Real Estate Crash thread

[glademaster]

I did not know this. Interesting.

Libby averages ~16 inches of precip a year and has summer months with average daytime highs approaching 90.

I'm going to go out a limb and say that calling it "practically a rainforest" is a wild characterization. The climate looks similar to Glenwood Springs, CO, which is well known for being lush and verdant.

[RootSkier]

OK, fair, but does Glenwood Springs have massive old growth western red cedars? And honestly, have you been to the area? Troy is right up the road and gets 22" of rain a year, which is a fuckton for MT, and exactly twice as much as Dillon, and the area is covered with ferns and shit.

Edit: where else can you get a hipster cabin with a Wolf stove on 2 acres for $225k?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...50177329_zpid/

[Norseman]

The elevation difference is notable, too. Libby is at 2000ft (lowest point in the state is 1820 where the Kootenay leaves), while Dillon is at 5000 ft. The temps aren't all that different.

Ok carry on

[glademaster]

I wasn't saying any of that as if it was a bad thing. GWS has a great climate, and Libby/Troy are probably pleasant too. Just saying it's a long way from rainforest, even if the surrounding area is lush by Montana standards.

[Toadman]

OK, fair, but does Glenwood Springs have massive old growth western red cedars? And honestly, have you been to the area? Troy is right up the road and gets 22" of rain a year, which is a fuckton for MT, and exactly twice as much as Dillon, and the area is covered with ferns and shit.

Edit: where else can you get a hipster cabin with a Wolf stove on 2 acres for $225k?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...50177329_zpid/

Had some folks retire from that area to Bend last year. They bought a recently built house that had come on the market two houses down from me. They rave about Bend, not so much about Glenwood Springs. I think they were actually just up the road from there, near Basalt? Can't think of the name of the town. But I was surprised they left that area for Bend.

I think they were just looking to cash out and downsize. But there's a lot of that going on right now.

[Toadman]

More recent RE market data for anyone who cares.

Pending sales the week ending June 21 have nearly returned to 2019 levels (down just 3% year-over-year). Completed home sales are still down 12% compared to the same week last year, but we expect them to catch up in late July or early August as this new batch of pending sales close.
The majority of offers are facing competition (52%) as home-buying demand continues to outpace new listings. The inventory of homes for sale was down 26% from the same week a year ago.
Mortgage purchase applications were up 17% from a year ago as mortgage interest rates dropped below 3% for the first time ever.
Our agents highlighted that there’s a shift of activity to new construction in the suburbs as surprisingly strong new home sales from the U.S. Census Bureau corroborates. “The suburbs are where you’re seeing the most competition,” said Boston Redfin agent James Gulden. “In-city condos are selling less quickly, but in the suburbs homes are only on the market for a matter of days.”

[AdironRider]

OK, fair, but does Glenwood Springs have massive old growth western red cedars? And honestly, have you been to the area? Troy is right up the road and gets 22" of rain a year, which is a fuckton for MT, and exactly twice as much as Dillon, and the area is covered with ferns and shit.

Edit: where else can you get a hipster cabin with a Wolf stove on 2 acres for $225k?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...50177329_zpid/

I’m pretty sure Libby isn’t unique in the superfund site with cheap real estate category.

[BCMtnHound]

Only been to Libby once, a pub crawl lark with some friends from Creston. From what I remember, it seemed to be near the southern end of what we call up here the interior temperate rainforest. Interior cedar hemlock climax. Nice countryside. Locals tried to get our goat, especially when their ladies were noticeably preening, but having spent enough time drinking in the backwoods of northern Idaho, we knew what the local dicks had under the seats of their pick-ups. We laughed, drank, and left without visiting the local drunk tank or lead poisoning.

[4matic]

So long as the non permitted areas don't have plumbing in them and the appraiser states it was done in a workman like manner, your good to go on a conventional loan.

Thanks 2nd bathroom is unpermitted but my tax record says 2 bath so the MLS report says 1k sf 3 and 2 bath. The MLS listing says 1550 sf

[Ted Striker]

^^^ you'll be fine.

[Ted Striker]

Back on track...Boise is still booming. Don't care what Redfin or anything else is saying. The Air B&Bs are in full swing in my neighborhood and it's definitely out of staters hanging around looking at property. I've talked with a few of them. Still getting letters from realtors to sell.

New progressive mayor is trying to shift ADU laws for bigger and more to increase rentals capacity. Apartments going on a lot of empty dirt all over. Builders are slammed. Remodelers are generally six months out on anything major. My mother is trying to get a 20x20' drive way re-poured and she's looking at a 2-3 month wait.

Just spoke with a coworker who writes homeowners insurance in Bozeman. She is slammed talking to New Yorkers and Seattleites all day.

