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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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09-13-2019, 05:01 PM #7601Banned
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Can we tell Zuckerberg to take a dive cruise where Bromontana is assigned to the night watch shift instead?
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09-13-2019, 05:36 PM #7602
Real Estate Crash thread
I’ve got a flashback for ya Brit. 2014 Microsoft merger/redundancy layoff. 18,000 people.
ONLY 1351 Seattle area employees affected and still caused a ripple in our housing market. 1351. How many more tech jobs have come to this area since then? 100-200,000? How many bookfacers here? How many 1-1.5MM homes do they occupy?
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09-13-2019, 06:50 PM #7603
Dammit, I think you’re right. As a dentist I shouldn’t have a blindspot for when it comes to never ending residual fortune.
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09-13-2019, 07:35 PM #7604
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09-13-2019, 08:01 PM #7605
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09-13-2019, 09:03 PM #7606
Steph Curry paid $31 million for his new pad in Atherton.
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09-13-2019, 09:07 PM #7607
In 75 years when the SW and the Gulf Coast become unlivable, NE real estate will regain its value. Just a question of getting the kids to keep ye ol’ homestead.
Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.
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09-13-2019, 09:41 PM #7608
Well, at least it rains here, there's no tornadoes or earthquakes, and we have mass transit. And, its green.
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09-13-2019, 09:53 PM #7609
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09-14-2019, 06:44 AM #7610
Yeah, October really sucks.
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09-15-2019, 01:34 PM #7611
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09-16-2019, 06:46 AM #7612Registered User
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You’re Canadian, so it’s a good choice. But low elevation and potentially Smokey summers are keeping me at 8000ft in the RFV.
They’re will always be dips and hopefully that’s when your buying.
Buying is when you have the most leverage and your decisions will have the most effect on your final ROI.
Buy something unique, that can’t be easily duplicated. I’d probably be looking at lake front, near Whistler or the Powder Hwy.
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09-21-2019, 05:29 PM #7613
Well here we go. Looks like we get to bail out some of the lucky bastards that got to have beach property for at least a portion of their time.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...e-florida-keys
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09-21-2019, 06:05 PM #7614
I've reached my limit and they're onto incognito. Cliff notes?
A few people feel the rain. Most people just get wet.
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09-21-2019, 07:24 PM #7615
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09-21-2019, 07:29 PM #7616
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09-21-2019, 10:03 PM #7617
I’ll admit I didn’t make it to the end of the article, but from the first half, sounds like they are getting million dollar gov cash buyouts. No?
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09-21-2019, 10:21 PM #7618
And soon they will be shopping here...
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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10-12-2019, 07:45 AM #7619
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10-12-2019, 09:08 AM #7620
by Allan Sloan Oct. 10, 5 a.m. EDT
Daniel Savage, special to ProPublica
ProPublica is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power. Sign up for ProPublica’s Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox as soon as they are published.
This story was co-published with Fortune.
Lamle’s model isn’t applicable to most people because it works only for taxpayers with a household income of at least $200,000 a year who paid at least $1 million for their homes. But the principle underlying Lamle’s model applies to everyone who owns a home or is interested in owning one. To wit: You calculate the tax-law-caused loss of value by figuring out how much a house’s price needs to fall for buyers’ or owners’ after-tax costs to be the same now as they were before the tax law changed.
“People buying large-ticket items typically focus on after-tax costs of ownership,” Lamle told me. “The amount that many buyers can afford is affected by limits on their financial resources. Therefore, as their tax costs increase substantially because of the loss of tax deductions, they have less money available to pay for homes and to take on mortgage debt.”
At the suggestion of one of my editors, I asked Lamle to use a modified version of his economic model to estimate the tax law’s impact on the value of a theoretical house in the New York City suburb of West Orange, New Jersey, purchased for $800,000 in 2017 by a theoretical family with a $250,000 annual income. Those home value and income numbers are very high by national standards — but middle class by the standards of large parts of suburban Essex County.
Real estate tax on that theoretical house would run about $28,900 a year, according to statistics from the New Jersey state treasurer’s office. That tax used to be fully deductible for federal tax purposes. Now, it’s not deductible at all if you assume that the house’s owners are taking the standard deduction on their federal returns. Or that even if they’re itemizing deductions, they’re paying at least $10,000 of state income taxes, which means they don’t get any benefit from deducting property taxes.
According to Lamle’s calculations, this inability to deduct real estate tax has reduced the home’s value by $138,720, assuming a 5% mortgage rate. At a 4% rate, the value loss is $173,400. (For the math and assumptions underlying these numbers, see his methodology below.) So if the family put up $200,000 — 25% of the purchase price — to buy the house, more than half of that investment has been wiped out.
Obviously, it’s impossible to prove that Zandi and Lamle are right about the impact they say the tax law is having (and will continue to have) on home prices, because there’s no way to gauge the accuracy of their numbers. But the logic is compelling.
Real Estate Taxes of almost $29k a year for a $800k property Fuck me! I will never say anything bad about what I pay in CA ever.
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10-12-2019, 09:09 AM #7621
Yeah, it's really bad in NJ and Westchester. The market was still down to stagnant since the crash, and this tax bill has really hurt. And, like it or not, but this is the middle class getting hit.
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10-12-2019, 09:22 AM #7622
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10-12-2019, 09:30 AM #7623
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10-12-2019, 10:02 AM #7624"fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-12-2019, 10:14 AM #7625
Dude, we don't live in a place surrounded by dry tinder. And, it was that way a hundred years ago out there. Everybody moves to a dry place, settles in, and then get all freaked out when the world burns. But, the surfing is good, right?
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