Real Estate Crash thread

[AK47bp]

You could park a van painted with a big ad for your store, bar, or restaurant there every day and it might be worth the money, eventually. Front row, center of town, tons and tons of foot traffic and tight restrictions on signage for businesses there.

And could you live in that van?


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[ötzi]

#advanlife

[dunfree]

And could you live in that van?


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q: is it down by the River?

[Benny Profane]

My neighbor here in Carson City just accepted an offer over asking ($780k), one of 2 that came in in the first 24 hours. Is a nice house, one of the nicest on the street, and priced "only" about 220% of what they paid in 2006. Down the street there is another one that sold for $350k in 2018 and for which they are now asking $640k after doing nothing more than a little bad landscaping.

I'm seriously wondering if I should cash out. $700k+ would probably buy a lot in Chile. How much longer can this keep going? Who are these people?

Boomer churn.

Chile? Like, the country?

[ötzi]

$700K US would probably buy a lot OF Chile, never mind a lot in it.

A better idea would be to take the $700K, live cheap in Chile for a couple years, when you're tired of that come back and spend your (still $700K) on real estate here after this all settles down and get a lot more.

[Benny Profane]

Brilliant.

Chile had, like, wage riots recently. But, it can always look down on Argentina, the perpetual loser.

[liv2ski]

Ice, you really think there will be a sizable correction in the next 3 years (over 20%)

[ötzi]

I feel that that is the case. I would say 20% though. I just can't see these values considering what's bound to be a migration back towards the cities and the basic underlying economic reality.

People freaked and grabbed. Now they're having time to think about it. I feel like that initial forward momentum hasn't quite stopped and the reverse momentum hasn't kicked in all the way but it will sort out in the next 2-3 years.

[Benny Profane]

Ice, you really think there will be a sizable correction in the next 3 years (over 20%)

Dude, for an entire year there's been bidding wars over sight unseen. Of course there will be a pause, at least.

[fastfred]

get ready
had a long boring shitty conversation with my money guy last week just had the same unprompted conversation with a fellow contractor this afternoon
if anyone thinks building costs are stupid right now 2022 is going to be a dick punch and a broken nose

shit is hitting the fan
just got a notice that my monthly health ins is going up $110 bucks a month deductible and total payable is way the fuck up
my w/c liability has gone through the roof
material costs can't stop rising, lumber really never came down in price, sure a 2x4 and a sheet of ply is down but steel has gone up 4 times this year, i joists and glu lams an lvls will never come down
labor costs, guys want a boat load to just stand around and play with their phone, productivity is way down
shortage of labor anyways

the ship is about to hit shore
total musical chairs when the music stops some people are going to fall hard

[montanaskier]

Dude, for an entire year there's been bidding wars over sight unseen. Of course there will be a pause, at least.

This is what’s kept us from pulling the trigger on a vacation cabin. The prices are just crazy. I’m old and still believe in value and not overspending. I just don’t know if they are going to come back down some. 1400 sqft 2Br 2ba cabins, some kinda shitty, for 450+. That doesn’t mKe any sense. We want to STR as well and it’s hard to make those #s work with those prices. If we knew the purchase would continue to appreciate at normal levels and the bottom not fall out, we’d buy one but you just never know. Feels like things may slow and we might not have bidding wars but prices aren’t going to slump 10% or more. 🤷🏼♂️


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[ötzi]

the ship is about to hit shore
total musical chairs when the music stops some people are going to fall hard

That's it right there. Somebody's gonna be left holding the bag. Is it you?

edit: like everything else is this over-complicated life, it's full of nuance and guesswork. Don't miss opportunity because I said the sky will eventually fall, please.

[liv2ski]

So if building costs are going up would that not create higher prices? Maybe people pull back on many of the construction projects going on in my hood because of higher costs (I doubt it) but if they did maybe that would help moderate construction costs. So who is going to fall Fred?

[ötzi]

It'll create higher prices until that second when the mass consciousness says wtf. Then it won't.

[liv2ski]

I don't think prices ever correct due to mass consciousness thinking wtf.

