Real Estate Crash thread

[sirbumpsalot]

Paul Solman is always great to hear from.

Interesting that the one sale they featured was to a retired SF cop. Just one of a ton of really good pensions and lucrative savings opportunities that California state, municipal, and academic workers walk away with. There's a ton of that comfortable Boomer money flowing around the west with a really nice house sale lump sum added to dive into a cash sale with. The California taxpayer should be proud.

I don't know....just be glad your tax dollars aren't pay for that!

[Benny Profane]

Buy a cheap condo in VT or upstate. Enjoy the good days they do have there. And when it's shitty, jet across the pond.

My buddy bought an older two bedroom on Rt. 4 between Rutland and Killington for nothing a few years ago, dropped 30 grand into a kitchen and bathroom. I finally get to stay there, and, as I'm parking, he says, don't leave anything exposed in the car, there's been, you know, incidents, like, it's Newark or something. The next day I'm watching a guy while I'm parked go in and out of another building, and damn if he wasn't a stone cold junkie. A few of the now worthless motels and hotels on 4 are servicing the homeless set, state sponsored, and the other motels that operated into the 90s are just dead and rotting.
Vermont is going to the same place the Catskills landed in the 80s. Not a smart RE investment. Which is ok, it's just a place to sleep and eat with wi-fi, but, I lived around junkies once, and, never again, especially at my age. Its ugly.

[Benny Profane]

Pathetic envy isn’t a good look for you.

Hmmm...government pension? Cost of living adjustments??

Man, would I love to have COLA in my pension. Hooboy. But, I worked in the private sector. No 25 and out and a sweet overtime padded COLA adjusted pension here. My aunt was right when she sat me down as a college kid. Civil Service. That's how you'll live and retire comfortably. Damn, she was right.

[Meadow Skipper]

I guess you make your choices and live with them.

Probably shouldn’t criticize others for theirs.

[Toadman]

Hey now... STFU. We're trying to be helpful here.

Hey man, I'm all for Westerners moving to VT, NH, ME. GTFO of my state and don't come back!!!

[altasnob]

I'm sorry, but I get a bout of schadenfreude watching red states Idaho and Utah deal with exploding real estate prices, and the inequality that comes with it. Rather than do anything to address the problem I am sure they will just blame it all on CA transplants or do like Benny, and say it it's the fault of government pensions and strong unions.

Oh, and Benny, you do realize that affluent neighborhoods in Seattle and San Francisco have way more property crimes and junkies than anything in VT? We're talking multi-million dollar homes with streets lined with broken glass and some guy passed in the bushes.

[Conundrum]

I wouldn't limit the blame to California.

[mcphee]

it has to awful to live in absolute fear of others and regretful of all their own choices. is that what happens when you live your life reading articles and posting the regurgitated opinions of others as your own?

Bless his heart.

[Timberridge]

I dunno whether to file this under "renters insurance" or whatever, but this seems to be a good way to start the transition from renting to owning.
https://www.businessinsider.com/pers...t-loans-2021-8

[sirbumpsalot]

Here you go benny.....next hot spot...get in early. Minutes from Discovery Ski Area. Fully furnished.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7...0701472_zpid/?

[Benny Profane]

I'm sorry, but I get a bout of schadenfreude watching red states Idaho and Utah deal with exploding real estate prices, and the inequality that comes with it. Rather than do anything to address the problem I am sure they will just blame it all on CA transplants or do like Benny, and say it it's the fault of government pensions and strong unions.

Oh, and Benny, you do realize that affluent neighborhoods in Seattle and San Francisco have way more property crimes and junkies than anything in VT? We're talking multi-million dollar homes with streets lined with broken glass and some guy passed in the bushes.

If they aren't California transplants, then who are they? The Boise local? For fucks sake. Boise can't support $600,000 homes like the one featured. It just went through a near depression, in a sense, with the housing bubble popping. It was one of the worst cities hit out west. Billions, maybe, of value was destructed.
CALPERS had 380 billion dollars in assets in 2018, but, that doesn't capture the true magnitude of their economic power, because they are essentially underfunded at that level, so they are paying out much more than they can cover in liabilities right now, in the great Boomer retirement wave, and, as I said, throw hot sauce on that with COLA bonuses to the very well compensated in old age former employees. Hey, really, lucky them, I have a pension, too, and most people don't, so, I appreciate the luxury, but don't ignore the fact that that is an enormous amount of money flooding the real estate markets in places like Boise, along with the California house sale, which is, what, about a million in a nice place? Add to that the very well retired academic employees, and, just successful private business winners, throw in all the tax advantages the government STILL allows for RE, and, of course you're buying a second home or downsizing like a King.

Dude, really, I've lived all over the NY region and in the city all my life. I know cities. But, Vermont is different. In a way, it's much more depressing, because there ain't shit as far as some way to climb out of a hole. Imagine being on Methadone or whatever they do to junkies on parole these days, stuck in an old motel on a highway, with no car, just a bus.

Fireline Road.

[Bunion 2020]

I'm sorry, but I get a bout of schadenfreude watching red states Idaho and Utah deal with exploding real estate prices, and the inequality that comes with it. Rather than do anything to address the problem I am sure they will just blame it all on CA transplants or do like Benny, and say it it's the fault of government pensions and strong unions.

Montana as well. The local paper FB page is filled with Bennies bitching about the "other" even though the "other" is just as white as they are except they have more $$$ and are or may be Libs.

