Real Estate Crash thread

[Core Shot]

STR is the new STD

[goldenboy]

I wonder if Grand County is unique in Colorado having 3 Republican County Commissioners and a major ski resort?

I'd guess so. Makes some sense given that Kremmling probably has a grand total of 8 registered Democrats.

[Foggy_Goggles]

My subdivision is a bit of a poster child for the lil' bit rich but not Vail rich got a place in the mountains funded by the STR hustle crowd.

Minimal registration, comparatively affordable, close to lots of things etc. There are something like 9 homes (single and half duplex) out of 45ish for sale right now in the 900-1,100k range.

None are selling and many are subject to price reductions. 7 are new construction and investor owned.

The free second home, free income, pay the mortgage with the STR income game is over in Grand County.

I wonder what the scuttlebutt as Chad's soccer game in Lakewood is?

Revenue for STRs is down due to oversupply. If we have a shitty winter, I think that segment will feel real pain.



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[east or bust]

The funny thing about this place is its whiplash change in character. The new people don't actually do much outdoor stuff that people here used to do. For most of them, the biggest outdoor activity they've done lately was standing in line for a table at King Sushi. It's like a spoiled kid who has all the best toys but mostly just watches TV.

Working for a local building company, the client on pretty much every new build fits this mold to a T. In the back of your mind you're like, WTF is this person thinking. Most, if they even ski to begin with, are probably blue square skiers at a place that isn't the Tetons. If they get outside at all in the summer it's walking around Jenny Lake at the most. It's hilarious.

Unfortunately they have enough $$$ to just fuck off in the winter and leave the house empty. People building new with any contractor around here right now don't fall into the STR for "profit" category.

Revenue for STRs is down due to oversupply. If we have a shitty winter, I think that segment will feel real pain.

Great point, if we have a season or two of El Nino low tide it could definitely make things interesting. There will be upside down losers here for sure.

[liv2ski]

There will be upside down losers here for sure.

That is what I keep reading is coming. High end properties in Mammoth are definitely 20-25% lower than 12 months ago.
The low end is hanging in there for now

[TG]

Working for a local building company, the client on pretty much every new build fits this mold to a T. In the back of your mind you're like, WTF is this person thinking. Most, if they even ski to begin with, are probably blue square skiers at a place that isn't the Tetons. If they get outside at all in the summer it's walking around Jenny Lake at the most. It's hilarious.

Unfortunately they have enough $$$ to just fuck off in the winter and leave the house empty. People building new with any contractor around here right now don't fall into the STR for "profit" category.
.

I've been hoping for this situation to be reflected in a decrease in crowding in the winter BC, but it hasn't. Things get busier and more crowded. Why do you think that is? Is it all tourists? Is it Exum raping GTNP with as many clients as they can possibly bring to the Taggart lot? Is it more skiers being turned off by JHMR and moving to skins?

[oldnew_guy]

I don't see people who currently can't afford or outbid someone for a house coming out as winners in a real estate market crash.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Why not? I think the general economy, the financial markets and the housing market have never been more disconnected.

If mortgage rates and housing prices simultaneously decrease, those with dependable income and are liquid will profit

That's what happened the last time.

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[oldnew_guy]

Why not? I think the general economy, the financial markets and the housing market have never been more disconnected.

If mortgage rates and housing prices simultaneously decrease, those with dependable income and are liquid will profit

That's what happened the last time.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

Maybe I'm naive, but I don't see mortgage rates and housing prices declining simultaneously without some other disruption in the economy that also ends up crushing the same people who currently can't afford to buy.

[Foggy_Goggles]

It's complicated and nobody knows including me. The national homebuilders are sitting on alot of inventory and are on shaky ground. There is a lot of headline risk in the markets right now. If and when something happens there will be opportunities. But yes, people are dump and some will get crushed.

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[4matic]

I get the impression Fed is determined to give shelter a haircut.

[Name Redacted]

Neighbors just sold their house in one day. I guess the market aint that cold.

[oldnew_guy]

It's complicated and nobody knows including me. The national homebuilders are sitting on alot of inventory and are on shaky ground. There is a lot of headline risk in the markets right now. If and when something happens there will be opportunities. But yes, people are dump and some will get crushed.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

Probably my own hindsight bias but I can't help think of 2008.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I don't think that word means what you think it means?

But maybe you are just trying to say that housing prices should move inversely with interest (mortgage) rates?

But do they? Or is it either a smaller factor than previously believed and is it a function whether or not the pool or buyers need to borrow money? At at what cost?

Maybe as Voelker.

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[oldnew_guy]

I don't think that word means what you think it means?

But maybe you are just trying to say that housing prices should move inversely with interest (mortgage) rates?

But do they? Or is it either a smaller factor than previously believed and is it a function whether or not the pool or buyers need to borrow money? At at what cost?

