Real Estate Crash thread

[natty dread]

I bought the place next door to you and am opening up a nuclear waste dump.

You’re OK with that, arent you?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Exactly

[Buster Highmen]

ORLY?

I question whether Buster actually knows what irrelevant or ad hominem actually mean.

Glade didn't attack you, he addressed an issue.
You, on the other hand, directly attacked him.

I'll let the consortium decide if I know my language.

Virtually everyone who posts here is middle class and up. That's irrelevant to the issue of unaffordable real estate, STRs or subsidized housing.

What is relevant is what those who have relative wealth and real estate holdings do with it and how that impacts affordability as well as municipal attempts at solutions.

[Benny Profane]

Real estate is a great way to diversify assets and take advantage of tax codes. The latter could be addressed by policy makers, but, doubtful.

[RoooR]

I bought the place next door to you and am opening up a nuclear waste dump.

You’re OK with that, arent you?


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Reductio ad Absurdum is what people do when they don't have an actual argument. I am 100% fine with condos / apartment buildings / mixed commercial residential, etc going up next to me. The housing crisis has been created because most people in these towns are not and get laws passed to this extent. Are you?

[summit]

Might be time to start looking STRs and how to get those rentals back in the long term pool. But what about private property rights? Are those rights more important than education and emergency response? No answers here, just questions.

Easy way to respect property rights while driving a social good is to offer incentives for the desired outcome rather than restrictions on the undesirable outcome.

For example: give incentives on property tax refunds for properties owner occupied by people who live and work in a given county, or are long time senior residents, or who rent that property to the same.

A county can credit back the general fund portion of the previous year's property taxes back if the property is:
1. BOTH
a. your primary residence AND
b. Either a full time resident of the household is employed in the county the equivalent of at least 20hr/wk last year OR a member of the household is at least 62 years of age and a continuous resident for at least 10 years
OR
2. rented long term, in part or whole, a total of at least 9 months of the last year to tenants employed in the county the equivelent of at least 20hr/wk last year or who are >=62 years of age.

Won't be a huge incentive but some rewards for long term occupancy by local workers and long time seniors (as opposed to just-arrived-retirees).

[Core Shot]

Heh. I’m STR ing my primary residence

Hard to say no to $15k per week. And I’ll be out of town anyway.

But I see more and more STR around here. A friend owns six. They used to be vacation cottages or worker housing. It’s fucked. And the working stiff is really fucked.

[old_newguy]

The decline in long term rental availability in the western US seems to be pretty directly influenced by the rise of STRs. I’m not aware of a tightening of land use regulations in the last ten years that would have had a similar effect.

People who live in these communities who have historically had decent jobs and housing should absolutely fucking leave. Their “neighbors” and “community” just told them they are not worth making any changes for and they can live in a tent if they don’t like it.

These “mountain towns” have basically become Disneyland for rich people. And surprise, they are exploiting people.

[Timberridge]

This thread has a good parry and thrust going on today. I have no idea what anyone is talking about, but it seems to have excited a bunch of you.

[Buster Highmen]

Reductio ad Absurdum is what people do when they don't have an actual argument. I am 100% fine with condos / apartment buildings / mixed commercial residential, etc going up next to me. The housing crisis has been created because most people in these towns are not and get laws passed to this extent. Are you?

It just read like you're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

I thought the point being made was that STRs not partly occupied by full time residents has contributed to the problem by virtue of not being regulated at all, not over regulation. That's the issue with the ID law that prevents Ketchum from enforcing STR limits in neighborhoods zoned SFR.

I loved Mazola in the 70s, still have friends in their little shack up Rattlesnake by Greenough.

[Conundrum]

It just read like you're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

I thought the point being made was that STRs not partly occupied by full time residents has contributed to the problem by virtue of not being regulated at all, not over regulation. That's the issue with the ID law that prevents Ketchum from enforcing STR limits in neighborhoods zoned SFR.

Some people don't see the hypocrisy of Idaho Republicans. They are all "small government" creating more state laws so communities can't govern locally.

[summit]

Lucky for mountain towns the rich have spent a significant amount of their time suppressing wages and getting rid of unions to make it as difficult to strike as possible.

Mountain Town Megacorps like Vail have used 50 year old property acquis ions they acquired for nothing as "joint ventures" with local government who use taxpayer money (including the property and sales taxes paid by local workers) to build "affordable/employee housing" that the megacorp uses to lock in minimum wage workers who can't afford to move out (instead they move on). Local businesses then base their wages off the megacorp wages and the entire mountain community working AND middle class suffers when trying to compete against second home/investment property buyers from around the world.