[altasnob]

The story of the West real estate in a nutshell is internet gets invented, Bay Area gets expensive. Then Seattle. Then Denver. Then Portland and SLC. Now Boise, Spokane, Missoula, Bozeman. Is this really a California's problem? I'm just tired of "all these Californians are ruining everything" narrative. And I am fourth generation PNWer, so I am supposed to hate people from CA. But places like Boise saw this coming, and need to figure it out. I am sure there are ignorant shits there that would like to somehow ban Californians from moving there, as if that would solve everything. British Columbia tried that by passing laws that make it more expensive for foreigners to buy real estate. I don't think laws like this are an answer.

[Kevo]

The BC government was complicit in helping Chinese organized criminals launder many billions of dollars into their real estate market through local casinos. They should have made it more difficult for foreign "investors" a long time ago. They sold out an entire generation (and all subsequent generations) to Chinese criminals. Same story happened in Toronto, London, Auckland, Sydney, Melbourne, etc. Not always the same players, but always the same game.

I do find it funny when people who worship at the altar of the free market get fucked over and outcompeted by the free market. There's a lot of that happening in Idaho at the moment.

[altasnob]

That's true that Chinese criminals benefited from Canadian real estate. Same can be said about US EB-5 visa (given when you bring lots of cash and jobs to the US; see below). But how can you pass a law that makes it so only locals get to buy real estate and out of towners somehow have to pay more? How do you draw the line between investor and local? Rossland, BC, and other Canadian towns, have anti-American laws where they make it more costly or difficult to short term rental your place if you are an American. They don't specifically state American in the law, but that's the target.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...ars-in-prison/

[abraham]

The story of the West real estate in a nutshell is internet gets invented, Bay Area gets expensive. Then Seattle. Then Denver. Then Portland and SLC. Now Boise, Spokane, Missoula, Bozeman. Is this really a California's problem? I'm just tired of "all these Californians are ruining everything" narrative. And I am fourth generation PNWer, so I am supposed to hate people from CA. But places like Boise saw this coming, and need to figure it out. I am sure there are ignorant shits there that would like to somehow ban Californians from moving there, as if that would solve everything. British Columbia tried that by passing laws that make it more expensive for foreigners to buy real estate. I don't think laws like this are an answer.

I think this story would be good to tell using Butte.

[dunfree]

I do find it funny when people who worship at the altar of the free market get fucked over and outcompeted by the free market. There's a lot of that happening in Idaho at the moment.

I enjoy the schadenfreude too, but they don’t actually worship the free market and never did. Most “free marketers” are more like car dealership owners - they want the profits from their nice little bit of reduced competition business, and want the state to keep interfering to keep it that way.

[muted reborn]

I do find it funny when people who worship at the altar of the free market get fucked over and outcompeted by the free market. There's a lot of that happening in Idaho at the moment.

Are we talking about 'wealthy out-of-towners moving in to Idaho and pricing out local long-time blue collar workers' type of schadenfreude or something else?

[Ted Striker]

I enjoy the schadenfreude too, but they don’t actually worship the free market and never did. Most “free marketers” are more like car dealership owners - they want the profits from their nice little bit of reduced competition business, and want the state to keep interfering to keep it that way.

Bingo

[Kevo]

That's true that Chinese criminals benefited from Canadian real estate. Same can be said about US EB-5 visa (given when you bring lots of cash and jobs to the US; see below). But how can you pass a law that makes it so only locals get to buy real estate and out of towners somehow have to pay more? How do you draw the line between investor and local? Rossland, BC, and other Canadian towns, have anti-American laws where they make it more costly or difficult to short term rental your place if you are an American. They don't specifically state American in the law, but that's the target.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...ars-in-prison/

Legal residency in the country seems like a good bar to set. The Cook Islands requires people to be legal residents of the Cook Islands in order to buy property. It's the only island nation I've been to where locals/natives can own and pass down property based on the local economy. It's honestly a great policy- there are no mega resorts. There are young families living on the beach who make maybe $20k per year in what would be Hawaii real estate prices if foreign investors could buy in.

[altasnob]

There are over 10 million illegals living in the US in the moment, mainly cleaning houses and doing roofing in Teton Valley. Are you going to tell them they can't buy a house? Are you going to let the rich kid from China who is here on a education visa buy a house because they are here legal? The Chinese criminals exploiting Vancouver real estate and that Tibetan dude who ripped off everyone in Bellevue were are in their respective countries legally. Illegals are the poor of the poor and it would do nothing to real estate prices if we prevented them from buying property.

[skaredshtles]

Hmmm...government pension? Cost of living adjustments??

Man, would I love to have COLA in my pension. Hooboy. But, I worked in the private sector. No 25 and out and a sweet overtime padded COLA adjusted pension here. My aunt was right when she sat me down as a college kid. Civil Service. That's how you'll live and retire comfortably. Damn, she was right.

You got a fuckin' PENSION? All this whining and moaning and we find out you got a fuckin' PENSION??

[Benny Profane]

Pocket change. Compared to the net worth of TGR hoi polloi. And no COLA. Thank god for no inflation. Except for ski town RE.

[Core Shot]

I left Big Sky last month with $$$$$ in my pocket.

A) loving it here in Northern Wisconsin (hour southeast of Duluth)

B) holy shit real estate arbitrage is incredible. Sold a 1-bd slopeside condo and buying dentist level waterfront house.

I’m in my 60s and slowing down. Doubt I could ski 100+ days a season into my 90s. But I can certainly putt putt around in a pontoon boat at that age. Plus the Nordic skiing here in really really nice. I’m happy I made the move.


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Good on ya mate.

Sometimes in life you need to downshift. Enjoy.

[liv2ski]

NO inflation? Are we in the same country.