Real Estate Crash thread

[papapoopski]

This is interesting. Rental market exploding in tourist heavy towns. AirBnB bubble pops.

https://twitter.com/DSAEastBay/statu...19016554876928

I'm seeing this near me in a touristy town. NYC families going north, trying to escape. A friend of mine was offered "whatever amount of money she wants" to stay indefinitely in her Airbnb. Another wealthy family rented out a private wedding venue. They are a family of 5 staying on about 100 acres for $7k per week.

[VTeton]

I got an inquiry from a family in Westchester NY looking to rent our summer rental starting now for as long as I'd rent it to em 8 weeks + we declined it.

[rideit]

Why?

[Core Shot]

I got an inquiry from a family in Westchester NY looking to rent our summer rental starting now for as long as I'd rent it to em 8 weeks + we declined it.

Are you nucking futs?

You can always spend one weeks rent on bleaching and disinfecting and hazmat suits.

Or are you thinking of bugging out yourself?

[Stu Gotz]

This will get interesting for real estate as suburban/rural areas get cleaned up but urban areas continue to flare up over the next 6-12 months.

[papapoopski]

I got an inquiry from a family in Westchester NY looking to rent our summer rental starting now for as long as I'd rent it to em 8 weeks + we declined it.

Yeah curious why you wouldn't rent it? Collect that cash while you can.

[papapoopski]

It's only going to get worse

[Toadman]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-ho...000459054.html

They will probably survive with some federal financial assistance. But I wonder how long it will be before they are able to charge the kind of prices needed to cover the costs?

Property managers who list accommodations on Airbnb are upset that the company overrode their policies in response to the coronavirus epidemic and allowed travelers to cancel their reservations and get full refunds.

They're unhappy they're having to bear the vast majority of the cost of the refunds, even though they didn't have a say in the decision.

Many say their business have been hit hard by the change Airbnb made; some say they can only last a few months without the money they make from Airbnb, because it represents the bulk of their income.

For many property managers, the money they make from the service goes to pay mortgages, utility bills, maintenance.

[liv2ski]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-ho...000459054.html

They will probably survive with some federal financial assistance. But I wonder how long it will be before they are able to charge the kind of prices needed to cover the costs?

Property managers who list accommodations on Airbnb are upset that the company overrode their policies in response to the coronavirus epidemic and allowed travelers to cancel their reservations and get full refunds.

They're unhappy they're having to bear the vast majority of the cost of the refunds, even though they didn't have a say in the decision.

Many say their business have been hit hard by the change Airbnb made; some say they can only last a few months without the money they make from Airbnb, because it represents the bulk of their income.

For many property managers, the money they make from the service goes to pay mortgages, utility bills, maintenance.

From what I have read, the bailout bills will back stop mortgages for 12 months, so likely not a big RE implosion of foreclosures like 2009.

[LeeLau]

From what I have read, the bailout bills will back stop mortgages for 12 months, so likely not a big RE implosion of foreclosures like 2009.

Does it extend to residential mortgages?

[4matic]

This will get interesting for real estate as suburban/rural areas get cleaned up but urban areas continue to flare up over the next 6-12 months.

Suburban RE will regain traction with wfh and aversion to close contact?

[dunfree]

Suburban RE will regain traction with wfh and aversion to close contact?

Suburbs just as at risk from c-19 so far (new Rochelle, Westport, etc). It’s a lifestyle thing. You are wealthy, interact with lots of people, doesn’t matter where you are (see: ski country c-19 cases)

[Benny Profane]

Suburbs just as at risk from c-19 so far (new Rochelle, etc).

New Rochelle is an old school suburb from the first half of the twentieth century. In other parts of the country, it would be considered a small city. Its compact, crowded, and has a commuter train line running right through it that is almost as crowded and busy as some NYC subway lines.

[liv2ski]

Does it extend to residential mortgages?

Lee, what I read was for residential RE, not commercial.

[Benny Profane]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-ho...000459054.html

They will probably survive with some federal financial assistance. But I wonder how long it will be before they are able to charge the kind of prices needed to cover the costs?

Property managers who list accommodations on Airbnb are upset that the company overrode their policies in response to the coronavirus epidemic and allowed travelers to cancel their reservations and get full refunds.

They're unhappy they're having to bear the vast majority of the cost of the refunds, even though they didn't have a say in the decision.

Many say their business have been hit hard by the change Airbnb made; some say they can only last a few months without the money they make from Airbnb, because it represents the bulk of their income.