Employee housing depresses real wages to benefit of the corporate bottom line both in terms of payroll and payroll taxes. It far outweighs what the corporations put into affordable housing. It's not that different from the 1800s Coal Mining Company Town model except they pay you in ski passes, comps, employee housing access, and shitty health plans instead of paying in scrip like the coal miners. When a local "makes it" and "wins" the lottery to buy a deed restricted property, again "subsidized" by the workers own taxes, they are confined by appreciation caps (but not depreciation caps), selling restrictions, and locked into relative wage-depressed local labor markets!

If the free market determined labor wages in mountain towns, wages would be way higher.

Instead we have local government joint projects to "save" workers by offering deed restricted or employee only "housing" in the form of newly constructed 270sqft "microcondos" that still go for $1000/mo.

[dunfree]

Reductio ad Absurdum is what people do when they don't have an actual argument. I am 100% fine with condos / apartment buildings / mixed commercial residential, etc going up next to me. The housing crisis has been created because most people in these towns are not and get laws passed to this extent. Are you?

You’ve got it backwards. Zoning began with the complicity of dirt pimps and developers to drive development. You could make more money selling lots that weren’t going to be next to a waste dump, and where you weren’t going to be living with minoritys (the since outlawed race covenants). The failure of single family suburbia was baked in at creation, it was the selling point.

[fastfred]

Right now the average tourist in town is fat and from the midwest I wouldn't call them rich

short terms are evil

Mortgages are for low class

Benny is fat cause too many edibles and two dollar wine

Glade needs therapy

Sprinter Van's symbolize wealth and excess of the mtn west people hate sprinter van people

You shoulda got to the mtns 25 years ago sorry you missed the boat on a paid off million dollar home in a ski town

I got so baked this morning I went the wrong job and forgot what I was doing till the dog set me straight

Did I miss anything on this monday review if the real estate crash that will never come






Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk

[AdironRider]

Some might argue single family suburbia didn't fail, it thrived.

[altasnob]

Biden is trying to get rid of 1031 like kind exchange that lets you roll your capital gains from investment property into new investment property and avoid paying the capital gains tax. You could still avoid the capital gains tax by moving into your rental property for two years and take advantage of the primary home exemption.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ld-his-fortune

[Toadman]

This Ketchum, is it nice like Aspen?

No. Aspen is WAAAAY nicer.

I don't see what all the fuss is about. Plenty of housing for sale. Sure, some of it is a few million bucks. But just get a collection of homeless teachers, fire fighters, police, restaurant and hotel workers together and buy something.

https://www.zillow.com/ketchum-id/?s...oom%22%3A12%7D

[Toadman]

Right now the average tourist in town is fat and from the midwest I wouldn't call them rich

short terms are evil

Mortgages are for low class

Benny is fat cause too many edibles and two dollar wine

Glade needs therapy

Sprinter Van's symbolize wealth and excess of the mtn west people hate sprinter van people

You shoulda got to the mtns 25 years ago sorry you missed the boat on a paid off million dollar home in a ski town

I got so baked this morning I went the wrong job and forgot what I was doing till the dog set me straight

Did I miss anything on this monday review if the real estate crash that will never come






Sent from my SM-J737V using Tapatalk

You missed the part about the rich wanting good service from the homeless servants that are supposed to service them at fed minimum wages that don't pay the cost of living in said rich person Mtn Town, USA.

[Timberridge]

No. Aspen is WAAAAY nicer.

I don't see what all the fuss is about. Plenty of housing for sale. Sure, some of it is a few million bucks. But just get a collection of homeless teachers, fire fighters, police, restaurant and hotel workers together and buy something.

https://www.zillow.com/ketchum-id/?s...oom%22%3A12%7D

I'll stay in Aspen then.

I like the way you think--sort of like a civil servant time share.

I don't know why everyone's picking on fastfred today. He has a unique insight into this.

[summit]

STRs have allowed people to be second home owners that wouldn't have been prior to it becoming commoditized via tech. Prior, someone who couldn't quite afford a vacation home wouldn't buy one because without weekend rents, they wouldn't make the mortgage. They also wouldn't buy one because to afford it, they would need to do long term rental and why would they buy a vacation home they couldn't vacation in? STRs have certainly driven cost up and long term options out. Idaho f'd up not allowing local munis to handle them how they see fit.

The biggest change is mindset and realization this was something you could do while the general public opened their mind to preferring STR over hotels not-just-in-resort-areas.

Many many many mountain resort areas were built around the second home condo that was short termed out by a local company or a large resort when the owner wasn't using it. In resort areas, all AirBnB did was make it easier to do this and puts more cash in the owner's pocket instead of the megacorp's property management company.

Second homes are usually managed by some vacation rental PM company that has their own website but also lists on Airbnb/VRBO etc...

My street is houses and duplexes, about 40% are STRs and the other ~60% are a mix of primary residence/LTR/pure second home.

