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  1. #7976
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    I forgot Gen Xers, many of which jumped into the housing market at absolutely the wrong time, and some could be underwater for life.

    The enthusiasm to churn RE is gone. The damage to that mindset will last for years.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  2. #7977
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    Nov 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I visited friends in Boise over the summer and honesty do not understand the appeal. It has all of the detriments of the CO front range but with worse access to mountains.
    And it's hotter.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    I guess it has the best whitewater kayaking close to any major metro.
    Nah, that's Seattle.

  3. #7978
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    Oct 2005
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    And the smugness of Boiseans is catching up to front rangers too.

  4. #7979
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    Maybe everyone from NJ is moving to Boise.

    https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsr...ers-study-2019

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  5. #7980
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    Oct 2005
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    Idaho
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    The eight houses on my street have people from CA owned rental with WA tenants, CA owned rental CA tenants, not sure of rental owners but CA tenants, ID/GA couple (their AB&B ADU is WI tenants looking for a house), ID, CA, TX, and ID. I think there are three Idaho natives-me, my GF and the wife of the couple next door. Not that it matters. Just interesting. Five years ago it was ID, ID, ID, ID/GA (no AB&B), ID, ID, TX, ID with no rentals on the street. Don't see too many east coasters. People are cashing out hard in my neighborhood. The ID lady on the end has tried to cash out three or four times but she's greedy and asks even more than this market will bear. Me, ten years or so more of work and buying something somewhere else. ADU over the garage for us to stay in when we're in town and ours will be a rental too. Would have rather just stayed in our house but the town is changing and not for the good.

    Not a big statistical sample but something I can speak to as the longest term person on the street. It's been an evolution.

  6. #7981
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    Nov 2017
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    144
    Where is the "I have realtors" thread?

    With the poise of a used car salesman, some self important douchebag realtor spots off: "It's a law degree in seven days" Hee Hee Hee Haw Haw Haw





  7. #7982
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    Oct 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conundrum View Post
    The eight houses on my street have people from CA owned rental with WA tenants, CA owned rental CA tenants, not sure of rental owners but CA tenants, ID/GA couple (their AB&B ADU is WI tenants looking for a house), ID, CA, TX, and ID. I think there are three Idaho natives-me, my GF and the wife of the couple next door. Not that it matters. Just interesting. Five years ago it was ID, ID, ID, ID/GA (no AB&B), ID, ID, TX, ID with no rentals on the street. Don't see too many east coasters. People are cashing out hard in my neighborhood. The ID lady on the end has tried to cash out three or four times but she's greedy and asks even more than this market will bear. Me, ten years or so more of work and buying something somewhere else. ADU over the garage for us to stay in when we're in town and ours will be a rental too. Would have rather just stayed in our house but the town is changing and not for the good.

    Not a big statistical sample but something I can speak to as the longest term person on the street. It's been an evolution.
    Man, you really know your neighbors. I could tell you who a few of our neighbors are, but the rest are either absentees, rentals, or who knows. None of them seem bad. Everyone is from somewhere else here (except my wife who actually lived in one of the houses on our street when she was born.)
    Nice thing about STRs and LTRs is if someone sucks, they are usually gone in a few days or a season. There aren't many deadbeat full timers on our block, but the few there are are far enough away to not matter to us.
    Turnover is pretty high, many of the houses have come close to doubling value since 2012 (when we bought). Resort area though, so that is to be expected.

  8. #7983
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    Oct 2005
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    Idaho
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    I try to know my neighbors. Makes it more of community. That feel is almost gone at least in my neighborhood so I'm guessing I won't know them much in future years except the two bordering my property. Everything else is renters that seem to come and go every 2-6 months.

  9. #7984
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    Sep 2006
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    2,991
    HOA in my 'hood has an annual shin dig at the end of summer. Plus they all have dogs. I can't hardly remember my neighbor's names. But the dog's names, no problem. Most on my street, myself included are from King County, WA. The rest are from CA, and two couples are Oregonians. Total of 26 houses. But that's Bend for you. Everyone is from somewhere else it seems. The retired folk come and go, and have no clue what day it is. Trips to see the grand kids. Trips to HA or to Mexico, Europe, etc. Must be nice to be retired with money to travel. Maybe some day....
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  10. #7985
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    Oct 2003
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    I just read this thing from Scott Galloway which explains, using his own experience as an indicator, why the housing market and our economy in general is stuck. He went to UCLA and barely made it out.

    "Some data on why unremarkables have become an endangered species. I’ll use my background as context:

    The acceptance rate at UCLA has gone from 42% (1989) to 12% (2019). Put another way, it’s 3 times as difficult to be a Bruin. 

