Real Estate Crash thread

[ticketchecker]

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[Vt-Freeheel]

Yea, it's like when you bought that Range Rover on an 84 month loan and after 4 years it was valued at 60% of the purchase price so the bank gave you $2000 and the title.

[Name Redacted]

I'm all for a good old fashioned toilet flush. This town could use one. Shit built up too much with keeping interest rates low for way too long, allowing people to invest in things they shouldn't be investing in. Throwing gas on a fire that didn't need it, just so the party wouldn't end. Now the hangover.

[snowaddict91]

I don't think too many people will loose too much sleep if the greasy hustle known as highly leveraged STR gets their house of cards knocked down. Stereotypically, these people are so entitled. They think they are savy business people but when they open their mouths you realize that they never even consider downside risk.

They love to say things like, "you can't do that"...um, yeah we can. Just in the last week I've heard that, "the voluntary watering restrictions affect my curb appeal and cash flow" and "the parking regulations prohibiting street parking are not compatible with my business model" and "I don't think I should have to pay the overage fees on my water bill because it was my renters and I can't control them".

Good lord people are short-sighted. And stupid.

Personally, I got out of my place a little too soon in SLC to fully capitalize on the boom, but currently I'm sitting on a very reasonable mortgage, a chunk of savings in the bank, and no debt other than student loans. Bring on the crash, I'm right where I want to be.

[up an down]

The northern Illinois farmhouse with a couple sheds and a few acres that I inherited with my siblings is on schedule to close... It took about 5 weeks listing time and a lot of showings...no offers..then a 5% price reduction..and then 3 offers quickly.. Within a few thousand of the asking price and a $5 k earnest deposit..and we quickly accepted.. We feel lucky to find a buyer... Financial mood in this area is extremely cautious to pessimistic.

[skaredshtles]

The northern Illinois farmhouse with a couple sheds and a few acres that I inherited with my siblings is on schedule to close... It took about 5 weeks listing time and a lot of showings...no offers..then a 5% price reduction..and then 3 offers quickly.. Within a few thousand of the asking price and a $5 k earnest deposit..and we quickly accepted.. We feel lucky to find a buyer... Financial mood in this area is extremely cautious to pessimistic.

Was back in rural Michigan for a week recently and there are a lot of houses, cars, and RV's/trailers for sale anecdotally from just driving around for a few days.

[up an down]

Was back in rural Michigan for a week recently and there are a lot of houses, cars, and RV's/trailers for sale anecdotally from just driving around for a few days.

3 vacant houses, with yard high lawn grass, in my immediate nice middle class area where I live.

[Name Redacted]

Good lord people are short-sighted. And stupid.

Personally, I got out of my place a little too soon in SLC to fully capitalize on the boom, but currently I'm sitting on a very reasonable mortgage, a chunk of savings in the bank, and no debt other than student loans. Bring on the crash, I'm right where I want to be.

Good for you, I love the Montrose area. Same for us here. There will always be idiots, but I'd like to hope and think that the last recession taught people some lessons that helped them avoid getting over-leveraged these last few years, but I'm probably dead wrong.

I'm so glad to have stepped out of the STR/RE game at what I think was just the right time. Bought on a 5/1 ARM, sold it at five years. Paid for itself the whole time by STRing on weekends and holidays, while we used it for work during the week in the winter. We had a plan and executed it almost perfectly. Chose not to 1031 because the RE market was too crazy so we will pay those taxes, but I think we would have overpaid by more than taxes just to get into the next property anyway. Instead we invested in something else.

[Mazderati]

Place I was watching on the north shore of MA recently closed 40% over ask and still needed extensive rehab. Old, good bones, and curb appeal even in its current state but no trendy address or water view that would seem to make it extra desirable.

[fastfred]

I think my $650.00 month mortgage plus taxes insurance and hoa sets me back 1200 a month I'm concerned
but today I'll keep on keep on smoking dope and rubbing shoulders with the money crowd I learned how to steer clear of fake money if your house isn't valued at over 5 million I'll pass

[up an down]

A friend of mine is selling this place...."47-235 Kamehameha Hwy, Kaneohe, HI 96744 | MLS #202211523 | Zillow" https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4...4/648721_zpid/..... after over 30 years in Hawaii.. .. moving back to mainland....I have stayed there often as I can get away for many years... 😢😢😢😢.. oh well... Life goes on

[stapes]

The northern Illinois farmhouse with a couple sheds and a few acres that I inherited with my siblings is on schedule to close... It took about 5 weeks listing time and a lot of showings...no offers..then a 5% price reduction..and then 3 offers quickly.. Within a few thousand of the asking price and a $5 k earnest deposit..and we quickly accepted.. We feel lucky to find a buyer... Financial mood in this area is extremely cautious to pessimistic.

Curious whereabouts in IL if you’re comfortable sharing…

I’m from central IL and wife from N IL. Most of family still back there. During thick of Covid I was looking at properties w/ acreage etc for the heck of it. Galena area mostly.

Not sure I could hack it bac there though…

[up an down]

Curious whereabouts in IL if you’re comfortable sharing…

I’m from central IL and wife from N IL. Most of family still back there. During thick of Covid I was looking at properties w/ acreage etc for the heck of it. Galena area mostly.

Not sure I could hack it bac there though…

Farmhouse is at zip code 61006.. I live 40 miles north of there.

[Toadman]

When we built our house in 2018, we locked in our construction and perm rate before we ever broke ground.

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Ditto.

And for everyone cheering for the STR market to implode, that will need to involve lots of folks not taking vacations this winter and those STR's racking up lots of un-booked days. Not sure that's going to happen. But we should know in a few months if this market volatility is just transitory or something more sinister.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Inventory increasing at a furious pace:

[XXX-er]

Ditto.