Across the way are condo complexes that are 90%+ STR and always have been.

What AirBNB let me do was STR my place if I'm out for a week, but most of the time I don't...

[dunfree]

Bullshit. The STR economy began in an area with greatly reduced supply of hotels (San Francisco, because of regulatory capture and nimbys). And thrived globally as a regulatory scofflaw. The majority of str property on Airbnb was chain owned, including hotels,and other dwellings.

I’ll make sure only I drive my car to cut traffic from Uber if you pay me $100

[Buster Highmen]

Some might argue single family suburbia didn't fail, it thrived.

True, that's one way of looking at it, especially for those that bought before 2000 or stayed in flyover zones.
Now, in coastal and mountain cities, an argument might be made for failure of the model.

Around Seattle, some suburban municipalities have restructured zoning to allow for higher density and more affordable housing. But there's not many STRs there.

[liv2ski]

Biden is trying to get rid of 1031 like kind exchange that lets you roll your capital gains from investment property into new investment property and avoid paying the capital gains tax. You could still avoid the capital gains tax by moving into your rental property for two years and take advantage of the primary home exemption.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ld-his-fortune

Yup, he has a few good ideas (sarc) that will stop people from ever selling. If you want seniors out of their homes and to move down, then you don't tax the sale or at the most only tax the amount between what they sold and bought for, not the entire amount of the gain at sale. And on the 1031, same thing, landlords just won't sell as often, so there goes a duplex going on the market so the landlord could buy a small apartment building. This idea will just limit people selling even more. NTTIAWWT

[Conundrum]

The biggest change is mindset and realization this was something you could do while the general public opened their mind to preferring STR over hotels not-just-in-resort-areas.

Many many many mountain resort areas were built around the second home condo that was short termed out by a local company or a large resort when the owner wasn't using it. In resort areas, all AirBnB did was make it easier to do this and puts more cash in the owner's pocket instead of the megacorp's property management company.

Second homes are usually managed by some vacation rental PM company that has their own website but also lists on Airbnb/VRBO etc...

My street is houses and duplexes, about 40% are STRs and the other ~60% are a mix of primary residence/LTR/pure second home.

Across the way are condo complexes that are 90%+ STR and always have been.

What AirBNB let me do was STR my place if I'm out for a week, but most of the time I don't...

I could see that in resort towns. Take my block as an example. Seven houses. When I moved in, it was all long term owners. Then a couple moved out but long term rented it. Then Air B&B and VRBO started gaining traction. Then that rental sold to an out of state buyer who AirB&B'd it. Then my neighbors stopped using their guest cottage as a guest cottage and turned it into an AirBB. Then the house next to them sold to an out of state buying who reno'd it and turned it into an AirBB. Then the owner on the end of the street cashed out and sold to an out of state buyer who turned it into an AirBB. So until AirBB hit the scene, a somewhat urban residential neighborhood had seven owners living in their houses. In the last five years, over half became AirBB that were never using local PMs. My neighbors felt bad and turned their cottage back into LTR. One of the out of states turned out to be military and he retired and they live here permanently now. Two are still AirBB.

A guy just got arrested at one of them last week for hitting his gal and then pacing the back yard claiming himself Christopher Columbus and the yard was his island. Good stuff.

I don't think AirBB is fully to blame for lack of housing and resort towns are different for sure. But they are certainly not helping. Makes investment properties a lot easier to buy for those who couldn't/wouldn't prior. Especially in desirable areas resort town or not.

[summit]

Back to property taxes...assessment is 19% up. Still well below market. State passed an additional $25k exemption. City is looking for 3% max increase as quoted "to fund issues caused by growth". My math shows an overall 15%ish increase. The increase alone will be more than I paid in taxes the first year owning my home.

Edit. Glad the neighbors are doing well financially...just ran their numbers too. They had a similar house to mine they scraped about five years ago and went as big as PZ would allow. Worth about double mine now. Their increase is 27%. Ouch. Modest additional car payment a month in taxes on that one.

The problem for local renters is that the portion of rent going to cover property taxes is probably a full month on average in CO. That cost is directly passed on.

The problem for local owners is that their property taxes have probably about doubled in 5 years around here as a combo between every proposed tax getting approved, repealing Gallagher, and increasing valuations.

If you like where you live and you only own one property and you live in it, then valuations going up doesn't help you with anything... just hits you for taxes... and employers sure as heck haven't offered COL raises that match.

Tricky CO legislature offering to cut SFH taxes a whopping 3%... also known as pissing in a hurricane. Thanks guys! Oh and it is written to preemptively prevent any ballot initiatives from cutting SFH property taxes.
https://www.cpr.org/2021/06/04/color...-tax-cut-bill/

[Conundrum]

I've already bitched about that and don't recommend it.