Real Estate Crash thread

[Kinnikinnick]

Wouldn't you just a multiple counter offer to both?

How’s that work? They both accept?




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[Kinnikinnick]

Sign both offers, sales price ♾

Exactly.

ask all offerers to resubmit highest and best price without escalation clauses and perhaps dropping contingencies IMO


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[Toadman]

X

What in the hell is going on in Cleveland? And why isn't Seattle on that chart?

FWIW, was in Seattle over the weekend, and it is tent city and boarded up retail. It's basically like something out of Escape from New York, but without Snake Pliskin and a missing POTUS.

[Name Redacted]

What in the hell is going on in Cleveland? And why isn't Seattle on that chart?

FWIW, was in Seattle over the weekend, and it is tent city and boarded up retail. It's basically like something out of Escape from New York, but without Snake Pliskin and a missing POTUS.

Seattle is in Washington y’all. 🙄

Denver is the same as Seattle in some neighborhoods. Been down there for work a few times lately and it is pretty surreal, especially late at night. Walked a few miles across town to my hotel at 2am one night. Didn’t see a single person.

[Dantheman]

Hydraulic modeling paid for buy the entities that can benefit from having more paper water to sell is one of the most transparent jokes in development. It goes something like this:

"If we skew all the supply assumptions on the high side and all the consumption assumptions on the low side and you write us a really big check for some Jr. High level excel deliverables, you can sell water water taps. There is really no downside."

Oh those shenanigans definitely happen, but this doesn't seem to be one of those situations. Moab was relying on decades-old data that said there was tons of extra water in their aquifer, but now new data suggests there's a fraction of that amount and suddenly it's a major "Oh shit" moment. They could have been measuring the aquifer discharge rate at the spring, which could have provided early clues to this situation, at effectively zero cost. A weir or flume and a data-logging pressure transducer costs nothing relative to the city's operating budget, probably less than filling a few potholes.


Back to the real estate in the West in general, look at this picture and tell me which part of the country is going to grow the most in the next 50 years:

[RoooR]

X

Shout out to my landlord that didn't raise my rent once from 2012-2016 allowing me to save enough cash to buy the sweet pad I'm in now.

[skaredshtles]

Oh those shenanigans definitely happen, but this doesn't seem to be one of those situations. Moab was relying on decades-old data that said there was tons of extra water in their aquifer, but now new data suggests there's a fraction of that amount and suddenly it's a major "Oh shit" moment. They could have been measuring the aquifer discharge rate at the spring, which could have provided early clues to this situation, at effectively zero cost. A weir or flume and a data-logging pressure transducer costs nothing relative to the city's operating budget, probably less than filling a few potholes.


Back to the real estate in the West in general, look at this picture and tell me which part of the country is going to grow the most in the next 50 years:

What I'm wondering is - what in the FUCK is this in the red area??

[schuss]

I think that's near Billings - aren't there a bunch of gas plumes that are lit on fire to burn excess there? (haven't been, but have friends there)

[Greenstateofmind]

Clark Grisswald’s house?

[LegoSkier]

What I'm wondering is - what in the FUCK is this in the red area??

Dakota oil fields?

[skaredshtles]

I think that's near Billings - aren't there a bunch of gas plumes that are lit on fire to burn excess there? (haven't been, but have friends there)

Naw - Billings is at the north end of the Bighorn mountains - it's a little strip of light running SW<->NE.

I guess the Dakota oil fields are the likeliest answer...

[fastfred]

Affordable housing in mtn towns like yeah affordable at 500k with all kinds of restrictions about two years ago the spineless county commissioners decided to move towards a minimum wage law for scummit county sure enough the same d bags who can't say the words affordable housing enough every day flipped out and shut it down

Imagine that shit

I know someone who tried to legit short term rent a room out of there house and got shut down by the government the only way to afford there over priced house was to short term the room. They still rent it and the hoa looks the other way. Politicians and govt workers can't get out of there own way sometimes.

[Toadman]

I'm thinking that's North of the border and Regina?

[RootSkier]

Pretty sure it's the Bakken in western ND and a little of eastern MT. I am looking at northern MN with Lake Superior and essentially drawing a line to the top of Puget Sound...and yeah, that's ND.