    In 1992, the annual tuition at Haas was $1,500, and upon graduating I received an offer from a consulting firm at $90,000/year. A degree ROI of 60. Haas tuition in 2020 is $62,000, and the median starting salary of a Haas grad is $140,000, yielding a degree ROI of 2 (97% decline).

    There were nearly twice as many new companies formed each day during the Carter administration vs. now. We are living in an era of non-innovation as a feckless DOJ/FTC and media enable monopoly abuse.

    My first house in San Francisco (Potrero Hill) cost $285,000, two years post-grad school (1994). Our household income was $210,000. A house/income of 1.36. The average house in San Francisco now costs $1.6 million, and a married couple (both MBAs, two years post-Haas) could make around $320,000 combined, yielding a ratio of 5. So, housing is almost 4x the cost.

    In 1997 we purchased a home in Noe Valley (next-door to where the Zuck lives now … no joke) for $760,000 and sold it 2 years later for $1.2 million. I used the gain to move to NYC, start an e-commerce incubator (Brand Farm), and purchase stock in Nike, Oracle, Apple, and disk drive firm Iomega.

    My tax rate on the proceeds from the sale of L2 was approximately 20%. I’m a Florida resident (no state income tax), and Obama passed Section 1202, which exempts the first $10 million in proceeds.

    In sum, unremarkable kids no longer have access to remarkable opportunities. Today, I would not be admitted to a good school, wouldn’t be able to start a business due to crushing student loan debt, wouldn’t be able to buy a house, invest in stocks, or start a business. My professional life, and economic fortune, would foot to who I was/am — unremarkable. "

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  11. #7986
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    I just read this thing from Scott Galloway which explains, using his own experience as an indicator, why the housing market and our economy in general is stuck. He went to UCLA and barely made it out.

    "Some data on why unremarkables have become an endangered species. I’ll use my background as context:

    The acceptance rate at UCLA has gone from 42% (1989) to 12% (2019). Put another way, it’s 3 times as difficult to be a Bruin. 

    In 1992, the annual tuition at Haas was $1,500, and upon graduating I received an offer from a consulting firm at $90,000/year. A degree ROI of 60. Haas tuition in 2020 is $62,000, and the median starting salary of a Haas grad is $140,000, yielding a degree ROI of 2 (97% decline).

    There were nearly twice as many new companies formed each day during the Carter administration vs. now. We are living in an era of non-innovation as a feckless DOJ/FTC and media enable monopoly abuse.

    My first house in San Francisco (Potrero Hill) cost $285,000, two years post-grad school (1994). Our household income was $210,000. A house/income of 1.36. The average house in San Francisco now costs $1.6 million, and a married couple (both MBAs, two years post-Haas) could make around $320,000 combined, yielding a ratio of 5. So, housing is almost 4x the cost.

    In 1997 we purchased a home in Noe Valley (next-door to where the Zuck lives now … no joke) for $760,000 and sold it 2 years later for $1.2 million. I used the gain to move to NYC, start an e-commerce incubator (Brand Farm), and purchase stock in Nike, Oracle, Apple, and disk drive firm Iomega.

    My tax rate on the proceeds from the sale of L2 was approximately 20%. I’m a Florida resident (no state income tax), and Obama passed Section 1202, which exempts the first $10 million in proceeds.

    In sum, unremarkable kids no longer have access to remarkable opportunities. Today, I would not be admitted to a good school, wouldn’t be able to start a business due to crushing student loan debt, wouldn’t be able to buy a house, invest in stocks, or start a business. My professional life, and economic fortune, would foot to who I was/am — unremarkable. "
    I tend to agree with his assessment presuming one wanted to follow his path. One could also argue it was not possible in 1992 for an unremarkable kid to make a living playing video games or an unremarkable but hot chick make money posting selfies on Instagram.
    Things change. His example was a glide path in that environment. Consultants rarely pay 90k for kids out of school due to the prevalence of H1B, primarily Indian kids at the remaining big 4. I see it every day in my industry. What he saw as attainable housing in San Francisco was way out of reach for a steel worker being laid off in Pittsburgh in the early 90’s. I do t think the homes in San Francisco are empty yet, so someone is buying them.
    Times change. Those who adapt win. It’s his tech bros who flooded their industry with cheaper foreign labor, gig economy type startups like Uber and are now working on automation solutions to disrupt even more workers.
    He probably opined for California, but ditched it for Florida the minute he was becoming wealthy.
    He might as well say, “ I won and now I feel bad you can’t”

  12. #7987
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    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
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    47,920
    He is saying that. Essentially he's saying the country is fucked because opportunity to prosper is far less widely available than it was in the past.