For many property managers, the money they make from the service goes to pay mortgages, utility bills, maintenance.

Hey, wait. I thought that the argument that AirBnB used at countless town hall meetings and in their P.R. commercials is that it's a service to help homeowners get by by sharing a second bedroom and raising a little cash that way. They have used that for years to get by regulations and avoid taxes that hotels pay. Now all of a sudden it's a large profit making business that will need a bailout? Really? Or, are we just bailing out the unicorn hunting private investors before the IPO happens and they can walk away with billions? Ya think? For fucks sake. What's next, WeWork getting saved?

Btw, look at the list of investors in Airbnb before you go any further. Chances are Bezos is one. He's had his fingers in a lot of these "startups". Yeah, that would be cool. Bailing out Bezos.

[VTeton]

Yeah curious why you wouldn't rent it? Collect that cash while you can.

We live in a more densely populated area and I'd rather have the option to go down there or have family use it if need be. I was willing to consider it but other family members less keen on the idea.

[LeeLau]

Lee, what I read was for residential RE, not commercial.

Thanks! It'll be good for individual homeowners to get somewhat of a helping hand

[dunfree]

New Rochelle is an old school suburb from the first half of the twentieth century. In other parts of the country, it would be considered a small city. Its compact, crowded, and has a commuter train line running right through it that is almost as crowded and busy as some NYC subway lines.

So what about the west coast suburbs? Snohomish co, Santa Clara co, etc? Atlanta suburbs growing fast now. Not buying the direct risk.

more the other side - with no bars, restaurants, clubs, why live in the city?

[Name Redacted]

Prices don't seem to be taking a dive in the mountains around here (Eagle/Summit) yet. Rich folks will just wait to get in on a good deal as soon as people who can't spring for their 2nd mortgage because no matter what the economy, people still want to live here.

https://www.westword.com/news/covid-...o4AilWzYPcE8Zc

[Benny Profane]

So what about the west coast suburbs? Snohomish co, Santa Clara co, etc? Atlanta suburbs growing fast now. Not buying the direct risk.

more the other side - with no bars, restaurants, clubs, why live in the city?

Well, if you lived on the Upper West Side, you can walk to work.

[Benny Profane]

Prices don't seem to be taking a dive in the mountains around here (Eagle/Summit) yet. Rich folks will just wait to get in on a good deal as soon as people who can't spring for their 2nd mortgage because no matter what the economy, people still want to live here.

https://www.westword.com/news/covid-...o4AilWzYPcE8Zc

"Every rich guy on the planet wants a good deal," Strahan points out. "So they'll say to me, 'When there's a market downturn, let me know. I'm interested in buying in distress.' But talk is cheap. You can say that when the world is glued together. But when the stock market is going through the floor, you've got to have a lot of conviction, because many people will say, 'It sounded good at the time, but now I'm hunkering down and heading to safety.'"

That is my screenwriters rap from my colorado ski town real estate salesman character, after he blew about ten lines and a drank a few Tito's martinis.

[fastfred]

"

That is my screenwriters rap from my colorado ski town real estate salesman character, after he blew about ten lines and a drank a few Tito's martinis.

keeping it real benny nice work
too bad your stuck at home and I couldn't give you the reality tour this spring
I"m sure there are a few second homeowners hiding out in there house in mountain star shopping next to the mexicans and white trash at walmart this week

[Shredhead]

I’d basically agree with that.

But people with really deep pockets, due tend to buy in down turns.
Lots of people think they’re rich, until the shit hits the fan.

[4matic]

Wealthy don't have that much stock. They don't need it. Old rubes are the ones getting hurt badly:

August 2019

Members of TIGER 21, an investment club for high-net-worth individuals, reduced their stock allocation to 21% from 22% during the second quarter, according to the group’s quarterly report.

TIGER 21, a group of about 700 people with at least $10 million to invest, stands for The Investment Group for Enhanced Results in the 21st Century.

“They are concerned about the fact that the markets were priced to perfection; they thought they reached real highs,” said Michael Sonnenfeldt, founder of TIGER 21.

[4matic]

December 2019:

Low interest rates have made real estate more attractive, according to Michael Sonnenfeldt, founder of TIGER 21.

“Members took some of the low-hanging fruit in the frothiest markets off the table, but they hung onto their core holdings,” he said. “You get the benefit of recurring rent income and you can project into the future.”

Investors have been paying attention to the uncertainty on Capitol Hill, and they have bulked up their cash cushions to protect themselves.