Real Estate Crash thread

[shroom]

y’all are crazy. AdrionRider - I’ve literally been making the same argument for the last 4 years. the only way it made sense to buy in seattle was 1) long term residence or whatever meets your risk/comfort and 2) to chase continued appreciation

it is still more expensive monthly for me to buy vs rent even in a studio apt at like 400sqft. this is within reason, i could commute from BFE. my income is volatile right now, so i ain’t buying into herd gains. pop in king county is up 20% since 2010, that amplifies. traffic sucks, that amplifies. some incomes are a lot higher, that amplifies. but the median should not have had the same lift it has, imo. the distribution does not fit.

[Name Redacted]

"The spring and summer home buying and selling season ultimately ended up being a letdown, despite a faster growing economy and healthy demand for buying a home," said Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater. "Unfortunately, too many would-be buyers continue to be tripped up by not enough affordable supply and the one-two punch of much higher home prices and mortgage rates."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...of2&yptr=yahoo

[4matic]

Amazon buys a prefab house builder.

https://www.plantprefab.com/projects/12

[SKIP IN7RO]

^AMZN to the moon!

[babybear]

echos and alexas spy devices pre-installed too. sales grow even higher hehehe

[dunfree]

y’all are crazy. AdrionRider - I’ve literally been making the same argument for the last 4 years. the only way it made sense to buy in seattle was 1) long term residence or whatever meets your risk/comfort and 2) to chase continued appreciation

it is still more expensive monthly for me to buy vs rent even in a studio apt at like 400sqft. this is within reason, i could commute from BFE. my income is volatile right now, so i ain’t buying into herd gains. pop in king county is up 20% since 2010, that amplifies. traffic sucks, that amplifies. some incomes are a lot higher, that amplifies. but the median should not have had the same lift it has, imo. the distribution does not fit.

You give up the upside gain potential for no down side risk and a reduced monthly expenditure. historically the risk has been coupled - if you want to stay your house is rising because the local economys good, if you want to leave the local economys shit and you want to leave. the problem for some, many, is saving so they have the flexibility to enter into the market again if they choose, otherwise they are permanently priced out of buying and at some point are pushed out of their current rental for various reasons. bunch of the other why to own a home arguments boil down to a personal definition of "freedom".

[Name Redacted]

echos and alexas spy devices pre-installed too. sales grow even higher hehehe

That's actually genius. Plus Nest-like stuff in every room. Then the gov't will listen to every conversation.

[babybear]

also more homes to furnish/ fill.
amazon is heavily entering the furniture/ home decor mkt. the large parcels are the bane of UPS/FedEx existence so amazon is also trying to crack this dilemma
guess if they can figure it out for a whole house, they will figure it out for a couch

[babybear]

i knew seattle was a hot mkt but I was blown away to hear a friend say he was living here in Jh for 1/2 the price of his Seattle apt and his apt here was larger/nicer
damn kids

[gravitylover]

also more homes to furnish/ fill.
amazon is heavily entering the furniture/ home decor mkt. the large parcels are the bane of UPS/FedEx existence so amazon is also trying to crack this dilemma
guess if they can figure it out for a whole house, they will figure it out for a couch

I saw two ~30 foot box trucks with Amazon Delivery graphics on them in the last few days. They're workin' on it around here for sure.

[dunfree]

the large parcels are the bane of UPS/FedEx existence so amazon is also trying to crack this dilemma

saw someone return a 3-piece sectional to target that UPS had thrashed in delivery, that was an expensive fuckup for target.

i really think amzn's problem right now is the discovery and display part of retail, they suck at that. I was looking to order some sandpaper - that they carry - and they couldn't rec'd me the relevant shit.

[goldenboy]

Some good thoughts as to what constitutes an impending bubble: https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/...te-bubble.aspx

[AdironRider]

i knew seattle was a hot mkt but I was blown away to hear a friend say he was living here in Jh for 1/2 the price of his Seattle apt and his apt here was larger/nicer
damn kids

That is pretty incredible. Jackson rent is cheaper than my friends in Boston, but not by half and the places here are dumps comparatively (the rental pool stuff - obviously Jackson is pretty swanky overall).

