Real Estate Crash thread

[Yukonrider]

Simply increasing wages won't make a lick of difference. You'll still have 10 people trying to buy the same house, just now the offers will be higher.

[dunfree]

But the government can't snap their fingers and make wages go up. The only thing the government can do in this is cut out the red tape and tell NIMBY's to eat a dick so we can bring down new construction costs, and incentivize new development (preferably centrally located, small, dense, development that will actually have an affect on supply).

You paid any ducking attention to the supply chain problems? Building out of it ain’t gonna happen for years. Of course not all of those 9 million investor homes aren’t STR, but you’d have to come up with a definition of what a STR is, the you can answer “how many are there”. Seasonal rentals count as STR to some. But there’s estimates fo between 1-3 million, which old be a lot of supply.

and hotels are doing worse than they were before the pandemic, because business travel is still largely in the shitter.

[Kevo]

Certainly wages for local government employees could go up, no?

I'd support doubling my property tax if it would mean local teachers and public servants got a 100% pay increase. Unfortunately nothing like that would be politically tenable where I live.

[Ted Striker]

Simply increasing wages won't make a lick of difference. You'll still have 10 people trying to buy the same house, just now the offers will be higher.

That was in reference to people complaining about the lack of service industry, lifties, etc.

[4matic]

Certainly wages for local government employees could go up, no?

I'd support doubling my property tax if it would mean local teachers and public servants got a 100% pay increase. Unfortunately nothing like that would be politically tenable where I live.

My buddy that coaches community college swimming had total compensation of $196k in 2020 and will retire with $10k a month income and medicare deductible paid. Teachers and government employees in California are well compensated and that mantra of unappreciated should change..at least in California.

[dan_pdx]

A foreign buyer bought the property as an investment, and intentionally left it empty.

I wish that wasn't a profitable play

And the agent deserves an honorable mention in the breathless bullshit dept.

Amen

[4matic]

My mortgage would be costing me $300+ more a month than when I got it last summer.

[fatnslow]

My buddy that coaches community college swimming had total compensation of $196k in 2020 and will retire with $10k a month income and medicare deductible paid. Teachers and government employees in California are well compensated and that mantra of unappreciated should change..at least in California.

Calpers is legit if you were able to get in about 30 years ago.

[Kevo]

My buddy that coaches community college swimming had total compensation of $196k in 2020 and will retire with $10k a month income and medicare deductible paid. Teachers and government employees in California are well compensated and that mantra of unappreciated should change..at least in California.

Good for California, I guess.

The exact opposite is true here in ID.

[altasnob]

Where's Benny to come in and claim that the high prices in the Mountain West is because of the high compensation of California public employees? They're buying all our homes with their fat pensions!

[Benny Profane]

Where's Benny to come in and claim that the high prices in the Mountain West is because of the high compensation of California public employees? They're buying all our homes with their fat pensions!

And the horribly inflated cash value of their California home. A million bucks goes far in Boise.

[liv2ski]

Where's Benny to come in and claim that the high prices in the Mountain West is because of the high compensation of California public employees? They're buying all our homes with their fat pensions!

As a hack from CA, I can assure you I have no desire to live in I Da Hoe. Italy maybe, but that is because it is like a very cool CA.

[dan_pdx]

Seems like there's an opportunity for other countries to woo our wealthy Calpers retirees and other trust fund dentist types. Old houses in Japan are available for a song, tens of thousands and up. I've seen decent houses in Hokkaido near skiing under $200k. And I keep seeing articles about how rural European towns are struggling to keep up their populations.

No idea if it'll pan out, but I've been chatting with some friends about each of us buying a house somewhere cool - guy who married a Spanish woman can build a house on his inlaws property in Spain, etc. and then house swapping every 3-4 months or so. I mean, while a $600k teardown in Bellingham seems pretty epic, living near the beach in Spain might not be too bad either.

[Toadman]

uhm... the government can snap their fingers and make wages go up, but they won't.

But it's going to happen either way. If you aren't willing to pay $20/hr in this town you won't get any applicants.

We definitely fell way behind on building because money dried up after the financial meltdown, and I agree that incentivizing density/disincentivizing sprawl would be the smart thing, but this country is so "I got mine so fuck you" I don't see any meaningful change on that front. Especially where the wealthy control the local government.

It's the reverse situation where the rich developers control the local gov't. Then it's urban sprawl and rezoning to accommodate the builders. I guess that's a good thing, except all the developers are doing is building million dollar homes to maximize profits. I mean it's not cheap when you have to pay a general laborer $26/hr and the trades pros get 5 times that. Not that I would know anything about that....

[Toadman]

Seems like there's an opportunity for other countries to woo our wealthy Calpers retirees and other trust fund dentist types. Old houses in Japan are available for a song, tens of thousands and up. I've seen decent houses in Hokkaido near skiing under $200k. And I keep seeing articles about how rural European towns are struggling to keep up their populations.

No idea if it'll pan out, but I've been chatting with some friends about each of us buying a house somewhere cool - guy who married a Spanish woman can build a house on his inlaws property in Spain, etc. and then house swapping every 3-4 months or so. I mean, while a $600k teardown in Bellingham seems pretty epic, living near the beach in Spain might not be too bad either.

Well, if you are young (under 40), then Italy is calling.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/i...cmd/index.html

[dan_pdx]

Well, if you are young (under 40), then Italy is calling.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/i...cmd/index.html

Would be pretty stoked to open a MTB / road bike outfitter / guide service in Italy, but I'm too damn old for this program

[Ted Striker]

It's the reverse situation where the rich developers control the local gov't. Then it's urban sprawl and rezoning to accommodate the builders.

Oh, I'm aware. But this is the wishful thinking thread!

[Benny Profane]

Well, if you are young (under 40), then Italy is calling.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/i...cmd/index.html

Generally speaking, if you have some reasonable money, you can live comfortably there. Marry in, and then, gold. Euro citizen, and free health care.

[ötzi]

Word on the street is Benny will consider offers.

[Benny Profane]

Especially if she makes fresh pasta.

[skifishbum]

Word on the street is Benny will consider offers.

id try the 6er and sum weeds route first
but what do i know im still a quarter century into makin the 1st one work

[snapt]

Certainly wages for local government employees could go up, no?

I'd support doubling my property tax if it would mean local teachers and public servants got a 100% pay increase. Unfortunately nothing like that would be politically tenable where I live.

ID has real strict laws about Government budgets increasing per year, usually capped at 3%. Thus to give COLA's just at the rate of inflation they have to rob from elsewhere in the budget. It's why cities in the treasure valley put building moratoriums into place during the height of the pandemic, population growth was insane but with limitations on budget growth services can't come close to keeping up.

[Benny Profane]

ID has real strict laws about Government budgets increasing per year, usually capped at 3%. Thus to give COLA's just at the rate of inflation they have to rob from elsewhere in the budget. It's why cities in the treasure valley put building moratoriums into place during the height of the pandemic, population growth was insane but with limitations on budget growth services can't come close to keeping up.

And, ironically, it's the taxpayers of coastal states and cities that are funding the incredible inflation of housing in low tax resort states. Not only relatively wealthy California public workers with COLA enhanced pensions at an early age and inflated cash outs from expensive RE markets, but Illinois and NY metro cops, fireman, and public funded cube dwellers. I'm convinced that's why Florida RE is so pricey, too.

https://www.nj.com/data/2022/01/the-...-policing.html

[Mazderati]

A home I was eyeing even before it went up for sale recently closed at 200k over ask. Great neighborhood, great yard, and great bones but dated. Brutal market out there for buyers.

[Benny Profane]

Where?