Real Estate Crash thread

[nickwm21]

Why cropland? We have been turning cropland into housing developments forever.

We need food to survive.


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[RootSkier]

We need food to survive.


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Do we need corn syrup to survive?

[abraham]

We need food to survive.


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Silicon valley and the wasatch front suggest we don't really care.

[m2711c]

Please point on the map where that is exactly.


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you’ll want to look at the tug hill area of the upstates…. the deers outnumbers them humans by a wide margin.




fact.

[Art Shirk]

I've been noodling with a real estate question that I want to pose to this group. I have a house in Seattle that I rent out to some awesome tenants. It nets about $700/month above our mortgage each month and there is probably about 500k in equity in it if I sold this spring in current condition. The rub is that it has multiple huge suspended decks that are getting close to their lifespan. I am handy and dont mind hard work but I cant bite this off. Got multiple quotes last summer and I'm honestly looking at like 125k-175k to get it all ripped out and redone with weatherproof materials. I am wondering if I should sell before the headache starts and put that money elsewhere, or bite the bullet. Considerations:

- how long will I have to hold for appreciation to outpace the investment?
- do I want to keep being a landlord, and what other issues will arise (just redid major things like sewer, all new appliances, tanlless water etc, so nothing on horizon but shit, its a house. Probably needs a new roof in next 3-5 years? I am trying to simplify my life right now.
- Do I want to forgo the monthly cash injection or can I make that back off the proceeds through another vehicle?
- I'm nearby but on an island now with a lot of seasonal tourons so considering rolling into a new place close by and go the airbnb route (throws the whole simplification thing out the window)
- If I do want to just replace the whole deck/railings, etc, should I pay cash or yank it out of the equity of the house with some sort of cash out refi?

[fastfred]

you’ll want to look at the tug hill area of the upstates…. the deers outnumbers them humans by a wide margin.




fact.

everytime I ride my bike into the tug hill area I feel like I'm on the set of deliverance
beautiful area quiet and empty winding narrow roads over grown farms but something just seems really off with the people there
tug hill should have a 3ft base by now? but no meaningful ski areas?

[natty dread]

I've been noodling with a real estate question that I want to pose to this group. I have a house in Seattle that I rent out to some awesome tenants. It nets about $700/month above our mortgage each month and there is probably about 500k in equity in it if I sold this spring in current condition. The rub is that it has multiple huge suspended decks that are getting close to their lifespan. I am handy and dont mind hard work but I cant bite this off. Got multiple quotes last summer and I'm honestly looking at like 125k-175k to get it all ripped out and redone with weatherproof materials. I am wondering if I should sell before the headache starts and put that money elsewhere, or bite the bullet. Considerations:

- how long will I have to hold for appreciation to outpace the investment?
- do I want to keep being a landlord, and what other issues will arise (just redid major things like sewer, all new appliances, tanlless water etc, so nothing on horizon but shit, its a house. Probably needs a new roof in next 3-5 years? I am trying to simplify my life right now.
- Do I want to forgo the monthly cash injection or can I make that back off the proceeds through another vehicle?
- I'm nearby but on an island now with a lot of seasonal tourons so considering rolling into a new place close by and go the airbnb route (throws the whole simplification thing out the window)
- If I do want to just replace the whole deck/railings, etc, should I pay cash or yank it out of the equity of the house with some sort of cash out refi?

I’m simplifying as well, make my yearly mortgage in 3 months on VRBO (but no profit on top of that), and am selling a house I have loved for 24 years. I say sell now, leave the 125k job and roof to the next guy; it’s tippy top o the market and interest rates are going up this year.

[liv2ski]

Art, if you sell and do a 1031 exchange into another rental property will you have a nicer property (few repairs needed) with the same or better cash flow? If yes, I would sell as $125k in repairs is a fuck ton

[schuss]

I've been noodling with a real estate question that I want to pose to this group. I have a house in Seattle that I rent out to some awesome tenants. It nets about $700/month above our mortgage each month and there is probably about 500k in equity in it if I sold this spring in current condition. The rub is that it has multiple huge suspended decks that are getting close to their lifespan. I am handy and dont mind hard work but I cant bite this off. Got multiple quotes last summer and I'm honestly looking at like 125k-175k to get it all ripped out and redone with weatherproof materials. I am wondering if I should sell before the headache starts and put that money elsewhere, or bite the bullet. Considerations:

- how long will I have to hold for appreciation to outpace the investment?
- do I want to keep being a landlord, and what other issues will arise (just redid major things like sewer, all new appliances, tanlless water etc, so nothing on horizon but shit, its a house. Probably needs a new roof in next 3-5 years? I am trying to simplify my life right now.
- Do I want to forgo the monthly cash injection or can I make that back off the proceeds through another vehicle?
- I'm nearby but on an island now with a lot of seasonal tourons so considering rolling into a new place close by and go the airbnb route (throws the whole simplification thing out the window)
- If I do want to just replace the whole deck/railings, etc, should I pay cash or yank it out of the equity of the house with some sort of cash out refi?

I'd just dump it. Real estate is pretty high and while yes, it could increase even more, unless the extra income is a vital piece, no point to continued PITA. I'd also sit on the cash and take advantage of the inevitable rate hike dip.

[simple]

ha. Not even close. For example, Maine and South Korea are nearly the same size. South Korea has 51 million people and Maine has about 1. https://mapfight.xyz/map/kr/#us.me And South Korea still has farms and rural villages and mountains where nobody lives.

Or try Pennsylvania some time. Aside from the two ends, there's nobody there. Less people than there were in 1900 by far.

