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Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
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09-12-2019, 01:46 PM #7526
So what? Do you think the people living in Seattle want to move somewhere else? Where? Repeat it for any of the booming west coast & sunbelt metro areas you want.
It should be clear by now that the '08 crash wasn't the same everywhere. Someplaces like CT never recovered because those cushy finance jobs never came back to CT and there was nothing else in CT and noone really wanted to live in CT (see masses of people on TGR who grew up in CT and moved away and get offended by you calling it a shithole). Other places the dip was momentary (Seattle, Bay Area) because they are still desirable places to live. Desires change over time of course, but do you see a mass migration of the US population back to the rust belt?
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09-12-2019, 02:12 PM #7527
Yup. When I saw all the banks roll out the Liar Loans in 2003/04 I closed my mortgage company down, as I didn't want to risk huge buy backs on fraudulent origination's. That never happened, buybacks that is, so I should of stayed open. Instead I went to work for a bank as a wholesale AE. During my interview I told the VP that when all those loans blew up in a few years, I would handle their REOs for them. She gave me a horrified look and said "don't ever say that to anyone at the bank".
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09-12-2019, 02:32 PM #7528
Housing prices are mildly dumb everywhere, but I have yet to hear of weird products driving it, more a lot of cash from investors.
If anything, a few VCs and F100s will collapse, but there's plenty of healthy balance sheets out there.
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09-12-2019, 03:22 PM #7529
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09-12-2019, 03:26 PM #7530
There will be some localised crashes, including California (where it actually happens a lot), Denver, and maybe ski towns. The national market won't crash. It did that ten years ago.
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09-12-2019, 03:55 PM #7531
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09-12-2019, 04:48 PM #7532
The recession will bring on localised crashes, like in 91.
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09-12-2019, 05:13 PM #7533
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09-12-2019, 06:05 PM #7534Registered User
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Huh. When's the last time you were in a ski town? Explain please
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09-12-2019, 06:06 PM #7535
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09-12-2019, 06:46 PM #7536
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09-12-2019, 07:22 PM #7537
It is here, there is only 3% of developable land in the county, and we have cool summers and lots of fresh water.
I guess the Supernova could put an end to it.Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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09-12-2019, 07:33 PM #7538
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09-12-2019, 07:56 PM #7539
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09-12-2019, 08:30 PM #7540
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09-12-2019, 08:36 PM #7541
It happens, amigo. Boston and NY in 91, including the NE ski market, California maybe four times. 08 is in everybody's memory because it was nearly nationwide, which was a first. Actually, international, including disasters in Ireland and Spain at the time. Now Denver wasn't hit hard because it didn't bubble. Well, now it is. Guess whats next? After all the jobs go away.
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09-12-2019, 08:39 PM #7542Registered User
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every day a 1000 new trust fund millenials are minted the average Joe ain't ski town material
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09-12-2019, 09:34 PM #7543
Real Estate Crash thread
Most of NE’s residential is selling above prior highs, often way above in higher end communities. Greater Boston (metro west, wtf?), Southern NH, Southern ME, RI (Providence is bumpin) etc, urban areas where about 75% of the population lives. I suppose I’m not certain about CT, but that isn’t really NE anyways. VT slow as usual but no one lives there. Whether or not it’s overvalued, shrug
Last edited by Self Jupiter; 09-12-2019 at 09:58 PM.
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09-12-2019, 10:04 PM #7544
Compared to what? Bumfuck secondary and tertiary communitys in the west? I've seen zero evidence those secondary and tertiary communitys are willing to change to sustainably grow and maintain a comparative QOL advantage. They aren't just doubling down on the planning fuckups of California and Oregon and Washington they are largely tripling down on them. Bozeman? An expensive vis a vis wages sprawling suburban hole in the mountains proximate to increasingly crowded recreation. Ugh.
It's great to think of a future where all those trust fund millennials fight over the same dozen awesome ski towns in the west that are overcrowded and unsustainable with little developable land within a 30 minute drive forcing people to the flatland dumps of Idaho or Colorado so they can fund fastfred and rideits retirement .... but is that what the millenials want? Are those FIREs going to be able to keep going?
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09-12-2019, 10:57 PM #7545
outside of nature access to mountains & desert SLC is a dump. with comparatively low salary. if by "active" you mean "likes mountains" yes, it's still better. I see "likes mountains" as a declining pool of people. it's TGR so everyone talks their book (see rideit).
the data is there to show the shakeout from california is lower income "lower skill" workers. the "best and brightest" are still going there, and Seattle, etc. etc. so if you think things are going to change it's far more than just a shuffling of seats.
not that I'm a huge fan of SF or Seattle these days, just pointing out that if you think they are going to crash there are huge economic implications across the US because our internet overlords have been the best and biggest and brightest sources of $ growth.
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09-13-2019, 05:23 AM #7546
Greater Boston metro up to Portland is above prior highs as the tech/robotics/AI boom has poured money into Boston and Portland finally has more companies with decent jobs. It will correct, but based on incomes in southern NH, I'd only expect a 5-10% correction in NH.
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09-13-2019, 06:19 AM #7547
Maybe now that we are pretty much past peak unicorn with this stupid Wework thing walking around with it's pants around it's ankles and Uber and Lyft licking their wounds, the tech money won't be flowing so freely.
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09-13-2019, 06:37 AM #7548Banned
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As someone who has lived in/around both, I would live in the greater SLC area over greater Seattle every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Western Washington blows. Shit weather(and FTR, it isn't the rain that bothers me, it's that there aren't any fucking seasons out here. Three weeks of high pressure doesn't constitute summer, just like 6 months of 50 degrees and drizzly isn't winter by any sane definition. The weather is damn near the same year round; it never gets hot, it never gets cold, it's fucking garbage), criminally overcrowded, regressive state taxes, entitled, aloof residents, shitty drivers, the list goes on.
As far as day-to-day livability goes, it's neck and neck with New Jersey. Congestion is rapidly making this area unlivable, and I have a 4 mile commute. Despite hellish, human-choked reality which confronts everyone who lives here anytime they venture outside the confines of their homes, every planner and city council member across the region is lining up to give a nice sloppy rimjob to any developer who wants to shoehorn more housing into a region that is already critically exceeded its human carrying capacity.
"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of cancer," and western Washington has a terminal case.
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09-13-2019, 06:57 AM #7549
Hahaha dude you need some pussy. What a miserable guy. Every time I see you post it’s bitching and mostly about the PNW.
Go the fuck home then
Are dumb or just like to be miserable?
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09-13-2019, 07:16 AM #7550Registered User
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it's all about supply and demand right now denver is mellowing out because all the people who can afford a 500k shit box suburban ranch home have bought there is not too many people left that can buy that kind of house
metro denver isn't going to drop in price it's just going to reset to a more sustainable level
housing costs, even that 30 year old shit box are driven by today's contruction costs which no one has figured out how to offshore so labor and material costs are high and only getting higher
I love the statement we are going to build some "affordable housing" well thats a line a shit, due to buiding codes construction costs of multifamily is through the roof the days of building a cheap eightplex are long gone, you can't just have a nice open attic where the flames from apt b can race over to apartment e
mountain town real estate has been driven by the short term rental craze, what is the profit of buying a unit, creating a short term rental, getting to use it and making money
they have been using this bullshit line for forty years up here, "there is a limited amount of developable land" well that's total bullshit, land swaps with the gov't are all to common, look at the dog shit they are throwing up around keystone
summit county colorado will double in the number of units and beds, sure not everyone is going to get a single family home on a nice lot, but density is what it's all about if you think it's bad today it's only going to get worse
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