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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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05-26-2022, 07:19 PM #21551
Real Estate Crash thread
It will be interesting to see how many WFH expats to the boonies will stay more than a year or two. A bit more obvious here in bumfuck nowhere, but I’ve seen many urban and suburban refugees head to the small town for cheaper - albeit bigger - property, partly due to money and partly due to fantasy of a perceived lifestyle. Many head back to the larger towns/smaller cities within a year or two when they realize larger houses are more expensive to heat and maintain, property (especially hobby farms) keep week + long holidays unobtainium, and the nearest small town doesn’t have the culture and amenities they realize they can’t do without. Lots of dreamers in for a rude and expensive awakening.
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05-26-2022, 07:38 PM #21552
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05-26-2022, 07:45 PM #21553
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05-26-2022, 07:53 PM #21554
The ones I saw previous to this current craze was Vancouverites or other lower mainland folk moving to Nelson and similar areas. They couldn’t move back to Vancouver without a major loss, but they did move to Kelowna and the like. That draw for Costco and a major trauma hospital helped that decision as well. Not sure where the current exodus will take them, haven’t asked, but I’ve seen several properties return to the market after their owners only staying here for 2yrs or less. And of course they have increased their asking price by 30-50% from what they purchased for. I wish them luck now.
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05-26-2022, 07:56 PM #21555
Possibly as that is not what i was trying to convey when I said outlying areas. Using San Diego as an example, the communities say an hours drive from downtown SD will go down in value before areas 15 minutes from down town. Outlying areas have historically corrected first and most, then condos. This is underwriting 101.
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05-26-2022, 08:02 PM #21556
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05-26-2022, 08:10 PM #21557
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05-26-2022, 10:11 PM #21558
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05-27-2022, 02:57 PM #21559
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/h...163652503.html
"The housing market has peaked…everything points to a rolling over of the housing market," Zandi says. "In terms of home sales, they're falling sharply. Housing demand is coming down fast. Home price growth [will] go flat here pretty quickly; we will see [home] price declines in a significant number of markets."
Over the coming 12 months, he expects year-over-year home price growth to be 0%. If that comes to fruition, it'd mark the worst 12-month stretch since 2012. It would also be whiplash for real estate agents and brokers who've watched home prices soar 19.8% over the past year."We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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05-27-2022, 03:27 PM #21560
Whiplash is very necessary. Holding flat would be a blessing. Without outright declines in value, it will still take years for affordability to get back to trend. Modest outright declines, like 2018, would even be ok.
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05-27-2022, 08:39 PM #21561
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05-27-2022, 09:13 PM #21562
Friend works in automated appraisals for banks and they’re gearing up for a lot more REO’s
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05-27-2022, 09:55 PM #21563
More gloom
The real estate buying frenzy is over
"The buyers just stopped buying," said Shauna Pendleton, an agent with Redfin in Boise, Idaho, until recently one of the hottest markets in the country. "Californication," as she called it, drove an influx of buyers from the West coast, flush with cash courtesy of the also formerly booming stock market.
Some listings now sit for weeks without even a showing, she said; like this 4-bedroom priced at $899,000; 42 days without a look-see.
https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/the...frenzy-is-over
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05-28-2022, 07:29 AM #21564
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05-28-2022, 08:09 AM #21565
Boise, like Bozeman was never sustainable at the rate prices were increasing. See if/how much prices decline.
I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.
"Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"
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05-28-2022, 08:53 AM #21566Hucked to flat once
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Can’t site the source, maybe something I heard on the radio but Boise now has the most overvalued property in the US. We went from 1-2 listing at >$1m within a couple miles of my house a year ago to multiple listings under. Still overpriced imo, but we’re definitely seeing a shift.
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05-28-2022, 09:18 AM #21567man of ice
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Neighbor's house here went on the market 9 days ago for a lot of money. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Realtor showing a couple the place right now but they're the first ones I've seen, they're definitely not lining up to see it so far.
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05-28-2022, 09:54 AM #21568
These guys make that claim
https://business.fau.edu/executive-e...-100/index.php
it gets widely cited in the media. They use aggregate price data and deviation from the long term price trend to determine overvalued so #99 is Honolulu, #100 Baltimore
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05-28-2022, 10:17 AM #21569I drink it up
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05-31-2022, 11:56 AM #21570
There's certainly a shift happening. A shift back closer to normal though. Increased DOM, price drops, etc. The last two years were so abnormal that using that as a barometer is just silly. Sure, every single listing including tear downs isn't going for 50k over asking in 12 hours anymore.....that doesn't mean we are "crashing" or remotely close. We are still so far behind on inventory. Home values will still appreciate but growth rate will slow and that's perfectly fine.
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05-31-2022, 12:35 PM #21571
^^^ I think that's a good take. And comps will be more comparable. For instance, people here were pricing at what the neighbors got per sq ft - even when their houses were in much worse condition. Hopefully we'll return to the idea that deficiencies have a cost.
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05-31-2022, 12:43 PM #21572
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05-31-2022, 07:45 PM #21573Registered User
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Real Estate Crash thread
Spokane prices are still way high compared to what they should be but there’s like 10x more active listings right now than I’ve seen since March 2020. Including in some pretty attractive neighborhoods where they’d be gone immediately over the last couple years.
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05-31-2022, 08:05 PM #21574
I would be curious to know which type of class of owner they expect the highest rate of default? It seems like the banks were fairly conservative with lending, and most owners have such low rates that defaults for primary residences would seem low. It seems like there have to be cracks somewhere due to the massive price increases. Maybe STR's where the rents just don't make the property profitable and a ton of inventory comes on all at once?
Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.
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05-31-2022, 08:45 PM #21575
Abnormal the last two years also doesn’t mean normal. Stocks gave back a bunch why shouldn’t houses? Still go up in what time frame? Months? Years? Once psychology shifts and people sense prices dropping they’ll pull back. Just like 2019 pre-pandemic which was soft.
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