  13. #7988
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    Just out of curiosity, Benny, how are/were you a Florida resident if you don’t reside there more than 181 days?
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  14. #7989
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    Oct 2003
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    Edit: Oh, no, I'm not a resident, but, from what I understand, for average schmoes, yeah, you have to spend over half the year there to claim residency. You see Florida plates around here in the summer, hardly any in the winter. But, the states in the tri state keep a very close track on this, even staffing well an entire department of tax cops to watch. They keep a very close eye on business owners back here who just go and buy a residence in FL. and try to escape taxes. A few hedgies have tried this recently and been denied. It could literally mean tens of millions or more in lost revenue for one case.
    Last edited by Benny Profane; 01-05-2020 at 02:48 PM.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  15. #7990
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    Oct 2009
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    i see the same, kevo.

    i can’t seem to upload a picture, but 98125 and 98119 are recent examples i have in my inbox from zillow showing forecasted 1-yr decline. for sure has been that way in spots around seattle for a bit.

  16. #7991
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    Apr 2006
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    2,254
    My post was accidentally deleted.

    Here is what it said-
    I've never seen Zillow forecasting declines anywhere. They always seem defiantly bullish. That's new as far as I know.

    Re: Scott Galloway- the numbers just don't add up for paths that once were open. The University of Colorado (my Alma mater and not a great school by any stretch, but still probably the fourth best school in the state behind Air Force, Mines and maybe Colorado College) now costs $120k for an in state undergrad business degree. New grads are lucky to come out earning $45k per year. Out of state costs are now $200k.

    CU's MBA program now costs about $80k for in state tuition and the average starting salary is about $80k.

    Houses in the front range are well out of reach of anyone making $80k, let alone someone servicing student loan debt from undergrad and/or grad school.

    The new MBA is not getting an MBA.

    My office neighbor went to Haas for his MBA. He's a couple years older than me and paid out of state tuition in CA. We have the same title and are in similar divisions of the company. We earn about the same, but I didn't have to pay well over $100k for an MBA.

  17. #7992
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    Aug 2006
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    5,487
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    I just read this thing from Scott Galloway which explains, using his own experience as an indicator, why the housing market and our economy in general is stuck. He went to UCLA and barely made it out.

    "Some data on why unremarkables have become an endangered species. I’ll use my background as context:

    The acceptance rate at UCLA has gone from 42% (1989) to 12% (2019). Put another way, it’s 3 times as difficult to be a Bruin. 

    In 1992, the annual tuition at Haas was $1,500, and upon graduating I received an offer from a consulting firm at $90,000/year. A degree ROI of 60. Haas tuition in 2020 is $62,000, and the median starting salary of a Haas grad is $140,000, yielding a degree ROI of 2 (97% decline).

    There were nearly twice as many new companies formed each day during the Carter administration vs. now. We are living in an era of non-innovation as a feckless DOJ/FTC and media enable monopoly abuse.

    My first house in San Francisco (Potrero Hill) cost $285,000, two years post-grad school (1994). Our household income was $210,000. A house/income of 1.36. The average house in San Francisco now costs $1.6 million, and a married couple (both MBAs, two years post-Haas) could make around $320,000 combined, yielding a ratio of 5. So, housing is almost 4x the cost.

    In 1997 we purchased a home in Noe Valley (next-door to where the Zuck lives now … no joke) for $760,000 and sold it 2 years later for $1.2 million. I used the gain to move to NYC, start an e-commerce incubator (Brand Farm), and purchase stock in Nike, Oracle, Apple, and disk drive firm Iomega.

    My tax rate on the proceeds from the sale of L2 was approximately 20%. I’m a Florida resident (no state income tax), and Obama passed Section 1202, which exempts the first $10 million in proceeds.

    In sum, unremarkable kids no longer have access to remarkable opportunities. Today, I would not be admitted to a good school, wouldn’t be able to start a business due to crushing student loan debt, wouldn’t be able to buy a house, invest in stocks, or start a business. My professional life, and economic fortune, would foot to who I was/am — unremarkable. "
    I don't necessarily disagree that certain asset classes are getting more expensive, notably housing and college.

    However, this guy is so full of shit on calling himself unremarkable. Without even touching this whole concept of this guy starting tech companies and consulting businesses like they are nothing, median household income in 1994 was barely over 30k a year. He started out at 3x that in 1992 and by 1994 was making 7x the average household income. Median home costs were 125k in 1994, he bought a place again, at almost 3x that cost. In 1994 less than 5% of the population held a masters degree, and not even 25% held a bachelors.

