Real Estate Crash thread

[CascadeLuke]

Spring is the hottest season here as well. Picks up late January. It was the most competitive I’ve seen in years heading into this virus.. While my post was about the amazement of how many homes are selling via virtual marketing and while so many predicting doom & gloom. But true many are coming to market as well, hard to say how much was scheduled to anyway.
I think some of the population now may value a proper home more after being quarantined. In hot cities with employers the depreciation pain will be less.

[Ted Striker]

Yeah, she follows that with they were probably already in the pipeline, but she's still surprised more of them aren't cancelled due to uncertainty about, well, pretty much everything.

I didn't see any stimulus money earmarked for mortgage liquidity.

[4matic]

I didn't see any stimulus money earmarked for mortgage liquidity.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...ule-032720.pdf

[Ted Striker]

That's good because there are going to be a lot of missed payments.

[4matic]

That's good because there are going to be a lot of missed payments.

That's up to the mortgage holder. Most banks have front run delays. The Fed purchases are for liquidity which you mentioned so mortgage loans are available.

[liv2ski]

Doing a refi for a guy now and he calls me to ask if he can stop making his mortgage payments as his wife is laid off. I said hell no and also mentioned to him he must make his 1st mortgage payment on the refi or the lender can ask me to buy back the loan to which he agreed to do. I hope he doesn't fuck me up.

[CascadeLuke]

I fear some will fall into the trap of missing a payment then eventually fall behind under the guise its acceptable based off things they’ve heard. No doubt people are strapped but I’d keep that payment history straight. Call me a sceptic but I don’t trust the roll out and follow through of this admin.

[mattig]

My mortgage guy said he expects 30 year rates to drop below 3 again, but it might be a little bit.

I locked 2.875 yesterday, but circumstances were somewhat special.

I do think we will see rates back into the 2's. The only risk to that outlook is how obvious it is based on current fundamentals.

[mattig]

Doing a refi for a guy now and he calls me to ask if he can stop making his mortgage payments as his wife is laid off. I said hell no and also mentioned to him he must make his 1st mortgage payment on the refi or the lender can ask me to buy back the loan to which he agreed to do. I hope he doesn't fuck me up.

You should come hang out on my site for a few days to hear some of the stories. The forbearance onslaught is definitely already a mess. The good news is that I can almost guarantee you that if your funded clients get their payment instructions directly from the servicer, there's no EPD issue for you. And if you hear about that happening, let me know. Massive class action lawsuit risk on an open and shut case. Bottom line have them call servicer and follow their instructions. Servicer can't say no, but by going through their steps, EPDs will be protected.

[mattig]

I fear some will fall into the trap of missing a payment then eventually fall behind under the guise its acceptable based off things they’ve heard. No doubt people are strapped but I’d keep that payment history straight. Call me a sceptic but I don’t trust the roll out and follow through of this admin.

Here's the bigger issue: a shitload of people with jobs are going to do this just because nothing prevents them from skipping 6 payments. And there's an equally big shitload of unintentional consequences for them and the mortgage system as a result. People are still trying to unfuck their credit from hurricane-related forbearances.

Also, as illogical as it sounds, the current protocol for most lenders is to treat missed payments as a balloon. That's clearly not fucking happening for most Americans. So then they have to refi or modify. Rate could be higher, and it could be harder to remove from credit depending on the servicer.

[4matic]

I do think we will see rates back into the 2's..

What is a representative current rollover adjustment rate on a 5/5 arm fixed at 2.5?

[Ted Striker]

That's up to the mortgage holder. Most banks have front run delays. The Fed purchases are for liquidity which you mentioned so mortgage loans are available.

I get it. Was just saying that without the ability to write new loans, and potential defaults looming, it's a snake eating its own tail.

[volklpowdermaniac]

Happy to have a new gig in healthcare, psyched to be moving back west, but also scared shitless of the Seattle housing market. Read all the pages since the covid started, give me the news: how do you foresee this affecting the long term rental market in the PNW. Looking for something that starts are 6/1 (1-3 BR, 1-2 BA, with a yard for the pup, within 15-20 minute drive of Pill Hill- you know, just in case you got something ��)

[mattig]

What is a representative current rollover adjustment rate on a 5/5 arm fixed at 2.5?

A) I don't know what you're asking
B) 7/1 arms are the thing now.

Are you asking how much a 5yr arm is adjusting after the first 5 years? Depends on the index, but if LIBOR for instance, just today's mark minus the 5yr ago mark.

[Kevo]

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business...s-15163143.php

[liv2ski]

I hope a 90 day mortgage forbearance works and these people don't lose their homes. God, I hope stuff is close to normal by June, but who knows?

[Stu Gotz]

I hope a 90 day mortgage forbearance works and these people don't lose their homes. God, I hope stuff is close to normal by June, but who knows?

All these mortgage payment streams have been sliced and diced to within an inch of their lives. The complexity in unraveling the securitization to help homeowners will be mind boggling.

[Skidog]

Thankfully we aren't planning on moving and our home is very right side up. Very doubtful this property will ever drop below what i owe.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using TGR Forums mobile app

[liv2ski]

^^^Right. Our place is paid off and worth a bunch. I would welcome values crashing 50% like 08, so my kids could all buy at more realistic prices.

[VTeton]

I wouldnt say no to a crash, pick up some income property and or a retirement property.

[rideit]

And you better have the whole nut in cash, no one is going to lend anything at reasonable rates, IMO.

[4matic]

Sell side mortgage bond brokers asking for Fed help with margin calls.

[Tips^Up]

Say I have a stable job, not affected by the virus. And a mortgage. And an appetite for risk. Can anyone for no reason, stop paying their mortgage for 3 months? Put it all on black, hope the bet pays off?

Actually, the plan would be to skip mortgage payment for 3 months, put it into VTSAX while stocks are on sale, then pay off the balloon in 3 months? I have the payments saved up in my emergency fund (~6 months of living expenses held in savings), this could be an opportune time to flow more money into equities?

[XXX-er]

its tempting to follow the market down and buy another rental or sft

but on the other hand i don't think i need to

we will see how it al shakes out

[Kevo]

Say I have a stable job, not affected by the virus. And a mortgage. And an appetite for risk. Can anyone for no reason, stop paying their mortgage for 3 months? Put it all on black, hope the bet pays off?

Actually, the plan would be to skip mortgage payment for 3 months, put it into VTSAX while stocks are on sale, then pay off the balloon in 3 months? I have the payments saved up in my emergency fund (~6 months of living expenses held in savings), this could be an opportune time to flow more money into equities?

You're asking if it is worth betting your house on timing the stock market? Why not buy a 3X leveraged ETF if you're so confident stocks are going to rebound? I mean, what could go wrong?