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  1. #18676
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    Oct 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foggy_Goggles View Post
    Underestimated strategy. Cap gains are probably never going to be lower in our lives. 1031 is just tax deferment. If you can afford it, take the step up in basis and start over. Overly simplified but, it is what I'm considering. Exceptions would include if you planned to either move into your rental one day or figure out a reason to not sell it from income ever. There are also some ways to just park the money on dirt and not pay taxes but you gotta hustle to find some property associated income to make it legal. Good problems to have.
    Yeah, I think that we will end up with at least a partial 1031. I have a few leads on properties that aren’t going on the market, one is commercial.

    Or maybe we just blow it all on Sprinter vans, motorized toys, or invest in some dogecoins. I don’t know yet. Haha.
    Last edited by Name Redacted; 10-16-2021 at 03:46 PM.

  2. #18677
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    Sep 2006
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    It's already tough out there trying to compete with Boomers and older Gen X'ers with cash. Back in the day you just how to compete with your fellow citizens, now you have to bid against the man.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillo...160557830.html

    Zillow, which acquired more than 3,800 homes in the second quarter, will stop pursuing new purchases for the remainder of the year as it works through a backlog of properties already in its pipeline.

    “We’re operating within a labor- and supply-constrained economy inside a competitive real estate market, especially in the construction, renovation and closing spaces,” Jeremy Wacksman, Zillow’s chief operating officer, said in a statement. “We have not been exempt from these market and capacity issues and we now have an operational backlog for renovations and closings.”

    Shares of Opendoor, one of Zillow’s competitors, jumped as much as 7.9% to $25.27 after the company said it was “open for business.”
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  3. #18678
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    Oct 2007
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    Zillow is funny. Last week my condo was worth $100k less than I listed it for. Today, their "Zestimate" changed to exactly the price that we were asking for. What a co-inky-dink!

    Appraisals themselves are also complete bullshit too though. Our condo appraised a few months ago for $150K less than we are selling it for. Pretty sure the guy just cut and pasted one of the comps from our building without taking into account the fact that our unit was way different and that comp was from last summer.

  4. #18679
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    Dec 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    Zillow is funny. Last week my condo was worth $100k less than I listed it for. Today, their "Zestimate" changed to exactly the price that we were asking for. What a co-inky-dink!

    Appraisals themselves are also complete bullshit too though. Our condo appraised a few months ago for $150K less than we are selling it for. Pretty sure the guy just cut and pasted one of the comps from our building without taking into account the fact that our unit was way different and that comp was from last summer.
    I mean, foundationally appraising is pretty fucked as the real price is "whatever the market will bear" which you don't know until after. Given the number of variables, there's not a lot of good ways to get to a number in supply constrained situations or when there's a low number of comps. Not to mention it's somewhat window dressing given that someone that consistently underappraises will probably get dropped by banks, even with good reason as they'll just package and sell the loan anyhow.

  5. #18680
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    yeah, I noticed that when we listed our house 3 months ago, the zestimate remarkably changed to match our asking price.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "I'd eat a bag of Dicks and wash it down with a Coke any day." - iceman

  6. #18681
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    yeah, I noticed that when we listed our house 3 months ago, the zestimate remarkably changed to match our asking price.
    And if you own 3,800 homes, it isn't a bad way to drive the price up. It isn't like there's really any kind of legal requirement for their Zestimates to be accurate AFAIK. Zillow buying homes definitely presents a conflict of interest.

    But I'm not complaining, if it drives up the price of my home then so be it. Just good to know when you are scrolling through Zillow that the properties listed in the first 48 hrs might have a more accurate value listed. And you can always look at the history anyway.

  7. #18682
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    Mar 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    yeah, I noticed that when we listed our house 3 months ago, the zestimate remarkably changed to match our asking price.
    Staying in CO?