    This guy has been at the top of the food chain his entire life and is trying to humble brag at best that he is just some regular guy. It was never that easy to become a millionaire and this guy is acting like anyone could do it back in the day. The facts say otherwise. This dude has been in the top 5% of households in basically every statistical category of education and income his entire life and acts like it was just average, not even that he just got lucky.
    Live Free or Die

  18. #7993
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    ^^^That.

    Dude in the article sounds like a douche.
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  19. #7994
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    I don't necessarily disagree that certain asset classes are getting more expensive, notably housing and college.

    However, this guy is so full of shit on calling himself unremarkable. Without even touching this whole concept of this guy starting tech companies and consulting businesses like they are nothing, median household income in 1994 was barely over 30k a year. He started out at 3x that in 1992 and by 1994 was making 7x the average household income. Median home costs were 125k in 1994, he bought a place again, at almost 3x that cost. In 1994 less than 5% of the population held a masters degree, and not even 25% held a bachelors.

    This guy has been at the top of the food chain his entire life and is trying to humble brag at best that he is just some regular guy. It was never that easy to become a millionaire and this guy is acting like anyone could do it back in the day. The facts say otherwise. This dude has been in the top 5% of households in basically every statistical category of education and income his entire life and acts like it was just average, not even that he just got lucky.
    He was the product of a single parent household and was on academic probation twice at UCLA and some other kind of warning a few other times. He graduated with a 2.5 average. Top of food chain? Really? He's real smart, I'll give you that, love his insights, but, his whole point is that he fell into shit that he couldn't today. I know I'd be fucked, with the same attitude and drug habit I had at the time. But, I could've been on the line at the local Ford plant with a union card, making about 30% more than most BAs.

    Here's the whole post: https://www.profgalloway.com/unremarkables

    I totally disagree that his playmates at the Yellowstone Club are all smart, bootstrap types. 60% of wealth in America is inherited, and I predict that will rise to 80-90 % soon.
    Last edited by Benny Profane; 01-06-2020 at 12:38 PM.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  20. #7995
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    He was the product of a single parent household and was on academic probation twice at UCLA and some other kind of warning a few other times. He graduated with a 2.5 average. Top of food chain? Really? He's real smart, I'll give you that, love his insights, but, his whole point is that he fell into shit that he couldn't today. I know I'd be fucked, with the same attitude and drug habit I had at the time. But, I could've been on the line at the local Ford plant with a union card, making about 30% more than most BAs.
    Has anyone ever asked you your GPA when applying for a job? No, they care that you got the job done in the first place and got that piece of paper.

    This guy is full of shit when he says he was unremarkable. Unremarkable would be making 60k a year managing a Safeway in Kansas with a bs state school degree. UCLA has never been equivalent to San Diego State if you know what I mean.

    If MBA's, starting tech companies, and buying million dollar pieces of real estate were so easy, a whole lot more people would have done it than the sub 5% of people in his age group did.

    He didn't fall into anything. It sounds like he is a sharp guy, made the right decisions and put himself in position where a couple lucky breaks make the difference. That is what most successful people do, and are better at than 95% of other people. Aka he is decidedly remarkable, just like everyone else with a similar CV to him.
    Live Free or Die

  21. #7996
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post

    It sounds like he is a sharp guy, made the right decisions and put himself in position where a couple lucky breaks make the difference.

    Precisely. That's his point. But, it's pretty hard to be lucky and take chances if you're starting life with maybe 30,000 in debt, job choices are now limited because monopolies stifle and new growth, and real estate is still at bubble levels.

    Let's do some livin'
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  22. #7997
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Precisely. That's his point. But, it's pretty hard to be lucky and take chances if you're starting life with maybe 30,000 in debt, job choices are now limited because monopolies stifle and new growth, and real estate is still at bubble levels.
    I hate to break it to you Benny, but being smart and setting yourself up for success, and also getting a couple lucky breaks along the way has been the way of the world since the beginning of time. That hasn't changed.

    Think about it, if it was so easy back then to get an MBA and start companies, why did less than 5% of people do it, especially if it was a 50/50 shot at getting in and only cost 1500 bones according to him? There is more to ol Scott's story than he is letting on, because according to him, at least 43% of the country should be as well off as he is.
    Live Free or Die

  23. #7998
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    Duh. Calm down and reread.
    Last edited by Benny Profane; 01-06-2020 at 04:22 PM.

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  24. #7999
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    X

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  25. #8000
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    Sep 2006
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    2,991
    Surprised Seattle isn't on the list. Bunch of slackers...Maybe it changed after 2015?
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

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