Real Estate Crash thread

[4matic]

So what is their growth rate? Are you just making stuff up?

[4matic]

And that would be good how? It is not the only way to enable increased profits.

Where did I say it was good?

[jgb@etree]

We’re neighbors. I work above the Victoria’s Secret. That store and the new Nike flagship on the other corner befuddle me as to how the renovation costs and rents can be covered.

Howdy, neighbor. Small world. I'm next door @ 650.

[dunfree]

So what is their growth rate? Are you just making stuff up?

Chinese economic statistics are made up, I'm not making stuff up. What the real rate is is a matter of debate but nobody worth a damn thinks it's 6%. Not that it really matters, because it's somewhat irrelevant. Xi will not give in, the threat is existential for him and the ruling CCP and they aren't going to cave.

[4matic]

Chinese economic statistics are made up, I'm not making stuff up. What the real rate is is a matter of debate but nobody worth a damn thinks it's 6%. Not that it really matters, because it's somewhat irrelevant. Xi will not give in, the threat is existential for him and the ruling CCP and they aren't going to cave.

Who is "anyone worth a damn?" that's just hyperbole. You're fitting your own narrative as always and making it political; you sound like spook.

How about World Bank as a reference.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg

[Micol]

^ good stuff and insights, thanks

[dunfree]

and making it political

it's china, of course it's political. Now - here are the China shills (they regularly took Chinese cash) from Brookings telling you it's 1.7% lower than reported on average. "Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDPgrowth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in2016 is 7 percentage points lower"
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...ysis-China.pdf
there's plenty more out there if you want, or not, I really don't GAF. you'll backfill for your own narrative of autofellation.

[wooley12]

Where did I say it was good?

A lot of people say that be greed is good.
Your opinion would add value to the post.

[4matic]

it's china, of course it's political. Now - here are the China shills (they regularly took Chinese cash) from Brookings telling you it's 1.7% lower than reported on average. "Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDPgrowth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in2016 is 7 percentage points lower"
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...ysis-China.pdf
there's plenty more out there if you want, or not, I really don't GAF. you'll backfill for your own narrative of autofellation.

Nice dodge. I said 6% and consensus is 6.6. If you take 1.7% from annual consensus what’s that 5%? Let’s meet in the middle at 5.5%. So you’re laughing about a generalization of .5% when my point was their 10y rate is trading at almost half their growth rate.

Great work. Top notch! So smart and enlightening.

[4matic]

Bears think China's flat or maybe contracting a bit. Their auto sales are down 20%+ YoY in late 2018 & early 2019, as an example of supporting evidence alongside recessionary tech spending in Asia.

Educated bulls think China's growth is in the range of 2-4%, albeit heavily reliant on increasing leverage (which is very high to start with). And by educated bulls I mean macro portfolio managers.

2-4% real growth. Not nominal GDP.

USA is goosed from tax cuts and fed. Not entirely different.



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[SKIP IN7RO]

I thought you left out the oceanfront view picture, but nope, it's 180 million and in Bel-Air.

[Mazderati]

[skaredshtles]

WTF is wrong with rich people? They seem to be almost universally unbalanced.

[AdironRider]

Seems to be the most common fault of successful people is that they all think since they are amazing at one thing, they will be amazing at anything else they try.

[spanky]

I could go for that. Next week?

Who knew that TGR was a match-making site???

Are you asking me out on a date? How about a 3-way with jgb?

Dig Inn is good, but no place to sit.

Howdy, neighbor. Small world. I'm next door @ 650.

[bizarrefaith]

Seems to be the most common fault of successful people is that they all think since they are amazing at one thing, they will be amazing at anything else they try.

And they are more likely to be surrounded by sycophants who assure them constantly of their unimpeachable greatness.

[Benny Profane]

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/

Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.

[jackstraw]

The market is starting to stagnate here. The multi-million dollar homes are selling for cash still, but the half-million to a million+ are slowing.

I looked at a single-story 1400sqft cottage. Dirt crawl space, uninsulated foundation and floor, wall insulation "unknown", meaning none, shoddy little updated construction to make it appealing at the entrance and inside, no garage. $595 and it's under contract. It's a pos teardown worth maybe $185-200. Unreal. It's just dumb everywhere right now.

[AdironRider]

I'm not saying the market isn't overheated, but there is no way people are overpaying by 225%, no matter how emotional they are about the property.

[jackstraw]

I'm not saying the market isn't overheated, but there is no way people are overpaying by 225%, no matter how emotional they are about the property.

Yeah they are. People are dumb and do not understand simple math.

I just looked and that cottage is under contract. That person is getting fucked. Curbside / walk-in appeal is there along with proximity to the beach. That blinds people.

[AdironRider]

Yeah they are. People are dumb and do not understand simple math.

I just looked and that cottage is under contract. That person is getting fucked. Curbside / walk-in appeal is there along with proximity to the beach. That blinds people.

You act like proximity to the beach isn't worth something. Nevermind all those school districts rank among the best in the state.

If you came around and said they overpaid by 100k, sure that's believable, but 410k? Please.

There haven't been houses in seacoast NH for 185 since like the 80's unless you count Rockingham, Epping, or its a trailer, which well, they all suck. Even the inbreds in Seabrook get over 200 for a crack shack.

[ncskier]

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/

Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.

I read in the Wall Street Journal that NY has lost, even accounting for births and immigration over 1 million residents in the past decade.
A staggering 452K moved out last year. Yes I realize some moved in, but thats a lot of home grown educated talent dispersing.
https://www.democratandchronicle.com...te/3616563002/

I don't want to get into a pissing match with you about Florida or any other southern state, but when you go back to the crippling recession 10 years ago, very high property taxes, cap the SALT at 10k and then lose 1 million people, I wouldn't think outside of a few select enclaves it's much of a buyers market. I would think its the same in places like VT and MA outside of Boston which does a good job attracting young people.
Probably sucks if your dream was to sell and cash out and move to Florida.

[Benny Profane]

The SALT thing has definitely hurt the high tax states, but the market wasn't exactly hot since the 08 crash and recession, besides the oligarch funded luxury stuff in Manhattan, Hamptons, and a few other trophy areas. I live in a pretty upscale Fairfield County town, and I know that many properties are underwater from the peak or just treading water. Of course, the people who are hurting are the ones who bought in or at near the peak, or borrowed at those valuations. So, yeah, a lot can afford to sell and move if they have good equity, although Miami may be a wash in the trade - they've seen a nice boom since bad times.

As far as that high tax thing, well, you get what you pay for. Parents drop the big bucks here for RE because schools, schools, schools, and, of course, they're close to their high paying jobs. Very high paying jobs. They're not going to pack up and move to shithole USA where teachers make less than baristas, and they may have to be a barista, too, if there are even any Starbucks near.

[Iowagriz]

I'm building a new house, should move in mid-December. Which means the market will crash in January. Only saving grace is that I'll be able to convert the construction loan to a low rate fixed.

[Toadman]

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/12/ch...d-major-metro/

Great charts. No wonder the people who live in the west think that the market is booming again. Some people are still underwater from 08 in the east.

No thinking about it. It IS booming out West. $462k will get you in to a fixer upper 3 bed 2 bath 1,700 sq ft home in a so-so area of town here in Central Oregon. New construction every where you look. Cali retires and Seattilites coming down and paying cash on $800k plus homes is the norm.