Maybe as Voelker.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

Ok, so maybe I'm not remembering correctly because I wasn't paying much attention at the time, but it seem to me that the fed rate dropped dramatically in 2007/2008 at the same time housing prices were crashing and the entire country fell into a recession.

[MontuckyFried]

I don't see people who currently can't afford or outbid someone for a house coming out as winners in a real estate market crash.

Why not? The last crash was quite the equalizer. When I came to Big Sky, place was a ghost town as all the people with their 2nd/3rd homes dumped everything/foreclosed/gave up and RE was dirt cheap. Made me about sick last time I checked the market. Some places are going for 7-10x what they were barely a decade ago. For places that are NOT worth it. This isn't sustainable IMO.

So yeah, IMO if a crash happens, people who currently can't afford WILL come out as winners as they will finally be able to get back in the game.

[neckdeep]

Right on cue, the WSJ publishes its annual article on how Driggs is the next Jackson Hole. Fucking A, every fucking year for 25 years, the same damn article. Somebody big at the WSJ must be married to somebody big at Sotheby's.

And there's a photo of the new douches sitting outside at King Sushi!!! WTF!!! I was just mocking that shit a few hours ago.

The dirt pimps are just killing this place.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Ok, so maybe I'm not remembering correctly because I wasn't paying much attention at the time, but it seem to me that the fed rate dropped dramatically in 2007/2008 at the same time housing prices were crashing and the entire country fell into a recession.

I think that gets the causality wrong. In 2007-2008 the housing market crashed, taking the financial market with it, and the Fed then had to drop rates in response to try and prop up the economy.

[oldnew_guy]

Why not? The last crash was quite the equalizer. When I came to Big Sky, place was a ghost town as all the people with their 2nd/3rd homes dumped everything/foreclosed/gave up and RE was dirt cheap. Made me about sick last time I checked the market. Some places are going for 7-10x what they were barely a decade ago. For places that are NOT worth it. This isn't sustainable IMO.

So yeah, IMO if a crash happens, people who currently can't afford WILL come out as winners as they will finally be able to get back in the game.

If all the people unable to buy at high prices would suddenly be able to buy at lower prices, why did all of that inventory sit for so long? My theory: the people in 2008 who were priced out or were unable to out bid were also wiped out in the crash and were unable to buy. I don't see why it would be different with a market crash now.

[Foggy_Goggles]

It's actually really different. A few Googles, podcasts and YouTube will explain it to you.

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[J. Barron DeJong]

If all the people unable to buy at high prices would suddenly be able to buy at lower prices, why did all of that inventory sit for so long? My theory: the people in 2008 who were priced out or were unable to out bid were also wiped out in the crash and were unable to buy. I don't see why it would be different with a market crash now.

Is there evidence that people are getting mortgages that aren’t qualified this time? That’s what caused the crash last time - people getting approved for mortgages (or multiple mortgages) who had no busines being lent money, based on statement of income with no proof (liar loans), and mortgages with payments that didn’t even cover the interest let alone paying down the principal. And much of it done so that Wall Street would have something to package into derivatives.

ETA: if anyone needs a refresher, or maybe never knew in the first place, This American Life’s ‘The Giant Pool of Money’ episode was a fantastic explainer.

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/355...-pool-of-money

[neckdeep]

If all the people unable to buy at high prices would suddenly be able to buy at lower prices, why did all of that inventory sit for so long?

Because banks stopped making loans?

Hmmmm? Remember it was called the "credit crisis" or "credit crunch" at first. Then someone called it the "Great Recession" and that was catchier.

[fastfred]

um so like my house is worth a fortune and many other people are in the same boat
so what you do is like go get a heloc and buy an overpriced place in the mtns that will cash flow on the STR then you piss away a bunch of that money on a van and other dumb shit like nice skis you suck at using

well we hit the blip in early october (thats when it all happens if you look at history) and the rug gets pulled out from under everyone
you on the line for the
1) mort
2) heloc
3) 2nd home
4) car loans
5) student loans

and we have a stew called a "credit crunch"
banks and ceo's and the 1% get bailed out and you lose everything

[oldnew_guy]

Because banks stopped making loans?

Hmmmm? Remember it was called the "credit crisis" or "credit crunch" at first. Then someone called it the "Great Recession" and that was catchier.

Unemployment rate was also pushing 10% in the aftermath, which is what I'm talking about. Not the cause. The cause is going to be different, but I don't see a significant RE market crash happening without some follow on impacts to the overall economy and unemployment rates which seems like it would probably impact the people who can't buy right now.

[MontuckyFried]

well we hit the blip in early october (thats when it all happens if you look at history) and the rug gets pulled out from under everyone

October you say, eh? This ain't your first rodeo, so Imma pay attention.