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  1. #7576
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    30-50% in the luxury stuff out here seems pretty reasonable. The closer you get to being affordable at median HH income the more resilient the market will be. Pretty important in terms of expectation mgmt. And in Boston or major NE cities there's a much deeper pool of buyers higher up the value spectrum. >600k market seems very slow here while >1M market seems dead. Things still move briskly sub 400k though. Charles Dickens market.

  2. #7577
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Very difficult to imagine a big pull back of 30%+ on values without huge job losses or banks failing right and left. In a recession, with continued low inventories for sale, maybe flat to a little lower in the next 12 months, but not by much.

    CA did just pass state wide rent control, so that will likely slow down investors buying anything with a tenant in it.
    Iím sensing youíre hoping it doesnít rather than looking objectively. Why in a recession would there be low inventory? Iíd speculate inventory going up like last time with people trying to cash a depreciating asset- or simply cannot afford the payment on their underwater home.

    Cushy redundant tech jobs at 250k a pop will start vaporizing when companies donít receive the earnings. Multiply that by other industries that will be affected. Then household frivolous spending drastically slows and itís a house of cards..

  3. #7578
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    Iíve read quite a bit in here might have missed it but didnít recall seeing this.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ousing-market/

  4. #7579
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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    I’m sensing you’re hoping it doesn’t rather than looking objectively. Why in a recession would there be low inventory? I’d speculate inventory going up like last time with people trying to cash a depreciating asset- or simply cannot afford the payment on their underwater home.

    Cushy redundant tech jobs at 250k a pop will start vaporizing when companies don’t receive the earnings. Multiply that by other industries that will be affected. Then household frivolous spending drastically slows and it’s a house of cards..
    I hope you're right, I just don't see it happening.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  5. #7580
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    I hope you're right, I just don't see it happening.
    Did you see credit default swaps coming?

    Of course you didnít - no one knew except a small percent of the Wall Street types. Whatís lurking below the surface of this already obviously precarious market?
    What will it all look like after Don waives his magical wand at the financial system? (As seems heís about to make a hudge overhaul with his financial cronyís)
    Will he make his 5th bankruptcy everyoneís problem?
    I know he has a knack for being a market leader like when he opened Trump Mortgage services in mid 2006. But I feel like his heart just isnít in the right place these days.

    Anyhow, Iím not arguing and letís be observant.

  6. #7581
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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    Cushy redundant tech jobs at 250k a pop will start vaporizing when companies don’t receive the earnings. Multiply that by other industries that will be affected. Then household frivolous spending drastically slows and it’s a house of cards..
    So what? Do you think the people living in Seattle want to move somewhere else? Where? Repeat it for any of the booming west coast & sunbelt metro areas you want.

    It should be clear by now that the '08 crash wasn't the same everywhere. Someplaces like CT never recovered because those cushy finance jobs never came back to CT and there was nothing else in CT and noone really wanted to live in CT (see masses of people on TGR who grew up in CT and moved away and get offended by you calling it a shithole). Other places the dip was momentary (Seattle, Bay Area) because they are still desirable places to live. Desires change over time of course, but do you see a mass migration of the US population back to the rust belt?

  7. #7582
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    YoY monthly sales data from Redfin

    Click image for larger version. 

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  8. #7583
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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    Did you see credit default swaps coming?
    Yup. When I saw all the banks roll out the Liar Loans in 2003/04 I closed my mortgage company down, as I didn't want to risk huge buy backs on fraudulent origination's. That never happened, buybacks that is, so I should of stayed open. Instead I went to work for a bank as a wholesale AE. During my interview I told the VP that when all those loans blew up in a few years, I would handle their REOs for them. She gave me a horrified look and said "don't ever say that to anyone at the bank".
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  9. #7584
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    Housing prices are mildly dumb everywhere, but I have yet to hear of weird products driving it, more a lot of cash from investors.
    If anything, a few VCs and F100s will collapse, but there's plenty of healthy balance sheets out there.

  10. #7585
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    So what? Do you think the people living in Seattle want to move somewhere else? Where? Repeat it for any of the booming west coast & sunbelt metro areas you want.

