Real Estate Crash thread

[skiballs]

Contractions will be coming soon.


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[Benny Profane]

Methinks Fred is not familiar with what a middle manager is.

[fastfred]

How late?

25 mins forgot I needed to take the dog for a poop loop before we headed out didn't want him to shit in a random flower bed in a neighborhood filled with 5-10 mil $ houses

Contractions will be coming soon.


lk

can't wait bring it on soon, still betting on october 2021

Methinks Fred is not familiar with what a middle manager is.

you win benny, I just thought it sounded good I have no clue what middle managment means just sounded right

[skiballs]

can't wait bring it on soon, still betting on october 2021

Congrats, boy or girl?


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[Foggy_Goggles]

But Fred, Fred, Fred, calm down. My point is, at a certain point in life, a "professional" couple shouldn't be blowing 30 grand of post tax income every year on a rental. They should be owning.

You wanna hash that out a bit or is there no more room on the back of your napkin? With the increase in the standard deduction, homeownership isn't really that tax advantaged. If you like the risk adjusted rate of return of residential realestate, there is more than one way to skin that cat.

Once we start adding appreciation into the affordable housing "right", we end up with policies like the tax payers funding guaranteed increases in value like they did in the last recession. "Thanks for the discounted mortgage, can I have the payout from my above market savings account please? I'm gonna bounce and move to Florida.

[fastfred]

Congrats, boy or girl?


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shit I thought you were using big phrases like market contractions
you were talking about the preggo sex I've been having

[Benny Profane]

You wanna hash that out a bit or is there no more room on the back of your napkin? With the increase in the standard deduction, homeownership isn't really that tax advantaged. If you like the risk adjusted rate of return of residential realestate, there is more than one way to skin that cat.

Once we start adding appreciation into the affordable housing "right", we end up with policies like the tax payers funding guaranteed increases in value like they did in the last recession. "Thanks for the discounted mortgage, can I have the payout from my above market savings account please? I'm gonna bounce and move to Florida.

Well, at least after, say, five years, you aren't walking away from that residence 150,000 poorer. You've got something. If you're going to pay rent, keep it down. Like I said, you're just paying for landlords Bobby and Nancy's house, and what do you get?

Everybody gets old. You don't want to be renting at a late age in this kind of market. But, of course, it will have no effect on their oh so important credit rating. Might even help their score. Yay. You'll be in debt to the grave, but, credit cards will be easy to get.

[Meadow Skipper]

“ A damaged Colorado Springs home, marketed as “a slice of hell,” has sold for well above its asking price and in less than a week after the property’s listing went viral.”

Asking price was $590k.

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/06/1...-asking-price/

[dan_pdx]

$800k for a long in the tooth mobile home in North Bend, anyone?
https://www.redfin.com/WA/North-Bend.../home/55551964

Security camera monitor in the kitchen is a nice touch - do you think they're cooking meth or growing weed?

[Jong Lafitte]

$800k for a long in the tooth mobile home in North Bend, anyone?
https://www.redfin.com/WA/North-Bend.../home/55551964

Security camera monitor in the kitchen is a nice touch - do you think they're cooking meth or growing weed?

Woahhh!!!! I could party there.


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[SKIP IN7RO]

No diving board, I'm out.

[Jong Lafitte]

Mele Kalikimaka!!!!!


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[CovertM]

Sure, but, what killed me was the salary = three times rent and a minimum 680 credit score. Not dirtbag material.

Got an unfinished 1k sq/ft barn in the RF Valley you can have all winter for $3k a month (not including PortaJohn rental, on you). But, I’ll need to see credit score and salary or 100x 12 months rent in invested assets. Beautiful loft and great insulation. Could negotiate for adding a wood stove prior to your arrival. Concrete floor should be poured by August, otherwise gravel floor is plush and pliable.

[neufox47]

Well, at least after, say, five years, you aren't walking away from that residence 150,000 poorer. You've got something. If you're going to pay rent, keep it down. Like I said, you're just paying for landlords Bobby and Nancy's house, and what do you get?

Everybody gets old. You don't want to be renting at a late age in this kind of market. But, of course, it will have no effect on their oh so important credit rating. Might even help their score. Yay. You'll be in debt to the grave, but, credit cards will be easy to get.

Are t you the guy who rented for an extended period and was a hard nosed advocate of renting over owning in this very thread!?

[Benny Profane]

I have matured in what has been a very expensive market for most of my life, always out of reach for mortals like myself with no inheritance. It's also a market that has a long history of renting, with long enforced rent controls. The one time I did get in and buy the dip, I lost that to the divorce and then watched the housing bubble race ahead. I now "own" a condo that gives me stability and a cheaper monthly nut than renting.

I should have emphasized that spending that sort of sum to rent in ski country, of all places, is not very wise. But, who knows, I'm an old fuck, and maybe I dont appreciate how many Patagucci wearing Sprinter driving WFH laptop addicts making good bucks there are in the world, and can just pay for other kid's houses while living the life and saving enough for emergencies and retirement. Must be nice. But, I dont think so.

[Foggy_Goggles]

But, who knows, I'm an old fuck, and maybe I dont appreciate how many Patagucci wearing Sprinter driving WFH laptop addicts making good bucks there are in the world, and can just pay for other kid's houses while living the life and saving enough for emergencies and retirement. Must be nice. But, I dont think so.

