Real Estate Crash thread

[dunfree]

Elon Musk FSBO.
https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/ar...e-15245124.php

smart. He’ll be chilling with Jho Low soon.

[4matic]

Dream house just popped up for sale locally. Kept some powder dry to hop in the right place, but the market has me so nervous to buy right now.

If it’s a 10-20 year home price shouldn’t matter that much. So you lose some money; you enjoy the house. That’s worth a lot.

[liv2ski]

If it’s a 10-20 year home price shouldn’t matter that much. So you lose some money; you enjoy the house. That’s worth a lot.

Yup, seems like we have bought 2 homes that depreciated from time of purchase for 3-4 years. 10 years later, solidly in the black.

[dunfree]

Yup, seems like we have bought 2 homes that depreciated from time of purchase for 3-4 years. 10 years later, solidly in the black.

The lesson from the last 30 years is If you aren’t in the black after 10 years you need to ask “why am I living here”.

[Name Redacted]

Some interesting advice:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...of2&yptr=yahoo

Finally, the fact Warren Buffett was hoarding a “record amount of cash,” as he did in 2000, was another sign of what’s to come, he said.

Beyond his reasoning for the call, Meade offered some drastic advice to Americans, who he said should be building up as big a savings buffer as possible to weather a job loss or reduced income.

“Downsize your house if you can. With mortgage rates at record lows and with summer upon us, we’ll likely get a quick ‘dead cat bounce’ in the housing market.

“Anything liquid and of value, sell now: art, coins, handbags, stamps, extra cars.” He added that people should go to cash in retirement accounts if possible and reduce non essential spending, such as dining out.

[Skidog]

Odd, were you getting some sort of Government sponsored loan (FHA, VA, etc) as conventional lenders don't care.

Had a ton of trouble too. Seems they tighted things up a bit, least in NY. Lenders wouldn't touch the place even at 90% finished. Had to be 100% done before the appraiser would sign off. I thought it odd too.

I understand it as even if you dumped a bunch of cash in it and the Lender forecloses on you. House actually worth more than what they're lending, yet any profit they make from foreclosure sale goes back to you.

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[dunfree]

Some interesting advice:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...of2&yptr=yahoo

That seems dumb panic pablum. Take the last 13 years. Some shit in all of those categories (except maybe stamps? Dunno) did really well. Some didn’t.

[Mazderati]

I made an offer on a HomePath (Fannie) short sale probably 10 or 11 years ago. There was not even the faintest whiff of willingness to negotiate on price; all pricing was on their terms on their timeline. My offer was refused. The property sat another month and the price was reduced. I made a second offer. Offer refused. I walked. Property sold a few months later for less than my second offer. So, expect a lot of bureaucracy and 'just doing my job' attitude even if it means stepping on their own dick.

[goldenboy]

...So I should sell my Jordan rookie card right now while "The Last Dance" is popular?

[Name Redacted]

That seems dumb panic pablum. Take the last 13 years. Some shit in all of those categories (except maybe stamps? Dunno) did really well. Some didn’t.

I agree it is on the panic side of the spectrum for sure. However, the point that Buffet is stockpiling cash, and Musk is selling all of his material possessions is intriguing. I guess time will tell.

[BFD]

The lesson from the last 30 years is If you aren’t in the black after 10 years you need to ask “why am I living here”.

well that is a dumb comment

[dunfree]

well that is a dumb comment

There’s plenty of good reasons to live places home prices don’t skyrocket. But if you are looking for them to keep going up, and they’ve been dormant for a decade, you better take a good look around. That’s not saying “don’t buy”, it’s just changing the numbers.

I know of an upstate NY neighborhood where home prices have barely changed in 2+ decades, but you can still make money on rentals. Not much on the scale here, maybe $5-15k a year, but not nothing.

[dunfree]

I agree it is on the panic side of the spectrum for sure. However, the point that Buffet is stockpiling cash, and Musk is selling all of his material possessions is intriguing. I guess time will tell.

Elon’s selling homes he’s mortgaged, and is heavily leveraged on margin loans. He’s got a hugely overvalued thing he could acquire stuff with at little cost - TSLA stock - but doesn’t.

Warrens hoarding to acquire.

[Benny Profane]

That seems dumb panic pablum. Take the last 13 years. Some shit in all of those categories (except maybe stamps? Dunno) did really well. Some didn’t.

Dude, you won't be able to go to a bar or a movie or fly on a plane or stay in a hotel or even think of a live concert or game without risking your or your family's health, big time, for a long time. This isn't going to be the last 13 years.

[Benny Profane]

There’s plenty of good reasons to live places home prices don’t skyrocket. But if you are looking for them to keep going up, and they’ve been dormant for a decade, you better take a good look around. That’s not saying “don’t buy”, it’s just changing the numbers.