    It should be clear by now that the '08 crash wasn't the same everywhere. Someplaces like CT never recovered because those cushy finance jobs never came back to CT and there was nothing else in CT and noone really wanted to live in CT (see masses of people on TGR who grew up in CT and moved away and get offended by you calling it a shithole). Other places the dip was momentary (Seattle, Bay Area) because they are still desirable places to live. Desires change over time of course, but do you see a mass migration of the US population back to the rust belt?
    I don't know. If there is a tech implosion , a lot of those people are suddenly going to get real tired of living in a place where it rains all the time, because then they'll have time to go outside, being jobless and all.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  11. #7586
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    There will be some localised crashes, including California (where it actually happens a lot), Denver, and maybe ski towns. The national market won't crash. It did that ten years ago.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  12. #7587
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    There will be some localised crashes, including California (where it actually happens a lot), Denver, and maybe ski towns. The national market won't crash. It did that ten years ago.
    Denver won't crash until folks stop moving out from CA. They still think homes in Denver are cheap (which they are comparatively speaking).

  13. #7588
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    The recession will bring on localised crashes, like in 91.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  14. #7589
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    I don't know. If there is a tech implosion , a lot of those people are suddenly going to get real tired of living in a place where it rains all the time, because then they'll have time to go outside, being jobless and all.
    It doesnít rain there all the time anymore. #thanksglobalwarming

  15. #7590
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    There will be some localised crashes, including California (where it actually happens a lot), Denver, and maybe ski towns. The national market won't crash. It did that ten years ago.
    Huh. When's the last time you were in a ski town? Explain please

    Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app

  16. #7591
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    Quote Originally Posted by neufox47 View Post
    It doesn’t rain there all the time anymore. #thanksglobalwarming
    The next rainforest is gonna be New England.
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  17. #7592
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    Huh. When's the last time you were in a ski town? Explain please

    Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app
    That shit ain't going up forever.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  18. #7593
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    It is here, there is only 3% of developable land in the county, and we have cool summers and lots of fresh water.

    I guess the Supernova could put an end to it.
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  19. #7594
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    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    Huh. When's the last time you were in a ski town? Explain please

    Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app
    Millennials canít afford a primary residence. How they gonna by a 2nd home?
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  20. #7595
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    The recession will bring on localised crashes
    You would know.

  21. #7596
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    Quote Originally Posted by ColMan View Post
    Denver won't crash until folks stop moving out from CA. They still think homes in Denver are cheap (which they are comparatively speaking).
    yeah, it's totally California's fault says someone on the board with dozens of people from the midwest/eastcoast that have moved to CO for every one person from CA.

  22. #7597
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    It is here, there is only 3% of developable land in the county, and we have cool summers and lots of fresh water.

    I guess the Supernova could put an end to it.
    Well, Jackson, yeah, supply and demand for a place that has two spectacular national parks. Which is good, god forbid it turns into Summit County.

    You are sitting on a big flat volcano, though.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  23. #7598
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    You would know.
    It happens, amigo. Boston and NY in 91, including the NE ski market, California maybe four times. 08 is in everybody's memory because it was nearly nationwide, which was a first. Actually, international, including disasters in Ireland and Spain at the time. Now Denver wasn't hit hard because it didn't bubble. Well, now it is. Guess whats next? After all the jobs go away.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  24. #7599
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    Millennials canít afford a primary residence. How they gonna by a 2nd home?
    every day a 1000 new trust fund millenials are minted the average Joe ain't ski town material

    Sent from my SM-J737V using TGR Forums mobile app

  25. #7600
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    It happens, amigo. Boston and NY in 91, including the NE ski market, California maybe four times. 08 is in everybody's memory because it was nearly nationwide, which was a first. Actually, international, including disasters in Ireland and Spain at the time. Now Denver wasn't hit hard because it didn't bubble. Well, now it is. Guess whats next? After all the jobs go away.
    I agree just giving you shit. Denver is overpriced imo relative to what it offers. Same for Seattle & SF. The caveat being westward migration... people have caught on to the quality of life in the sunny states. Price appreciation trends are heavily favored towards the West this cycle while the Southeast has been stable and NE struggling to reclaim prior highs. As you say, it's likely that downside volatility will correspond to where the appreciation took place the last 10 years.

    The world is complex and it's understandably tough to envision a world different than it is today (applies to those who 'can't see' current environment shifting).

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