Real Estate Crash thread

[skaredshtles]

<snip> that can then be packaged up as STR mortgage backed securities.

[Core Shot]

Most of the time no. You can only use rental income if you already have rentals and have a history of it shown on your taxes. In that case the lender can look at it and say "yes, you know what you're doing" and count part of it (I think it's 70%).

Yep. If it’s a history of rental, they give you 70% credit

[J. Barron DeJong]

Obviously there’s reason to be skeptical that they’re being responsible, but plain Jane mortgage backed securities weren’t the issue last time.

It’s that they sliced and diced them to obscure the risk - selling ‘low risk’ tranches of pools made entirely of high risk mortgages.

Oh, and then they started selling ‘synthetic CDOs’, which weren’t backed by any actual mortgages, but were just bets on how the mortgages other people owned were going to perform. So just leveraging the bets.

[JimmyCarter]

https://www.boston.com/news/the-bost...1=hp_secondary
On the one hand, I hate Portnoy.

On the other, I love how much this likely infuriates the average blue blood Nantucket homeowner.

[skaredshtles]

Obviously there’s reason to be skeptical that they’re being responsible

That's why I'm eating the popcorn.

[J. Barron DeJong]

That's why I'm eating the popcorn.

Yeah, fair enough.

[Foggy_Goggles]

My opinion is that, while JBD is correct. The "low risk" part is a bit more complicated. All the sharps, talking heads, bank and broker dealers knew the collateral was dog shit.

The rating agencies went along for the ride to delay the inevitable.

So who's blowing smoke up who's backside and what isn't exactly as it seems? I'm not sure what the CMBS and RMBS guys are saying right now.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

[californiagrown]

https://www.boston.com/news/the-bost...1=hp_secondary
On the one hand, I hate Portnoy.

On the other, I love how much this likely infuriates the average blue blood Nantucket homeowner.

I have lived adjacent to some exceptionally wealthy areas and typically do not bat an eye at $7mil homes on 1/4acre with no view. Even i am having trouble making sense of how this house on 1.2 acres could be $42mil.

[J. Barron DeJong]

My opinion is that, while JBD is correct. The "low risk" part is a bit more complicated. All the sharps, talking heads, bank and broker dealers knew the collateral was dog shit.

The rating agencies went along for the ride to delay the inevitable.

So who's blowing smoke up who's backside and what isn't exactly as it seems? I'm not sure what the CMBS and RMBS guys are saying right now.

Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse

From what I understood at the time, they mostly knew the collateral was shit, but the way it was structured was supposed to create some ‘low risk’ and some ‘high risk’ securities from the shit. The ratings agencies went along with the math, cause they wanted business.

But did the buyers of the low risk securities know that they were actually shit? I think a lot of them just relied on the ratings.

But another confounding issue was that the banks issuing these shit securities held onto a bunch of them themselves.

[AdironRider]

https://www.boston.com/news/the-bost...1=hp_secondary
On the one hand, I hate Portnoy.

On the other, I love how much this likely infuriates the average blue blood Nantucket homeowner.

My reaction as well. Its shit like this why a certain type of person fucking loves the guy.

I did love his recent call out of the writer who was putting out a hit piece and tried to strong arm his advertisers, like they didn't already know exactly what they were getting in the first place.

[byates1]

Disclaimer - I know nothing

Sig worthy

[fastfred]

https://www.denverpost.com/2023/10/0...d-westminster/


“Wouldn’t it be better to revitalize existing space in the city rather than taking pristine farmland to put in commercial space we can’t fill now?” Ray said. “It’s a treasure to have a working farm in an urban area — if they allow this to happen, this will be another faceless suburb with a view of nothing.”


the karens nimbys and boomers have been hard at work but in the end they lost

[Core Shot]

I have lived adjacent to some exceptionally wealthy areas and typically do not bat an eye at $7mil homes on 1/4acre with no view. Even i am having trouble making sense of how this house on 1.2 acres could be $42mil.

It’s not.
Unless you’re on a barstool

[S_jenks]

I just want this housing market to burn soooo bad.

[neufox47]

I have lived adjacent to some exceptionally wealthy areas and typically do not bat an eye at $7mil homes on 1/4acre with no view. Even i am having trouble making sense of how this house on 1.2 acres could be $42mil.

Apparently the land went for $13 million back in 2016. I wonder how long until Portnoy is bankrupt with his house buying, gambling and private jet lifestyle. Though he did just buy back the rest of Barstool for $1.

[schuss]

Obviously there’s reason to be skeptical that they’re being responsible, but plain Jane mortgage backed securities weren’t the issue last time.

It’s that they sliced and diced them to obscure the risk - selling ‘low risk’ tranches of pools made entirely of high risk mortgages.

Oh, and then they started selling ‘synthetic CDOs’, which weren’t backed by any actual mortgages, but were just bets on how the mortgages other people owned were going to perform. So just leveraging the bets.

While I imagine some people will take a bath on this stuff, it's likely not even a fraction as large as the last time. That said, hopefully the crashing returns on stuff like that will make people think twice.

[Toadman]

I have lived adjacent to some exceptionally wealthy areas and typically do not bat an eye at $7mil homes on 1/4acre with no view. Even i am having trouble making sense of how this house on 1.2 acres could be $42mil.

Nice place. One thing they aren't building more of, is land on Nantucket. Fond memories of Nantucket. If I had the cash, I'd buy a place on that island so I could fly in on my private jet for a few weeks a year.

[Toadman]

I'm disappointed that Montucky didn't inform us of this AAA investment opportunity. Missed a golden chance for the TGR collective to buy a giant house on the cheap, do a half-assed job of finishing it, and have a shared ski/party palace that pisses off all the multimillionaire neighbors for the foreseeable future. MontuckyFried, next time you have to let us know!



What do you think it would be on the other side of the street with no river frontage? Under $1m? My sister is in Bend now and I've been visiting enough to get the idea that Bend seems to be headed the same way as Aspen. I walked past this listing last week that's even crazier than the first one: https://www.redfin.com/OR/Bend/615-N...home/112330773

Here's the answer to your question, Dan. Just a few blocks form the river.- https://www.redfin.com/OR/Bend/304-N...5fbnVtYmVyPTA=

[JimmyCarter]

Nantucket is one of the last places good, god-fearing wealthy white folk can go to escape the poors and the minorities!

[Core Shot]

Nantucket is one of the last places good, god-fearing wealthy white folk can go to escape the poors and the minorities!

Well. There’s always MV. No migrants allowed.

[ötzi]

^^ obviously that’s complete bs and you know it, so why say it? Those people have been treated very well by all reports.

[AdironRider]

If by treated very well you mean told to GTFO and shipped out within 48 hours.

[byates1]

Lol

[Core Shot]

If by treated very well you mean told to GTFO and shipped out within 48 hours.

Yep. Camp Otis is awesome. But no gelato

[lowsparkco]

Here's the answer to your question, Dan. Just a few blocks form the river.- https://www.redfin.com/OR/Bend/304-N...5fbnVtYmVyPTA=

You fellas are confusing asking price for fair market value. There’s a reason we compare properties that have sold when creating a comparative market analysis for clients.

If you’re really intrigued send me a PM and I will send you credentials for the actual MLS data, not the syndication. I think you can limit your search to sold listings although I’ve never tried it from the consumer side.

A decent lot in Bend, downtown within a few blocks of the river runs about $600k to $650k. The structure will dictate the rest. Those two houses aren’t exactly apples to apples. Luckily, unlike Assspen, our downtown district isn’t surrounded by 14’ers, that’s why we sit in traffic for hours to ski a windy pimple.