  8. #18683
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    I think Zillow flipping homes is pretty interesting - it's basically a claim their pricing hocus pocus works and they can reliably identify underpriced homes, so they're really putting their money where their mouth is. Funny thing is, I took a cursory look at some of the homes they bought and are selling in the Portland area, and they've had to drop the price on a decent chunk of them to below what they paid, which suggests to me their pricing hocus pocus isn't working that well. No skin off my nose if they want to overpay for homes on which they then take a bath -- as long as they don't steal a home I'm looking at out from under me :-)

  9. #18684
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    Quote Originally Posted by Name Redacted View Post
    And if you own 3,800 homes, it isn't a bad way to drive the price up. It isn't like there's really any kind of legal requirement for their Zestimates to be accurate AFAIK. Zillow buying homes definitely presents a conflict of interest.
    And there is a certain logic to it, right? I mean, Zillow themselves always says the zestimate is a thumbnail estimate, because it cannot take into account the particular details of a particular property. So when someone who can take into account the particular details of a particular property -- the owner -- lists the property at a price significantly higher than the zestimate, it might be because the property is actually worth more than that rough estimate. So zillow changes the zestimate.

    Or at least that would be what their response would be.

    Quote Originally Posted by ColMan View Post
    Staying in CO?
    Yes. Same neighborhood even.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "I'd eat a bag of Dicks and wash it down with a Coke any day." - iceman

  10. #18685
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    Jan 2005
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    Keep Tacoma Feared
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    If you think Zillow is able to manipulate the market by owning 3,800 homes, what do you think about the 80,000 homes owned by BalckRock?

    The U.S. has roughly 140 million housing units. Of those 140 million units, about 80 million are stand-alone single-family homes. Of those 80 million, about 15 million are rental properties. Of those 15 million single-family rentals, institutional investors own about 300,000; most of the rest are owned by individual landlords. Of that 300,000, BlackRock—largely through its investment in the real-estate rental company Invitation Homes—owns about 80,000.

  11. #18686
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    Quote Originally Posted by schuss View Post
    I mean, foundationally appraising is pretty fucked as the real price is "whatever the market will bear" which you don't know until after. Given the number of variables, there's not a lot of good ways to get to a number in supply constrained situations or when there's a low number of comps. Not to mention it's somewhat window dressing given that someone that consistently underappraises will probably get dropped by banks, even with good reason as they'll just package and sell the loan anyhow.
    There's also this: https://www.npr.org/2021/05/21/99853...home-appraisal

  12. #18687
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dantheman View Post
    Oh yeah, structural racism is rife in RE and related stuff from redlining history etc.

  13. #18688
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    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    I actually kinda like it.
    But I would want wood floors, for sure.
    What are the odds that there are two Teslas in that garage?
    Concrete guy owns it so lowwwwwww. Count me in for a diesel Ram + many toys vote.
    Skiing in the rockies is like 70's porn

    Lots of bush

    Some wood

    No faceshots...

    -Mtnlion

  14. #18689
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    Mar 2006
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    Speaking of zillow buying homes....but did you miss the news this morning? Hurry and buy your home now that your competition is gone:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/zi...r-271634565866

  15. #18690
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    Apr 2006
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    Checking in from Teton Valley.

    Things appear to be slowing a bit here. Average days on market is up significantly and shitty inventory at ridiculously inflated pricing is still trickling onto the market and not moving.

    Examples of shitty/overpriced inventory here, here and here.

    There are some spec homes being built in my neighborhood at $500/ sq foot that haven't hit the market yet. It'll be interesting to see if that inventory gets absorbed or not. The "buy at any cost" feeding frenzy has definitely slowed since the summer.

  16. #18691
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    Quote Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot View Post
    Speaking of zillow buying homes....but did you miss the news this morning? Hurry and buy your home now that your competition is gone:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/zi...r-271634565866
    Schweet! Unfortunately, Amazon has changed their policy to allow semi-permanent remote work, as long as you can get in for meetings as needed, which I think is going to be great for anyone who currently owns a house in Bellingham, but will be crappy for me.

  17. #18692
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    Jan 2009
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    Behind the Potato Curtain
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Checking in from Teton Valley.

    Things appear to be slowing a bit here. Average days on market is up significantly and shitty inventory at ridiculously inflated pricing is still trickling onto the market and not moving.

    Examples of shitty/overpriced inventory here, here and here.