Honestly, I believe that is a pretty significant slice of reality. I've got a job going at a condo complex in Fraser. 58 units total. 8 occupied full time. Split between retirees (some quite young), obvious trustees that couldn't afford it based on their lack of working and steady diet of cross fit and craft beer.

The rest are either straight STRs of which many have an adventure van out front and a transient WFHr bitching at me for running a load machine outside their window when "they are on a very important call", or second home. I trend I'm just catching up on is the Monday - Thurs. STR where the owner used the weekend, peaces out of Sunday and the places is rented until the cleaners show Friday.

I quick scrape of the internet shows something approaching zero long term rental and 300 properties on AirBnB in Fraser. The AirBnB looked to be booked to fuck and a minimum of $100/night. Long Term Rentals can't compete with that.

We've moved from an Affordable Housing Problem to and Any Housing Problem. We currently dealing with issues like 30min lines at the deli (grocery store starts at $20/hr.), The County being about 20% low on staff including critical services (road & bridge, EMS, drivers licence, etc.). All employers I know of are offering unlimited overtime.

We've rapidly gone from needing to tweak the system to nobody knowing what the system even is or any idea as to what the solution, even if incremental is.

[AdironRider]

I don't see a single solution that doesn't involve airbnb being regulated out of existence.

There will be much screaming, but rich people are only going to put up with shitty service for so long before it reaches a breaking point. Ultimately, they hate tourons letting their service animal run around off leash and shitting on their lawn and fucking everything up just as much as the local working class does as well and will gladly say fuck it to STR's. We just haven't reached that point yet.

[sirbumpsalot]

Well, at least after, say, five years, you aren't walking away from that residence 150,000 poorer. You've got something. If you're going to pay rent, keep it down. Like I said, you're just paying for landlords Bobby and Nancy's house, and what do you get?

Everybody gets old. You don't want to be renting at a late age in this kind of market. But, of course, it will have no effect on their oh so important credit rating. Might even help their score. Yay. You'll be in debt to the grave, but, credit cards will be easy to get.

Problem with arguing that the renter class should be in the home owner class is that a great number of them either do not have the money or they do not have the responsibility/care to upkeep a home. At least as renters the landlord keeps the house from becoming a wreck.

[Benny Profane]

Renting also allows for mobility. I will admit that owning at an early age is like chaining a ball to your ankle. Even at a late age, I was able to move four times in the aughts for job opportunities.

[Buster Highmen]

Problem with arguing that the renter class should be in the home owner class is that a great number of them either do not have the money or they do not have the responsibility/care to upkeep a home. At least as renters the landlord keeps the house from becoming a wreck.

That's arguing that there is and should be limited upward mobility.

Lots of people, myself included, rent on their way to being a homeowner and that path is facilitated by reasonable rent.

[Danno]

I don't see a single solution that doesn't involve airbnb being regulated out of existence.

There will be much screaming, but rich people are only going to put up with shitty service for so long before it reaches a breaking point. Ultimately, they hate tourons letting their service animal run around off leash and shitting on their lawn and fucking everything up just as much as the local working class does as well and will gladly say fuck it to STR's. We just haven't reached that point yet.

Yeah, "out of existence" I don't know about, but generally speaking, STRs need to be regulated and taxed high enough that it will only work well for select properties.

Using the market Foggy lives in, I have half a dozen friends I can think of off the top of my head that own second homes. Only 1 is in a location that is inherently STR, at the WP base. The others are all mostly in Fraser, in random condo complexes or small townhome groups. Not traditional resort lodging, just random housing in a nearby town. And most of them use their places here and there, and rent it out regularly during winter. And it doesn't take many weekends at $200-300/nt to make it worth it to continue using it that way. They get a place in the mountains, they get a bunch of expenses covered by renters, all with minimal cost to them. If the STR market was highly regulated and taxed heavily, no doubt some of them would not bother, and while a couple would still keep their place, for the rest the investment calculus would change dramatically.

[Toadman]

That's arguing that there is and should be limited upward mobility.

Lots of people, myself included, rent on their way to being a homeowner and that path is facilitated by reasonable rent.

Exactly. When I lived in that hellish place known as NJ for 6 years, it was hard to save for a home payment. Had to cut back on the 401(k) contribution to put money away for a down payment. Moving to Seattle and getting away from the NJ state income tax and lower rents made it easy to sock away enough in 6 months to make the down payment on a house. (15% bump in pay helped too) I don't know how young people do it these days. At least the number of people able to afford 10% down takes longer and doesn't go very far.

[liv2ski]

At least the number of people able to afford 10% down takes longer and doesn't go very far.

That is why we offered to let the girls live at home for a few years to save money and then matched what they had saved. The kids need help buying that first place, especially in Coastal CA (within 20 miles of the beach).

[Toadman]

That is why we offered to let the girls live at home for a few years to save money and then matched what they had saved. The kids need help buying that first place, especially in Coastal CA (within 20 miles of the beach).

Talking with a former college buddy who works in the Big Apple and has two girls. He says the same thing.

[skaredshtles]

Kids can move to the Midwest. Housing seems to be much more sane there...