[fastfred]

That's it right there. Somebody's gonna be left holding the bag. Is it you?

edit: like everything else is this over-complicated life, it's full of nuance and guesswork. Don't miss opportunity because I said the sky will eventually fall, please.

the only bag I'm going to be holding is a bag of weed
could care less if my house dropped 100k or 200k been in it for almost 20 years

whose going to fall?
I guess all the cheap interest money, stock market money, tech money (most people who have tech money have no common sense) is just going to keep flowing for those people and they will just keep going on up

typical so if your poor your fucked in america getting out of the cycle that five generations have been in is almost impossible but that one person who breaks free from it will be put up on a pedestal so all the rich fuckers can this is american anything is possible if you work hard

one of the rich as fuck big time tech turds is planning on building a house here to outdo all the houses in breck guess his tesla didn't have enough charge in the battery and couldn't make it to aspen or vail so we are doomed

[Core Shot]

I see a slight correction

But labor and material inflation means it’s party time. And not in a good way.

[Benny Profane]

So if building costs are going up would that not create higher prices? Maybe people pull back on many of the construction projects going on in my hood because of higher costs (I doubt it) but if they did maybe that would help moderate construction costs. So who is going to fall Fred?

The problem is, there isn't enough new building. Or, of what there is, it's the wrong stuff. Like this thing that dropped my jaw on a road ride around Saratoga lake today. You have to know what was there before. This thing is obscene.

[Benny Profane]

I don't think prices ever correct due to mass consciousness thinking wtf.

Dude, you live in California. Your state had like three boom and busts before '08. WTF?

[liv2ski]

could care less if my house dropped 100k or 200k been in it for almost 20 years

Last time the market went bonkers in 2006 we got up to $1.2M in value and by 2011 it was closer to $800k, so a nice pullback and like Fred, I could give two fucks if it happened again.

[Benny Profane]

It's become like the stock market. Buy the dips.

[Harry]

There are some rich dentists here

But none of them own an island.

Richard Branson. Epstein wealth. You got this.

Good Luck - agree that now that the potential exists for a hovercraft - I feel the island of Harry will require its own thread////or possibly a sub-tread of the up-state thread.

Buy the island. It’s not an investment. Have some fun. You’ve earned it.

That's awesome Harry! Just build a freaking treehouse cabin if flooding is a concern. I can taste the fish fry and brandy old fashioneds from here.

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Dude! That's incredible. You bought an island. Congrats!

Seriously. I looked back in the thread for details but did't see them - what body of water is it in? How much land is it? How far from shore? What's the closest town? Feel free to point me to a post or tell me to fugoff but I'm curious. Congrats man, the pics look cool.

Ever heard of Isle Royale?

Seriously, this is pretty cool. Move from a Western resort town to the upper Midwest and you, too, can have your own island!

Update on the island.

Everything is going smooth, clock is ticking toward closing, once the title company gets the numbers together we can move onto the money phase.

A lot of maggots have PM/text me about details, so I think once the deal is complete I will make a separate thread that I will update throughout the years as I make improvements.

The island is 7 acres, plus a small lot on the shore to have access. The lake it is on is part of a chain of six lakes connected by channels. My mom has a condo on one lake, my grampa’s cabin is on another, and my island on yet another. But easy to boat around to all of them. Most of the lakes have bars with docks, so pontoon boat booze cruises are a popular pastime. Fishing is fantastic on all the lakes in the chain.

Island is a diamond in the rough. No buildings or improvements on it, but it is zoned Residential. It has lots of brush and deadfall that need to be cleared. Initial plan is to put in a dock, and clear enough space for an off-grid glamping setup. Eventually a small cabin.

I can’t believe how lucky I am. I have known about this island since I was a little kid. Never in a million years did I think I would actually own it.




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[Bunion 2020]

Fucking Aye Harry, positive thoughts all the way.

[Toadman]

Harry, build a lighthouse on the island. Then rent it out. For some crazy reason, people like to stay in lighthouses.

[Ski220]

I can’t believe how lucky I am. I have known about this island since I was a little kid. Never in a million years did I think I would actually own it.




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.

Big props Harry.

How many of us can live their boyhood dreams ?