    There are some spec homes being built in my neighborhood at $500/ sq foot that haven't hit the market yet. It'll be interesting to see if that inventory gets absorbed or not. The "buy at any cost" feeding frenzy has definitely slowed since the summer.
    Things def seem to have stalled a little bit, curious to see if things that are priced for peak construction cost sell or if dev's lose their asses. These guys put in some cookie cutter townhome down from me with a nice view of Fall River's trash pit, the silent auction 4 at a time is a nice touch.


  18. #18693
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    Sep 2005
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    Last year was so crazy that everyone sees the slowdown and thinks "ooh, does this mean things are cooling" or even "ooh, here comes the crash". But if you excised last year out of our consciousness, what I am seeing here, and what everyone is reporting in this thread, is completely normal seasonal slowdown in a strong market, not anything remotely resembling a true pullback.

    I hope I am wrong, because now, as a non-homeowner that wants to buy back in at some point, I would love a crash. But so far, I don't see any signs of that or even a real flattening beyond the usual seasonal one.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "I'd eat a bag of Dicks and wash it down with a Coke any day." - iceman

  19. #18694
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    Oct 2005
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    Idaho
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    9,912
    Boise and Idaho in general are seeing a slight slowdown from last year's peak. But, if you look at prices from two years ago, still way above anything that would be considered normal appreciation and growth. We've got a long way to tumble before being considered back to normal like you're saying.

  20. #18695
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conundrum View Post
    Boise and Idaho in general are seeing a slight slowdown from last year's peak. But, if you look at prices from two years ago, still way above anything that would be considered normal appreciation and growth. We've got a long way to tumble before being considered back to normal like you're saying.
    I have friends that just moved to Boise from PDX. They found a nice SFH up against the mountains within city limits for $500k. They were house shopping for a total of one weekend and avoided bidding wars.

    The price is still high compared to pre-2020 levels, but not terrible.

  21. #18696
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    Oct 2005
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    Idaho
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    Terrible is relative. A house we were looking at buying to move into (didn't due to some structural issues) sold 2/20 and just sold again for 70% more. Probably doesn't seem bad if you're coming in with your pockets full of big city equity cheddar but tough for the natives. Unless you were already in the game. I doubt it's going to every really get back to pre '20 levels though. Personally, we're in a good spot but many are not if they want to stick around. Such is life. Embrace the change right?

  22. #18697
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    Oct 2003
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    Big in Japan
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Checking in from Teton Valley.

    Things appear to be slowing a bit here. Average days on market is up significantly and shitty inventory at ridiculously inflated pricing is still trickling onto the market and not moving.

    Examples of shitty/overpriced inventory here, here and here.

    There are some spec homes being built in my neighborhood at $500/ sq foot that haven't hit the market yet. It'll be interesting to see if that inventory gets absorbed or not. The "buy at any cost" feeding frenzy has definitely slowed since the summer.
    I kinda get the feeling this is pretty much nationwide. Generally.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  23. #18698
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Last year was so crazy that everyone sees the slowdown and thinks "ooh, does this mean things are cooling" or even "ooh, here comes the crash". But if you excised last year out of our consciousness, what I am seeing here, and what everyone is reporting in this thread, is completely normal seasonal slowdown in a strong market, not anything remotely resembling a true pullback.

    I hope I am wrong, because now, as a non-homeowner that wants to buy back in at some point, I would love a crash. But so far, I don't see any signs of that or even a real flattening beyond the usual seasonal one.
    This isn't going to be a crash or bubble pop. It's going to be musical chairs. Starting now, a lot of people are going to be like David Byrne in one of his more popular songs. "How did I get here?" Looking around. And a little stuck. For years.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  24. #18699
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    Sep 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot View Post
    Speaking of zillow buying homes....but did you miss the news this morning? Hurry and buy your home now that your competition is gone:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/zi...r-271634565866
    Right - And the sooner you lock in that sub 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, the better.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortg...160021820.html
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  25. #18700
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    Oct 2007
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    Seasonal slowdown is seasonal.

    People who cashed out always hope for a crash but what if you can’t get the bank to give you money? You think the bank is gonna lend people money to buy houses that are tanking in value? Sure, when things correct and start heading back up you might find a good deal but that’s gonna be years out.

    Anyway, I don’t see thing really crashing, at least not in this area, maybe they’ll level out for a while.

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