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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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10-18-2021, 09:47 AM #18651Registered User
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And if you own 3,800 homes, it isn't a bad way to drive the price up. It isn't like there's really any kind of legal requirement for their Zestimates to be accurate AFAIK. Zillow buying homes definitely presents a conflict of interest.
But I'm not complaining, if it drives up the price of my home then so be it. Just good to know when you are scrolling through Zillow that the properties listed in the first 48 hrs might have a more accurate value listed. And you can always look at the history anyway.
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10-18-2021, 10:10 AM #18652
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10-18-2021, 10:12 AM #18653Registered User
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I think Zillow flipping homes is pretty interesting - it's basically a claim their pricing hocus pocus works and they can reliably identify underpriced homes, so they're really putting their money where their mouth is. Funny thing is, I took a cursory look at some of the homes they bought and are selling in the Portland area, and they've had to drop the price on a decent chunk of them to below what they paid, which suggests to me their pricing hocus pocus isn't working that well. No skin off my nose if they want to overpay for homes on which they then take a bath -- as long as they don't steal a home I'm looking at out from under me :-)
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10-18-2021, 10:21 AM #18654
And there is a certain logic to it, right? I mean, Zillow themselves always says the zestimate is a thumbnail estimate, because it cannot take into account the particular details of a particular property. So when someone who can take into account the particular details of a particular property -- the owner -- lists the property at a price significantly higher than the zestimate, it might be because the property is actually worth more than that rough estimate. So zillow changes the zestimate.
Or at least that would be what their response would be.
Yes. Same neighborhood even."fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-18-2021, 10:21 AM #18655
If you think Zillow is able to manipulate the market by owning 3,800 homes, what do you think about the 80,000 homes owned by BalckRock?
The U.S. has roughly 140 million housing units. Of those 140 million units, about 80 million are stand-alone single-family homes. Of those 80 million, about 15 million are rental properties. Of those 15 million single-family rentals, institutional investors own about 300,000; most of the rest are owned by individual landlords. Of that 300,000, BlackRock—largely through its investment in the real-estate rental company Invitation Homes—owns about 80,000.
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10-18-2021, 10:23 AM #18656
There's also this: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/21/99853...home-appraisal
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10-18-2021, 11:36 AM #18657
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10-18-2021, 11:44 AM #18658Registered User
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10-18-2021, 12:01 PM #18659
Speaking of zillow buying homes....but did you miss the news this morning? Hurry and buy your home now that your competition is gone:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/zi...r-271634565866
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10-18-2021, 12:21 PM #18660
Checking in from Teton Valley.
Things appear to be slowing a bit here. Average days on market is up significantly and shitty inventory at ridiculously inflated pricing is still trickling onto the market and not moving.
Examples of shitty/overpriced inventory here, here and here.
There are some spec homes being built in my neighborhood at $500/ sq foot that haven't hit the market yet. It'll be interesting to see if that inventory gets absorbed or not. The "buy at any cost" feeding frenzy has definitely slowed since the summer.
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10-18-2021, 01:21 PM #18661Registered User
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10-18-2021, 01:32 PM #18662
Things def seem to have stalled a little bit, curious to see if things that are priced for peak construction cost sell or if dev's lose their asses. These guys put in some cookie cutter townhome down from me with a nice view of Fall River's trash pit, the silent auction 4 at a time is a nice touch.
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10-18-2021, 02:09 PM #18663
Last year was so crazy that everyone sees the slowdown and thinks "ooh, does this mean things are cooling" or even "ooh, here comes the crash". But if you excised last year out of our consciousness, what I am seeing here, and what everyone is reporting in this thread, is completely normal seasonal slowdown in a strong market, not anything remotely resembling a true pullback.
I hope I am wrong, because now, as a non-homeowner that wants to buy back in at some point, I would love a crash. But so far, I don't see any signs of that or even a real flattening beyond the usual seasonal one."fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-18-2021, 02:33 PM #18664Hucked to flat once
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Boise and Idaho in general are seeing a slight slowdown from last year's peak. But, if you look at prices from two years ago, still way above anything that would be considered normal appreciation and growth. We've got a long way to tumble before being considered back to normal like you're saying.
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10-18-2021, 02:38 PM #18665
I have friends that just moved to Boise from PDX. They found a nice SFH up against the mountains within city limits for $500k. They were house shopping for a total of one weekend and avoided bidding wars.
The price is still high compared to pre-2020 levels, but not terrible.
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10-18-2021, 02:46 PM #18666Hucked to flat once
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Terrible is relative. A house we were looking at buying to move into (didn't due to some structural issues) sold 2/20 and just sold again for 70% more. Probably doesn't seem bad if you're coming in with your pockets full of big city equity cheddar but tough for the natives. Unless you were already in the game. I doubt it's going to every really get back to pre '20 levels though. Personally, we're in a good spot but many are not if they want to stick around. Such is life. Embrace the change right?
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10-18-2021, 03:25 PM #18667
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10-18-2021, 03:29 PM #18668
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10-18-2021, 03:39 PM #18669
Right - And the sooner you lock in that sub 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, the better.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortg...160021820.html"We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch
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10-18-2021, 03:44 PM #18670Registered User
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Seasonal slowdown is seasonal.
People who cashed out always hope for a crash but what if you can’t get the bank to give you money? You think the bank is gonna lend people money to buy houses that are tanking in value? Sure, when things correct and start heading back up you might find a good deal but that’s gonna be years out.
Anyway, I don’t see thing really crashing, at least not in this area, maybe they’ll level out for a while.
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10-18-2021, 03:57 PM #18671"fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
"She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
"everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy
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10-18-2021, 04:39 PM #18672
I'm not suggesting trying to time the market, but if it was possible it would be great to sell out during low rates and buy back during high rates assuming monthly payments stay the same. You'd keep your monthly payment the same and make $$ by extracting money at the high and reinvesting in a down market.
I know of someone who tried to do this in Vancouver BC at "the peak" in 2018. Last I heard he's still waiting on a crash...
1/2 of this particular couple grew up in Boise. This couple has lived all over the country building their careers and finally are buying their first home in Boise after scrimping and saving for years and years. Their monthly payment in Boise for a SFH is going to be less than the cost of their apartment in PDX.
One works locally, but the other did have to import a remote job to Boise to make it work though.
Seems like a major risk to develop property at the moment. Even modest trim levels are costing developers $400/sq foot at the moment. Like you said, it's possible that some may end up upside down. I'm not sure if there is enough demand to sell 48 new 1100-1400 sq foot townhomes in Driggs at $600k+.
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10-18-2021, 04:58 PM #18673Hucked to flat once
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Hey, no shade on people moving here whether they have roots or not. If I thought that way, I'd be plenty pissed most of the time and I tried that for a bit (probably will see that in my past postings if you look for it). Only pointing out that compared to Portland, CA, TX, Chicago, Seattle etc, it seems pretty reasonable (not terrible in your words). Compared to a lot of other places and local incomes, it's growing out of reach and that includes rents which to me seems kind of terrible. And I doubt prices are going to come down or wages are going to go up for folks like teachers and nurses to be able to afford to buy here.
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10-18-2021, 06:11 PM #18674
Out walking the pups this afternoon, one of the neighbors asked if I heard about the house across the street built in 1950, very original but clean and painted on a 100 X 100 lot. I said I thought he took it off the market after a couple of weeks of no offers? Nope, almost $1M over the asking price of $3M for an obvious tear down
Unbelievable...
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10-18-2021, 08:35 PM #18675
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