zero, that was in Hayden.

Sandpoint/Hayden/Coeur d'Alene - it's all the same to us non-locals.

[oldnew_guy]

The last couple episodes of Bundyville dive into the Christian Identity movement and associated politics in that neck of the woods which is sort of the afterbirth of the neo-Nazis. Stevens County, WA though, so not SP proper.

[dan_pdx]

I have a Hawaiian buddy who lives in Rathdrum and rides Schweitzer; he's never mentioned having issues, but he has the real aloha spirit, it's hard for me to imagine anyone giving him a hard time. I've never really noticed anything on my Schweitzer trips, but maybe the skinheads like to wait for warm weather to show off their white power tats.

[TAFKALVS]

Srsly - Sandpoint has been Nazi/skinhead/nutty-prepper ground zero for at *least* 30 years... it's not like it's a secret.

If anything its going less that direction, not more. The mayor is full of shit, even he knows it.

If you want to meet the nutters, they're in NE Washington and NW Montana.

[skaredshtles]

If anything its going less that direction, not more. The mayor is full of shit, even he knows it.

If you want to meet the nutters, they're in NE Washington and NW Montana.

Heh - so what you're telling me is the nutters are mostly in the yellow areas, but NOT so much in the blue area? I'll have to take your word for it.

[summit]

So leveraging to buy a second property... to avoid the complexities of getting mortgage on a new property and the issues that comes when being a loan bidder in a mostly cash market...

Is it smarter to HELOC to a high LTV, pull that funding out plus savings to cash buy a second property and then take a loan on the second property to pay the HELOC?

[jono]

Heh - so what you're telling me is the nutters are mostly in the yellow areas, but NOT so much in the blue area? I'll have to take your word for it.

Well, most of them Were a few to many miles out of town. Because that was the attraction. Newbies are coming for the suburban red-state experience and testing their Putin-fluffing yard signs in 4 months of winter. They'd be happier in CdA, but then they'd have to use a less virtuous realtor.

[RootSkier]

Not sure why Bonner's Ferry and Boundary County (home of Ruby Ridge) in general are flying under the radar here. Of all the places I have spent time in North Idaho, that is the only place that legit gave me the heebie jeebies. Of course, we were driving around in the backwoods looking at remote whitewater, but still. Yikes.

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...west-needs-is/

[TAFKALVS]

Heh - so what you're telling me is the nutters are mostly in the yellow areas, but NOT so much in the blue area? I'll have to take your word for it.

Oh, there's nutters for sure. Just severity and rank of nutter is lower the closer to town you are.

Yellow nutters might for instance have 100,000 rounds of ammunition and pre-rigged booby traps, whereas a blue nutter might have 5000 rounds of ammo and a well equipped pantry.

[BCMtnHound]

Not sure why Bonner's Ferry and Boundary County (home of Ruby Ridge) in general are flying under the radar here. Of all the places I have spent time in North Idaho, that is the only place that legit gave me the heebie jeebies. Of course, we were driving around in the backwoods looking at remote whitewater, but still. Yikes.

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...west-needs-is/

Truth. During my stint in Creston, worked in the woods just above the line in Boundary, the upper Priest and Mission waterways. Nutters would have caches just across the line, there were trails and old roads all over the place. Even the US border guards got lost in there, they once held me and a coworker up for illegal entry. Took them to just our side of the line to a monument to prove they were the ones illegal. Coworker came across a bugout camp near boundary lk in the spring the first year I was there. Some guy was running from someone, but not far enough. His corpse had several bullet holes in it. Not a pleasant find.

We’d go drink down at the Good Grief when we were feeling the need for adventure. Locals would toss leftovers from dinner off the porch, then pull their sidearms and target practice when the pack rats would come out from under the building for the grub.

Interesting place. Sandpoint was very civilized in comparison.

[Yukonrider]

So leveraging to buy a second property... to avoid the complexities of getting mortgage on a new property and the issues that comes when being a loan bidder in a mostly cash market...