I haven't driven through in quite a few years but last time I did was fucking ASTOUNDED by the number of rigs and active wells in the Bakken, and that was just what I could see from I-94. It was mind-boggling.

[Conundrum]

Billings is the light dot above the mountains in the middle of MT. Big one in question is probably Nodak.

[Mazderati]

Sturgis. Smash Mouth concert.

[Kevo]

I don't know if I'd agree with that assessment of the CB snowpack. As long as you have a snowmobile, the snowpack from Irwin to Paradise divide is a bit different- I'd even go so far as to compare it to the Wasatch since the snow totals are similar most years.
Closer to town, it sucks as bad as the rest of CO. And lots of places suck this season.

BurnHard- The ice climbing from CB is quite good, with the Lake City ice park only an hour and a half away and much less crowded than Ouray, not to mention all the natural ice there and in the Black. And Ouray isn't that much farther, either. I think the rock climbing is kinda meh, I've never gotten excited about the climbing at Hartman's, Harmels, or Spring Creek personally. MTB and trail running is obviously world class. Happy to chat real estate if you want to PM me.

GoldenBoy obviously knows CB way, way better than I do. Good to know about the snowpack a little outside of town- I knew that there was more snow further out, makes sense that it is more stable (bridging effect, etc). My closest CB friends got a sled this year to get to the deeper snow further out.

From my limited experience, I do think that CB has one of the best communities in the entire mountain west. The terrain at the resort is also incredible. Plus, all the above-mentioned info about MTB and trail running.

I chose Driggs because it has more consistent lift-accessed powder and a snowpack that allows for getting on steeper backcountry lines in the winter. KJAC is also a bit better connected to the East and West Coast for work travel in comparison to KGUC.

[Toadman]

Naw - Billings is at the north end of the Bighorn mountains - it's a little strip of light running SW<->NE.

I guess the Dakota oil fields are the likeliest answer...

They need to turn them damn lights off in Williston.

[yeahman]

I think that's near Billings - aren't there a bunch of gas plumes that are lit on fire to burn excess there? (haven't been, but have friends there)

Yes, it's the natural gas flaring from the wells. What a waste.

However, I think that pic is old because they are currently capturing 75% or 80% of the gas or something like that. At one point it was really bad but I think it's improved.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I chose Driggs because it has more consistent lift-accessed powder

Not for long!....and so it goes. All you need now is a girlfriend that's a realtor and you'll be getting invited to all the good Teton Valley cocktail parties. Now all the Colorado transplants that moved there 15 years ago will be cashing out and moving to the Star Valley now that their kids are off to college, reminiscing about now it used to be.

[Kevo]

To be fair, there looks to be some really redeeming things about Star Valley. Good mountain access for sledding and backcountry, great fishing, and several people have recently mentioned to me about there being a good healthcare system there. Also looked to be a lot of tail draggers at the airport the last time I was down there, so presumably there is a good backcountry flying scene as well. It might well be the next place people want to move to.

[zion zig zag]

I'm not sure that Star Valley is the less crowded alternative that you guys think it is. Subdivisions are popping up all over down there.

[Toadman]

I'm not sure that Star Valley is the less crowded alternative that you guys think it is. Subdivisions are popping up all over down there.

That's some seriously cheap land for sale. Just for comparison, you would pay 5x-8x those prices for the same size lot here in Bend.

https://www.zillow.com/star-valley-ranch-wy/

[AdironRider]

Star Valley Ranch is well over an hour away from any source of income, and requires at least 350 a square to build currently. That doesn't include well, septic, the lot, or sitework.

So yeah, 800k to a million for a place in Star Valley fucking Ranch is going to be a tough sell to anyone. You can buy some existing stock for 500k+, but they don't even have mail delivery there, and half the places are stuck on DSL internet, so WFH isn't that feasible for two working adults.

[anotherVTskibum]

So yeah, 800k to a million for a place in Star Valley fucking Ranch is going to be a tough sell to anyone. You can buy some existing stock for 500k+, but they don't even have mail delivery there, and half the places are stuck on DSL internet, so WFH isn't that feasible for two working adults.

This is why Starlink is going to be a game changer for rural real estate, IMO.

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