I know of an upstate NY neighborhood where home prices have barely changed in 2+ decades, but you can still make money on rentals. Not much on the scale here, maybe $10-15k a year, but not nothing.

I bought a condo almost six years ago that is still flat. Since I rented, I carried no equity for years, and more than anything I wanted stability in my life in a decent place that, after taxes, was 25% cheaper than renting here. Flat means I bought the bottom, which is ok, but it does make me question whether buying or the freedom and lower initial capital outlay of renting would have been better. Tough call. In the end, I'll take the stability. We're looking at a whole new housing market soon, which is probably at least two years out, when the dust starts to clear. So many factors to think about in so many markets, and none are immune to change. Just one thing to look at is how Zooming and similar work software changes the whole cube scene, which has been altered by robots like most anything else.

So, anyway, I think it's pretty dumb to buy something right now until maybe 2022, at least, if you're a first timer, and if somebody is offering you some decent change for whatever you "own" right now, take it and sign short term leases. Hopefully the Mrs. agrees, but that could be the problem. Lord knows what's up for the next decade, so I think a 30 year obligation to a forever underwater asset is something to be avoided.

[dunfree]

Dude, you won't be able to go to a bar or a movie or fly on a plane or stay in a hotel or even think of a live concert or game without risking your or your family's health, big time, for a long time. This isn't going to be the last 13 years.

so people with jobs will sit at home and overbid on shit online.

I’ll start thinking shits really gonna crash when the people moving away from their mountain dream town on this board exceed the people looking to buy a cheap place in a mountain dream town.

not disagreeing it might not be an optimum time to buy anything, just saying 10 years is a long time.

[Toadman]

...So I should sell my Jordan rookie card right now while "The Last Dance" is popular?

Can you get Jordan to sign it first?

[mcsquared]

I made an offer on a HomePath (Fannie) short sale probably 10 or 11 years ago. There was not even the faintest whiff of willingness to negotiate on price; all pricing was on their terms on their timeline. My offer was refused. The property sat another month and the price was reduced. I made a second offer. Offer refused. I walked. Property sold a few months later for less than my second offer. So, expect a lot of bureaucracy and 'just doing my job' attitude even if it means stepping on their own dick.

This was exactly my experience. I think there was always something shady going on. I made full price offers on a couple foreclosures and never even got a phone call back. Sold for way less than I offered. Then flipped and listed by.. guess who? The agent who never called me back.

[ncskier]

Well I just bought a second home. Wife and I are definite outliers, two stable incomes, high savings, but no way I’m renting or staying in hotels any time soon, so I plunked down the cash for a nice new construction 3 bedroom 2 bath abode (condo) 1400 sq ft. in the Georgetown SC / litchfield beach area. Pricing was competitive but activity was brisk. Was it the ideal time, probably not, but wife and kids were not sitting in the house anymore. The area has tons of rivers and estuary for fishing, beaches and lots of land for hunting in the fall. Charleston is 1 hour and change south.
We normally travel a lot, but she wanted something different but within driving distance.
I’m sure bunny will tell me it will be under water in 10 years, literally and figuratively but I don’t care. If I get that long out of it, I’ll be happy. I don’t care if it goes down in value or goes up either. It’s a consumable expense at this point but a definite shift in family resources from flying, renting type vacations to “owning”.
I would not have purchased if not for lock down and reassessment of future mobility.

Iceman- if you want to swap places in the winter with your soli place I’ll gladly give you details. Georgetown is authentic and the fishing is top notch.


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[iceman]

Yeah we'd have to talk when it gets closer but that might be able to work out. Looks like a cool area. I'll pm you my email in a second here.

[Mazderati]

And not too far from K-Mart by the Sea.

[ncskier]

And not too far from K-Mart by the Sea.

Exactly, I’m firmly dipped in the area that says hunting/fishing just over the 17 bridge or as the local call it, the real mason dixon line. I’m giving away secrets, but winyah bay fishing is awesome for red, trout and tarpon.

[Toadman]

And not too far from K-Mart by the Sea.

Where's the section that gets slammed by hurricanes?

[liv2ski]

Had a ton of trouble too. Seems they tighted things up a bit, least in NY. Lenders wouldn't touch the place even at 90% finished. Had to be 100% done before the appraiser would sign off. I thought it odd too.

I understand it as even if you dumped a bunch of cash in it and the Lender forecloses on you. House actually worth more than what they're lending, yet any profit they make from foreclosure sale goes back to you.

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Not the same. Turned off water in a completed home is no problem. Not completed home is. I have to ask people when I do refi's for them, "is your house complete"? To which they reply, "my kitchen is torn out to the studs". Which is a problem, as the lender will not fund until completed.

[ncskier]

Where's the section that gets slammed by hurricanes?

That would be from NY harbor, around the tip of florida and over to Houston. It's all subject to getting hit.