[liv2ski]

More and more people jumping on the RE down turn train...

Some loony economists claim that rising home prices are from a lack of new homes built. Meaning many aren't selling even though many want to buy. But if that were the case, then home builders would be doing very well.

Yet they're not. So - like I wrote above - it comes down to demand side problems.

I expect the housing sector to continue weakening. Especially as the Fed continues their tightening and balance sheet unwinding.

Home prices have outpaced 'real' (after inflation) wages by many fold for years. This means debt's needed to keep things going. And don't expect people to easily afford the higher borrowing costs from the Fed's rate hikes.

The last time rates got up too high, debtors couldn't manage their interest payments and home prices fell. Taking down the entire global economy with it.

So as long as the Fed keeps hiking rates - expect the housing market to become increasingly fragile

[4matic]

The speed that RE market can slow is under rated. Owners are not tapping home equity at a high % and with HELOC rates rising that will slow even more. Will have to wait till January to really know. Inventory in my barrio is up 300% from the low.

[gretch6364]

Sell out of the hot markets while you can.

[SKIP IN7RO]

Sell out of the hot markets while you can.

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

[SKIP IN7RO]

I have always understood it as don't get too greedy.

[liv2ski]

The speed that RE market can slow is under rated. Owners are not tapping home equity at a high % and with HELOC rates rising that will slow even more. Will have to wait till January to really know. Inventory in my barrio is up 300% from the low.

Wow, that is a large increase of inventory. I thought you were thinking of selling. Did you get that done or still thinking about it?

My wife was ranting about technology (work related) and how she is so sick of this shit she wants to retire. I have been looking at rentals in various close to skiing towns and man, it is tough to get a decent place with two big dogs. I hope she gets the "Golden Handshake in June 2019 so we can move on to the next adventure and just rent our place out.

[glademaster]

5 months ago, every new SFR I was inspecting was pre-sold (deposit taken before construction begins), now, 9/10 McMansions I'm inspecting are being built as spec houses. There is still fierce competition at some price points, but things are definitely slowing in Pugetopolis, particularly new construction in the $800,000-1,200,000 range.

Last week I had someone who is about 5 houses away from wrapping up a 109 home subdivision exclaim to me extemporaneously "we made out like bandits!"

[TAFKALVS]

"we made out like bandits!"

Creditors are going to get the last laugh when the down turn happens and all these construction guys get their fancy fleets of Cat Equipment and F350s repo'd.

I've noticed lately that contractors seem to be driving around alarmingly new trucks - have you noticed this too Glade? I always remember contractors buying/driving beaters.

[Name Redacted]

Been trying to get the wife to sell our primary residence for a while now. Worth far north of what we owe on it, and we could knock out a substantial amount of other debt and put ourselves in a much better place by cashing out. We already own a second home (Condo) nearby, that we could move into for a few years and it's actually 40 minutes closer to her work. Problem is, she F-ing loves our current house and it really is perfect for us, nothing fancy, but exactly what we need. I figure we would wait a few years till the market corrects, and then we can buy back into a similar situation but she won't hear any of it. Sitting on our home like a boat anchor.

I guess I shouldn't complain that the wife refuses to leave when I've had a ton of friends leave over the years to move on to other places, away from the mountains, closer to family etc..

I also have a few friends who cashed out recently, moved into a rental that is nowhere near as nice as the place they sold, and are waiting for a correction before buying back in.

[Danno]

I also have a few friends who cashed out recently, moved into a rental that is nowhere near as nice as the place they sold, and are waiting for a correction before buying back in.

[4matic]

I would have liked to have sold but I'm not ready to move my tax base and I have some income and logistical reasons for staying here for now. Plus, my house is really nice for me after all the work I've done and it is still only 160 miles from Kirkwood. I may take another look in January. Late winter is best time to list here.

[Name Redacted]

Man, after watching Ozark lately, funny to see Jason Bateman in that roll. I wish he'd put out that quote during the show sometime at an appropriate moment when talking to Jacob Snell or something.