And for everyone cheering for the STR market to implode, that will need to involve lots of folks not taking vacations this winter and those STR's racking up lots of un-booked days. Not sure that's going to happen. But we should know in a few months if this market volatility is just transitory or something more sinister.

didn't it already implode during covid lockdown ?

[concretejungle]

didn't it already implode during covid lockdown ?

For like two weeks here in Bozeman. The str behind my house seems to be booked solid with yuppies from CA and WA.

[Core Shot]

Farmhouse is at zip code 61006.. I live 40 miles north of there.

That’s a nice area. Flat and boring though.
Other than the rivers.

Grew up pretty near where you are.

My hometown? Downtown and west side is so shitty there now.
East side is exploding with strip malls and waddlers.

Country living is so much better. Might get back that way someday.

[liv2ski]

Interesting

Zohal Habibi hadn’t even moved into her new home in the suburbs of Toronto when she started regretting the purchase. “We took a very bad decision,” she says.

It’s not about the house itself. She and her husband are excited about the extra space it’ll give them and their two young kids. The problem is the price they agreed to pay for the three-bedroom home in March: $920,000 (US$711,000).

Not long after, prices started to slide, and quickly. By the time their lender got around to appraising the house in May, it marked the value down to $800,000. A second appraisal a few weeks later was even grimmer -- $740,000.

Legally bound to the deal but no longer able to obtain a big enough loan to go through with it, the couple pleaded with the seller to nudge down the price. On Thursday, they closed at $810,000. “We didn’t know that the market would crash,” Habibi says.

All across greater Toronto, until recently the epicenter of a national housing boom with few peers anywhere, similar tales are piling up. The specifics can vary: from someone who bought a new house before selling their old one and now can’t get as much money as they were counting on, to situations like Habibi’s, where the appraisals that determine the maximum mortgage size come in far below the agreed-to price, to simple cases of buyer’s remorse.

But they all amount to one thing: Sellers must agree to a lower price, fast. That’s contributed to home values in metropolitan Toronto declining at an unusually rapid clip — the average selling price is down nearly 9 per cent in three months. And with the pain now spreading to other parts of Canada, such distress threatens to both accelerate and deepen a housing market decline that’s already underway. On Wednesday, the national benchmark home price posted its second straight monthly decline, with many of the small cities and towns that saw the biggest gains on the way up now correcting fast.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/distress...rket-1.1780269

[anotherVTskibum]

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That may seem terrifying to read, but the truly scary part is that the person asking the question has distinguished themselves by actually asking it. If someone asked it, how many other people are thinking something similar but didn't bother asking?

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[Kevo]

Interesting

Zohal Habibi hadn’t even moved into her new home in the suburbs of Toronto when she started regretting the purchase. “We took a very bad decision,” she says.

It’s not about the house itself. She and her husband are excited about the extra space it’ll give them and their two young kids. The problem is the price they agreed to pay for the three-bedroom home in March: $920,000 (US$711,000).

Not long after, prices started to slide, and quickly. By the time their lender got around to appraising the house in May, it marked the value down to $800,000. A second appraisal a few weeks later was even grimmer -- $740,000.

Legally bound to the deal but no longer able to obtain a big enough loan to go through with it, the couple pleaded with the seller to nudge down the price. On Thursday, they closed at $810,000. “We didn’t know that the market would crash,” Habibi says.

All across greater Toronto, until recently the epicenter of a national housing boom with few peers anywhere, similar tales are piling up. The specifics can vary: from someone who bought a new house before selling their old one and now can’t get as much money as they were counting on, to situations like Habibi’s, where the appraisals that determine the maximum mortgage size come in far below the agreed-to price, to simple cases of buyer’s remorse.

But they all amount to one thing: Sellers must agree to a lower price, fast. That’s contributed to home values in metropolitan Toronto declining at an unusually rapid clip — the average selling price is down nearly 9 per cent in three months. And with the pain now spreading to other parts of Canada, such distress threatens to both accelerate and deepen a housing market decline that’s already underway. On Wednesday, the national benchmark home price posted its second straight monthly decline, with many of the small cities and towns that saw the biggest gains on the way up now correcting fast.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/distress...rket-1.1780269

Mortgage rates in Canada are going up at an unbelievable clip.

The Loonie Hour Podcast offers an interesting take on Canadian real estate and Canadian finance.

Next year or the year after could be a great opportunity for someone who can legally buy property in Canada who earns income in USD....if they can convince their Canadian significant other.

[liv2ski]

Thanks for the laugh Kevo, I really needed that.

[Jax]

Rode through the exclusive 'Sanctuary' neighborhood yesterday. Not an area known for STR, these are mostly wealthy second or third home owners and the homes are vacant almost year-round aside from the holidays. Saw back-to-back for sale signs, like 6 in a row. It wasn't that way 2 weeks ago. Just an observation.

[m2711c]

so what are the rules that must be complied with to legally buy property in Canada when your income was earned in USD?

[gretch6364]

Still not much inventory here, especially single family homes. Condos at $700 per sq ft and single family at $900 plus.

Been really tough for working middle class when 3bd 2bth homes are $2MM+ and there is only one or two on the market.

I am not one hoping for a collapse (although not a fan of what STR market has done to the mountain towns) and for people that over stretched to get hurt. Some made really bad decisions as usual, but some people just did their best to buy a home and prices were so darn high it was easier to make that mistake.

That said, at least here, I can’t foresee a major collapse. There is real old wealth that drives the Aspen market that trickles down the road. We bought in 2018 with 20% down, locked in a good rate and current “values” have us at double what we paid.

People have not been selling because there is no way you can find another place without moving down valley. Yes, it would be great to have the cash, but we would rather stay where we are.


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