Not to mention the vast emptiness of the Upstates. etc etc

Next you'll tell us Detroit has potential.

All those places you described died or never happened for a reason.

IMO the next development craze will be turning these dead shopping malls into housing complexes. Apparently the main hold up is zoning. They are usually perfectly situated for where people actually want to live. Ie not bum fuck Maine

[dunfree]

Next you'll tell us Detroit has potential.

All those places you described died or never happened for a reason.

IMO the next development craze will be turning these dead shopping malls into housing complexes. Apparently the main hold up is zoning. They are usually perfectly situated for where people actually want to live. Ie not bum fuck Maine

right now the craze beginning is converting offices to living.

look at the map I posted upthread, plenty of east coast that’s shrinking.

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
IMO the next development craze will be turning these dead shopping malls into housing complexes.

This has recently happened near us. A crappy old strip mall with MONSTROUS, useless parking lots got a shitload of apartments built on it. The strip mall got a facelift, a bunch of new tenants, and it kinda looks like it might make a go of it...

[hawkgt]

Already seeing dead shopping centers turned into high end apartments / condos on the Front range. I think it opened late summer and was full occupancy in 2-3 months

[altasnob]

Art, if you sell and do a 1031 exchange into another rental property will you have a nicer property (few repairs needed) with the same or better cash flow? If yes, I would sell as $125k in repairs is a fuck ton

Or if you want to get out of the real estate business entirely, move back into the Seattle place, live two years, and then sell, so you don't have to pay capital gains tax. (Denver dude who wants to rent his place needs to be aware of this law).

If you pay the deck repair now, you get to deduct that as an expense from your rental profits. But then there (may be) depreciation recapture rules when you do sell. I am no expert, and something I need to research more of myself. Bottom line, it could be beneficial to do the deck repair with tenants in it rather than you living there as primary residence.

[fastfred]

what about ski town realestate fuck this east coast talk

"Don't worry we are insulated, we deal with wealthy people, what is a happening in Denver will not happen here." Some dumb real estate agent circa September 2008.

[kathleenturneroverdrive]

I'm about to have the cash to buy my first investment property. Likely somewhere between Driggs/Bozeman/Cooke City (I'm in Bozeman). I'm curious though, with all the doom and gloom about skyrocketing prices and potential rate hikes, how many of you who own rental properties would pull the trigger on your first one right now?

[Percy Rideout]

what about ski town realestate fuck this east coast talk

"Don't worry we are insulated, we deal with wealthy people, what is a happening in Denver will not happen here." Some dumb real estate agent circa September 2008.

I see our real estate prices in the mountain towns plateauing, but not dropping like we will see in major metropolitan areas when interest rates eventually skyrocket to temper our "transitionary" inflation issue. Hint: It's not transitionary, but still better than deflation.

The pandemic has convinced more people to drop their shitty city lives and move to the mountains. Some are involved in the community but most are working remote. That demand hasn't gone away with each COVID wave.

[Conundrum]

Funny how this time around is nothing like last time, which was nothing like the time before.

[ötzi]

Next you'll tell us Detroit has potential.

All those places you described died or never happened for a reason.

IMO the next development craze will be turning these dead shopping malls into housing complexes. Apparently the main hold up is zoning. They are usually perfectly situated for where people actually want to live. Ie not bum fuck Maine

I wasn't arguing any of that at all, I was just saying you're wrong that it's near build-out, and you are definitely wrong on that.

[dunfree]

I see our real estate prices in the mountain towns plateauing, but not dropping like we will see in major metropolitan areas when interest rates eventually skyrocket to temper our "transitionary" inflation issue. Hint: It's not transitionary, but still better than deflation.

The pandemic has convinced more people to drop their shitty city lives and move to the mountains. Some are involved in the community but most are working remote. That demand hasn't gone away with each COVID wave.

lol. Little parasite sucking big dollar dick. Come the fuck on asshole, many people buying in the mountains it’s their second or third home. Especially in asspan.

[Ted Striker]

I like that map. "less than 0.0"

[Dantheman]

Overlay that image with a map of topography, state and federal parks, forest service, tribal land, and cropland….

Root covered cropland, and the rest proves my point by virtue of pushing development towards established towns and metros, of which there are not that many. The point of posting the image is not to show how much more undeveloped land there is in the West, it's to show how many many more people there are in the East, Midwest and South. You don't need a very large percentage those people to decide they'd rather live in the West to sustain high levels of growth for decades to come.

[dunfree]

Funny how this time around is nothing like last time, which was nothing like the time before.

like many things in life it’s timing. so much of the narrative now is being driven by demographics (millenials aging, boomers dieing) and culture war politics (“cities suck, say online addicts”)

[fastfred]

I see our real estate prices in the mountain towns plateauing, but not dropping like we will see in major metropolitan areas when interest rates eventually skyrocket to temper our "transitionary" inflation issue. Hint: It's not transitionary, but still better than deflation.

The pandemic has convinced more people to drop their shitty city lives and move to the mountains. Some are involved in the community but most are working remote. That demand hasn't gone away with each COVID wave.

we don't need anymore d bags that for sure
but I do love their money
everyday I feel like you remember when
was just read the riot act by someone the other day and thrown in there was something to do with mountain mentality and mountain time and we all being lazy and liars

[SKIP IN7RO]

we don't need anymore d bags that for sure
but I do love their money
everyday I feel like you remember when
was just read the riot act by someone the other day and thrown in there was something to do with mountain mentality and mountain time and we all being lazy and liars

MST mountain stoner time