Is it smarter to HELOC to a high LTV, pull that funding out plus savings to cash buy a second property and then take a loan on the second property to pay the HELOC?

Yes. That is a good move, but you need to make sure your exit strategy (the refi) is locked in before you execute.

I read about a new loan product that lets you immediately refi out of a cash purchase instead of having to wait the traditional 6 month seasoning period. This might be worth looking into, but be careful of rates or fees higher than a traditional loan. The HELOC I just closed on is a 3.25%, at that rate waiting 6 months to season isn't a deal breaker at all, but your situation may differ.

Back to the exit strategy, the HELOC shouldn't greatly impact your DTI, but make sure to have a conversation with a couple bankers before offering so you don't get stuck with your HELOC and savings money tied up in a property you can't refi out of because of some technicality only a banker can dream up.

[TAFKALVS]

Okay, I'll admit, I am also a nutter.

[Dantheman]

Racists are everywhere, there may be a lot up there, but I think it's all overblown for the past 10 years.

Ever seen any of David Holthouse's deep undercover work with neo nazis? He would argue that there's a shitload of them everywhere.

[jono]

Okay, I'll admit, I am also a nutter.

Let's not start admitting things. No telling where that could end.

Ever seen any of David Holthouse's deep undercover work with neo nazis? He would argue that there's a shitload of them everywhere.

TBF, that's also why the Arian Nations meetings had more attendees taking down license plates of the other cars than not: the feds never turned down an invitation.

[fastfred]

So leveraging to buy a second property... to avoid the complexities of getting mortgage on a new property and the issues that comes when being a loan bidder in a mostly cash market...

Is it smarter to HELOC to a high LTV, pull that funding out plus savings to cash buy a second property and then take a loan on the second property to pay the HELOC?

No. Why would you take out imaginary equity in your home and leverage yourself to buy another over priced house sounds stupid to me but my money guy ran me through the numbers and told me to do it and it sounded even fucking stupider I think ll jerk off and pretend instead of digging a hole for myself like everyone else

[summit]

No. Why would you take out imaginary equity in your home and leverage yourself to buy another over priced house sounds stupid to me but my money guy ran me through the numbers and told me to do it and it sounded even fucking stupider I think ll jerk off and pretend instead of digging a hole for myself like everyone else

To live in the smaller place and not have to sell the bigger place.

[Ridgehippy]

Truth. During my stint in Creston, worked in the woods just above the line in Boundary, the upper Priest and Mission waterways. Nutters would have caches just across the line, there were trails and old roads all over the place. Even the US border guards got lost in there, they once held me and a coworker up for illegal entry. Took them to just our side of the line to a monument to prove they were the ones illegal. Coworker came across a bugout camp near boundary lk in the spring the first year I was there. Some guy was running from someone, but not far enough. His corpse had several bullet holes in it. Not a pleasant find.

We’d go drink down at the Good Grief when we were feeling the need for adventure. Locals would toss leftovers from dinner off the porch, then pull their sidearms and target practice when the pack rats would come out from under the building for the grub.

Interesting place. Sandpoint was very civilized in comparison.

Always found Bonners Ferry to be an interesting mix; the dueling signs coming into town kinda tell the story

Across from the Golf Course:


Bout a half-mile down the road from there:

[glademaster]

$1M for a 725 square foot condo in a brown, ugly, sprawling, congested shithole. When can we start beheading the rich?

When a massive midvalley project called the Tree Farm was approved in June 2017, the development team and Eagle County officials hailed it as a way to address the “missing middle” — people who cannot afford the free market but make too much to qualify for subsidized housing.
The Tree Farm approval included 150 deed-restricted units reserved for people who live or work in Pitkin, Eagle and Garfield counties. No caps were placed on the sales prices, but the high number of units combined with the relatively small unit sizes was designed to keep the residences “attainable” for the target market.
Now, nearly five years later, the initial wave of resident-occupied units is being marketed at between $1.43 million to $2.57 million for two-bedrooms, two-baths — spurring questions on whether they are truly be attainable.

