Real Estate Crash thread

[byates1]

To be fair all winter late fall for me.

The summer hong show prob brings a much higher level of scrutiny. Midweek January, not so much.

[rideit]

Midweek January they just want you gone for plowing.

[muted reborn]

Midweek January they just want you gone for plowing.

Not if you tell them you are a fry cook working in town and the sheriff told you it's OK to live there. Then you can stay there all winter!

[neckdeep]

But only if you are "upscale" and "do private work for people of means."

Byates, the go-anywhere, sleep-anywhere, shit-anywhere van life gigilo for the rich and famous. Trading BJs for free parking somewhere in a ski town near you!

[byates1]

Don't forget the part where I stretch your wife's throat out while you're at work grinding away to pay for all the dumb shit she has to have..

[muted reborn]

Don't forget the part where I stretch your wife's throat out while you're at work grinding away to pay for all the dumb shit she has to have..

Yep, I bet there is women constantly knocking on your door to get stretched in your van - parked at a highway pullout.

[altasnob]

Not all places on earth are full of NIMBYs. Nanchang, China, has built so many apartments recently that nearly 20% of the homes there sit vacant. I bet they don't have a homeless or worker housing problem. And you don't need to squat in the woods in a van to get by:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/b...-nanchang.html

[yeahman]

In China NIMBYS get put in re-education camps.

[byates1]

We can send neck deep over there to give it a look...

[mcphee]

Don't forget the part where I stretch your wife's throat out while you're at work grinding away to pay for all the dumb shit she has to have..

[oldnew_guy]

https://www.hcn.org/articles/south-e...loved-to-death

"
Whether in the red-rock canyons of Utah or the high country of the Rockies, this is a familiar cycle for communities near desirable natural areas in the Western U.S. In recent years, the pandemic-inspired movement of well-to-do remote workers has exacerbated this trend. A new report from Headwaters Economics, a Montana-based research nonprofit, dubs this pattern the “amenity trap,” meaning “the paradox of a place with natural attractions that make it a great place to live but also threaten it with being ‘loved to death.’”
Using local data and specific case studies, the report breaks down the amenity trap into a pressing few categories, including housing, infrastructure and natural disasters. It also discusses policies that have successfully addressed these problems in some of the West’s most coveted destinations."

[Vt-Freeheel]

Couple of nice places in Woodstock VT

Woodstock/9-School-St-05091

No pics of the house must need work

Woodstock/234-Randall-Rd-05091

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

That barn ain't bad but I just couldn't deal with the tourists.

[rideit]

This heart-warming story has it all.
Kind of broke, attractive redhead? Check
Resourceful, tasteful renovation? Check
Gig worker, including Online Dominatrix? Check


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/03/36-y...ream-home.html

[rideit]

This local cartoon is absolutely spot-on.

[liv2ski]

Interesting that the Texas governor has proposed to eliminate property taxes. They are pricey there so how does he replace the lost revenue?

[Danno]

You seem to be under the mistaken assumption that he actually cares about governance.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Interesting that the Texas governor has proposed to eliminate property taxes. They are pricey there so how does he replace the lost revenue?

Abbott want to Californicate Texass.

Love 'em or hate 'em, property taxes are the most stable source of tax income. When you cut or eliminate that source, you have to make it up with sales taxes and user fees which result in boom or bust cycles which has plagued California for decades post prop-13.

[skaredshtles]

Interesting that the Texas governor has proposed to eliminate property taxes. They are pricey there so how does he replace the lost revenue?

Don't worry - it'll trickle down.

[CarlMega]

Interesting that the Texas governor has proposed to eliminate property taxes. They are pricey there so how does he replace the lost revenue?

In a word: volume.

[californiagrown]

RE: converting empty high rise office towers to residential. Was just talking to a big developer/architect that recently looked into doing that in Seattle for one of their buildings- they said it made more financial sense for them to sit on a totally empty building for 5years and bet on office work coming back than it would for them to try and convert large portions of it to residential. So, it doesnt sound like residential renovations will be catching on in the near future. 10-20 years down the road, maybe?

[altasnob]

The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings

Commercial real estate is losing value fast.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ffices/674310/

some landlords are threatening to “give the keys back to the bank.” Over the past few months, the property giants RXR, Columbia Property Trust, Brookfield Asset Management, and others have collectively defaulted on billions in commercial-property loans. Such defaults are partly an indication of real struggles and partly a game of chicken. Most commercial loans were issued before the pandemic, when offices were full and interest rates were low.

The current landscape is drastically different: high vacancy rates, doubled interest rates, and nearly $1.5 trillion in loans due for repayment by 2025. By defaulting now, landlords leverage their remaining influence to advocate for loan extensions or a bailout. As John Maynard Keynes observed, when you owe your banker $1,000, you are at his mercy, but when you owe him $1 million, “the position is reversed.”

Property taxes underpin city budgets. In New York City, such taxes generate approximately 40 percent of revenue. Commercial property—mostly offices—contributes about 40 percent of these taxes, or 16 percent of the city’s total tax revenue.

[Kevo]

It will be interesting to see the fallout from CRE.

I'd be willing to bet there will be a government bailout.

[I Skied Bandini Mountain]

Back in 2012 we were barely able to con a mortgage company into giving us a loan to buy our present home for a ridiculously low price. Not long after I was doing some work in the house of the owner to the company I was then working for, old guy, very successful. We got to talking and he asked how the family was and I told him about buying the house and he was genuinely excited for us and we started chatting about real estate. At one point I made the comment that someone with cash could make a lot of money in residential real estate at that time and his eyes grew big and he nodded "ohhh yeah".

I wonder if it's going to be like that for commercial RE in a couple few years. My wife says no. I say yes.

[Dantheman]

I wonder if it's going to be like that for commercial RE in a couple few years. My wife says no. I say yes.

Martha says "yes": https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/06/busin...ork/index.html