Back on track, the real estate market in western MT is fucking bonkers right now, and even here--a long ways from any destination ski resorts--the out-of-staters are swooping in buying shit sight unseen and making it really fucking hard for locals without two professional incomes to get into the housing market.

Same here in Bellingham - to all of that. Lots of out of town/out of state cash buyers. Desirable properties have bidding wars, and pretty much anything decent and priced correctly goes pending in the first week. What pandemic?

IMHO, this is people looking to de-urbanize. I'd guess Bend is pretty high on the list as well.

[schuss]

Same here in Bellingham - to all of that. Lots of out of town/out of state cash buyers. Desirable properties have bidding wars, and pretty much anything decent and priced correctly goes pending in the first week. What pandemic?

IMHO, this is people looking to de-urbanize. I'd guess Bend is pretty high on the list as well.

Yep, a ton of established corp employees now no longer need to be in the office. They have money and families.

[zion zig zag]

To those looking to deurbanize, and since we’re posting our listings:

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...7-01193#photo9


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[rideit]

To those looking to deurbanize, and since we’re posting our listings:

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...7-01193#photo9


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

At least it’s in the ‘better’ Shooting Star!

[zion zig zag]

At least it’s in the ‘better’ Shooting Star!

Yeah, no golf course membership to pay.

[Garbowski]

To those looking to deurbanize, and since we’re posting our listings:

https://www.realtor.com/realestatean...7-01193#photo9

What is the cost to build on something like that? Lower end but comfortable- maybe a hipster cabin like the one above.

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Yep, SWMT is still bananas. Actually some inventory popping up though, especially in Big Sky. Was a major drought for the past year or more. I said it in March....the coastal wave will just ramp up because of covid. Lots of people from NY etc had the seed in their heads, "Oh we will move to Montana eventually....when the kids are in college." That changed to, "We will move to Montana before the next school year. Start packing honey!!!"

[4matic]

^^^ you'll be fine.

I got pre-inspection to verify structural integrity. Cost $450 and a total scam but necessary.

[4matic]

My youtube stats are double realtor trend. 38 views and 4 hours of total viewing in 7 hours up.

[zion zig zag]

What is the cost to build on something like that? Lower end but comfortable- maybe a hipster cabin like the one above.

Others would know better than me, but $150-200 a square foot? Kind of market driven.

[glademaster]

I would think you would be looking at closer to $300-350 a square foot given the climate, need for engineering to account for snow load and seismic risk category, etc. I think it's hard to do a one-off house, even if it isn't truly "custom" for less than $250-300 sq/ft unless you're doing a substantial amount of the work yourself.

Construction materials have gone up in cost a lot in the last few months, and in a lot of places there's a shortage of labor. Big builders cranking out subdivisions in my area are waiting 2+ weeks to get crews out to roof/side/insulate a place, which wasn't the case at all 6 months ago.

[zion zig zag]

I would think you would be looking at closer to $300-350 a square foot unless you wanted to just plunk a modular home down on the lot.

You're probably right if you want hardwood floors and solid surface countertop type finish and decent design. Building cost there is higher than Northern Utah though for sure.

[glademaster]

You could definitely whittle that down if you can do some of the work yourself, but to truly have a house built these days is costly.

IME, people consistently underestimate how much site work will cost, and as a result, try to defer as much of it as possible until after completion of the home, so they can move in and chip away at it. However, if you're going to try to pull that move, you better be extremely familiar with the municipal code in your jurisdiction, because in some places, you can't even get temporary occupancy until there is "substantial completion" of the site work, and that determination usually falls on a city planner to make.

Most of the construction in my jurisdiction is big homebuilding corporations cranking out subdivisions, but I have to say that it has really made me feel shitty the handful of times I've had to tell a family who's building a one-off home that even though their house is complete/compliant enough to let them safely move in from a building code standpoint, I can't even give them TCO because their final driveway surface and landscaping aren't totally done yet.

If you're building, do your homework and cover your own ass so you don't end up in a bind like the one I described above.

[zion zig zag]

Pretty sure there are no landscaping requirements in Teton Co. Gravel driveway.

[schuss]

Conspiracy theory: a lot of the cash buyers are tech insiders that have seen the writing on the wall and have been divesting shares over the last year.

Plenty of tech is fine. Their highest paying customers (FinServ) are still working and earning money. If anything, COVID is a boon for the good ones as it has forced firms to go fully digital now vs the slow burn of the past decade.
The H1B situation means you can't plug the gap with onshored folks, so you have to rework your tech stack to not rely so much on in-office hardware and networks.
If you're a tech company and bleeding right now you either serve travel/service/retail industries or aren't going to survive anyway.