Dave Marrs, a member of landowner Ace Lane’s development team, said that recently a lot has changed since the Tree Farm was approved. Demand for property in the Roaring Fork Valley and other mountain resort markets soared during the pandemic and hasn’t let up, he said. Meanwhile, construction costs skyrocketed to more than $600 per square foot, not including land and other “soft costs,” he said.
“It’s really unfortunate that the market has escalated at light speed,” Marrs said.

Eagle County Commissioner Jeanne McQueeney, who voted for the project in 2017, and housing authority executive director Kim Bell Williams contend that there was and remains a place for resident-occupied housing (RO) in the effort to meet the region’s housing needs. Both officials said deed-restricted rental and for-sale units are critical to address housing, but so are RO units.
“It’s not who we maybe think of in terms of affordable housing, but our doctors, our CEOs, people that run our businesses, they need places to live as well and they can afford more than what we think of,” McQueeney said.

Hard-fought battle

The Tree Farm earned approval after a drawn-out, bare-knuckle fight between Lane’s allies and hundreds of opponents of the project. There were eight hearings by the Roaring Fork Valley Regional Planning Commission, which recommended denial, and five hearings by the county commissioners, who granted approval by a 2-1 vote.
Marrs, chief operating officer for Lane’s team, said they altered their proposal numerous times in response to comments Eagle County officials made in the hearings and in negotiations with the county staff.
The Tree Farm is located in the El Jebel area across Highway 82 from Whole Foods. Lane’s final application proposed 340 residential units and 135,000 square feet of commercial space between the highway and his water ski pond known as Kodiak Lake.
Eagle County’s code required that 25% of the residential units, or 85, be affordable housing. At one point, Lane’s application proposed 128 price-capped units and 41 RO units, far exceeding the requirement.
The county’s minutes from the June 26, 2017, county commission hearing noted that Lane spoke about his interest in housing.
“His focus was on attainable housing, and he wanted to partner with Eagle County,” the minutes said.
As the hearings were coming to a close and the commissioners were inching toward a vote, Lane and county housing authority reached an agreement for a new affordable housing plan. The Tree Farm would provide 40 price-capped rentals and 10 price-capped sales units along with 150 resident-occupied units with no caps. There was a catch. The RO units must be marketed exclusively for 60 days to people who live or work in the three counties of the Roaring Fork Valley. After that, they could be sold to any buyer from anywhere. The out-of-valley buyers would be forced to pay a 1% fee. The revenue would go into the county housing fund.
Any time an RO is resold, the 60-day marketing to local residents or workers remains in effect.
Marrs said county officials dictated the affordable housing mix.
“That’s the rules we’re playing by,” he said.
Opponents of the project criticized the affordable housing plan. They said the RO scheme wouldn’t provide any real affordable or attainable housing. The Tree Farm, critics said, would add to the valley’s affordable housing woes rather than ease them.

The ‘missing middle’

In the county’s eyes, the arrangement meant that Lane was exceeding his requirement for 85 affordable housing units. The Tree Farm received credit for the 40 rental and 10 for-sale units with price caps. The project received extra credit for committing to rent 25 of the units to households making 80% or less of the area median income. The project also received partial credit for the RO units rather than a one-for-one credit.
“They exceeded the requirement for the affordable housing guidelines,” McQueeney said. “They needed to have 85 affordable housing units and ended up with 100 (credits). So, we did end up with more. How affordable, I’m not sure. We’re in such uncharted territory with what’s happened with the market in the last year and a half.”
Marrs said it was always the Tree Farm’s intent to provide housing for people who live and work in the valley. He told the Aspen Daily News in a Nov. 30, 2019, article that the project would target the “missing middle” with the RO housing. “People don’t earn enough to go out and buy an $800,000 or $1 million home at River Valley Ranch or wherever and they make too much to qualify for affordable housing, so they’re stuck,” Marrs said then.

Big developer interest

Two Dallas firms, Realty Capital Residential and Lang Partners, are building free-market apartments and the 40 price-capped apartments on the east side of Kodiak Lake.
A different Dallas firm, Bedford Lodging, is building the 122-room Hoffman Hotel near the intersection of Willits Lane and Highway 82.
In between the hotel and apartments will be a 72-unit independent living complex for people ages 55 and older. It is being pursued by Essex Communities of Omaha.
The last major component of the project is being purchased by Brown Family Holdings, controlled by Scottsdale, Arizona, developer Walt Brown Jr. His project includes commercial space, the 10 price-capped affordable housing units and a project on the western side of the ski lake called The Lakeside — Luxury Lakefront Residences.
So far, 14 of those luxury residences have been listed in the Aspen Multiple Listing Service even though they haven’t been constructed. Those are the RO units that must be marketed for the first 60 days to residents or workers in the Roaring Fork Valley.

The least expensive of those units is a one-bedroom, one-bath residence with 722 square feet. The asking price is $963,040.
There are 11 two-bedroom, two-bath units that range from about 1,000 to 1,800 square feet. The asking prices range from $1,433,888 to $2,574,835.
A three-bath, three-bedroom unit of 1,828 square feet is listing for $2,550,060.
The 14th unit is a four-bath, three-bedroom unit of 3,287 square feet with an asking price of $5.5 million.

Will they sell?

McQueeney acknowledged that the jury is out on whether the RO units at the Tree Farm will serve the purpose intended. Just because the asking prices are high doesn’t mean the seller will receive it, she said.
“I think the numbers are very speculative,” McQueeney said. “They haven’t pulled any building permits as of yet. I suspect that the price will come down as people understand what the deed restriction really is.”
Not only must out-of-valley buyers pay the 1% fee, all units in the Tree Farm are prohibited from short-term rental for less than 30 consecutive days. McQueeney believes that will reduce the sales prices because some prospective buyers might have counted on short-term rentals to help cover their mortgages.
“Will they come down to what we were thinking back when we approved it in 2017?” she asked. “The market is considerably different. I don’t know if it is $2 million worth of difference. We’ll have to see how this really does play out when it’s actually getting built.”
Brown, the developer of the Lakeside unit, said they are already proving popular. He said there are seven reservations from people living in the Roaring Fork Valley, including some from Eagle County.
Based on the early signs, he said the RO designation is “absolutely working.”
Brown credited Lane with doing everything he could to create a project that will be something the Roaring Fork Valley is proud of and one that helps “chip away” at the affordable housing crisis.
“I think (the Tree Farm) absolutely helps,” he said. “I don’t think it gets solved overnight.”
Brown and his team are working on future phases of their part of the Tree Farm. He said it is too soon to say what the price points will be.
“Costs went up 18% this morning due to two suppliers,” he said.
Meanwhile, the price-capped sale units are a popular commodity at the Tree Farm.
“People are chomping at the bit,” Bell Williams said. The housing authority will start a waiting list for a future lottery to determine what buyers get first crack at the price-capped units.
Bell Williams is optimistic the RO units will also prove popular with “missing middle” buyers from the Roaring Fork Valley.

[The AD]

Always found Bonners Ferry to be an interesting mix; the dueling signs coming into town kinda tell the story

Across from the Golf Course:

The last one only if you agree with their take on the first four, presumably.

[yeahman]

The last one only if you agree with their take on the first four, presumably.

I was gonna say...what a crock.

[alpinevibes]

$1M for a 725 square foot condo in a brown, ugly, sprawling, congested shithole.

Right on the heels of Gorsuch making millions and throwing his hands up in the air, the Tree Farm crew suddenly double/triple/quadruples their prices as if they're still affordable...

"it's not my fault, the market made me do it!"

[skaredshtles]

$1M for a 725 square foot condo in a brown, ugly, sprawling, congested shithole. When can we start beheading the rich?

Take heart - $1M ain't really that much money any more.

[skaredshtles]

The last one only if you agree with their take on the first four, presumably.

And those neighbors had BETTER not be brown people.

[dunfree]

Take heart - $1M ain't really that much money any more.

yeah, 65 years ago that’d build a ski resort