Real Estate Crash thread

[schuss]

Can someone explain to me why using median income versus median sales price is a good measure? I’m probably living in a bubble but the people I know buying houses do not have median incomes.

It appears to me that what would be relevant is the median income of purchasers versus sales price. I suspect the chart would look very different at the 2008 and 2021 peaks, with far more people with lower incomes purchasing homes in 2008.

That would require banks to release it. Median income is a good proxy for "average worker" as typically multiples don't scale that hard. As pointed out, median income, inflation, house sales are all relatively public data. To get data specific to those buying, you either need mortgage companies to aggregate the data and release or bespoke survey+analysis work.

[old_newguy]

That would require banks to release it. Median income is a good proxy for "average worker" as typically multiples don't scale that hard. As pointed out, median income, inflation, house sales are all relatively public data. To get data specific to those buying, you either need mortgage companies to aggregate the data and release or bespoke survey+analysis work.

I totally get that the data is easy to get, but the comparison seems pretty skewed if all of the buyers are upper 10%ers.

Especially when we know the wealth distribution is skewing more and more to the upper end.

Edit- maybe I’m being dense and this comparison between median income and median home price is useful because it correlated with the last 100 years of real estate busts, but it’s never presented that way in these articles, they just point at 2008 and say “see, it’s the same”. Well okay, but it’s not.

[skifishbum]

Jezuz, for anyone who has read about that expedition, I would hardly think it was ecstasy, of all things. Tell that to the guys who were so fed up they said fuck it, we're out of here, climbed all the way to the north side, and got massacred by Mormons.

always stay with the boat bunny
and rig 2 flip

[jono]

Jezuz, for anyone who has read about that expedition, I would hardly think it was ecstasy, of all things. Tell that to the guys who were so fed up they said fuck it, we're out of here, climbed all the way to the north side, and got massacred by Mormons.

This reads like peak Benny right here. Would that be a sign of the top, or what?

[Benny Profane]

Uh huh. You should read some history, child. But, of course, you won't.

[Name Redacted]

Well, it's official, because Greenspan sez so, by announcing last week that the boom is over in a post retirement speech. Soooo.....soft landing?.....nah, I don't think so. It's going to be rough for a few years.

From the NYT Real Estate blog:

"Thomas M. Stevens, president of the National Association of Realtors, said in the news release: “Inventories levels have come up to balanced levels between home buyers and sellers, so the pressure has come off of home prices and most owners can expect steadier gains in home values for the foreseeable future.”

Except where they drop. Here’s something we haven’t seen for a long time in the NAR report: “The median existing-home price in the Midwest was $166,000, down 1.2 percent from a year earlier.”

Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y. said he wasn’t surprised by the decline in sales volume, but added: “The rest of the report is awful.” What’s got him bothered?

He said that the year-over-year increase in unsold inventory of houses of 42.1 percent is the fastest recorded since data collection began in 1982. “No wonder price gains are slowing,” he told clients. “Expect outright declines over the summer.”"

I thought this ^^^^ was peak Bunny (2006), he's been trying to match it ever since.

[jono]

I thought this ^^^^ was peak Bunny (2006), he's been trying to match it ever since.

So there could be a lag, then. That's a good insight, thanks!

Benny, my reading will always be wholly inadequate compared to the word of a local. Thanks for your insights, too!

[Benny Profane]

Back to Pornhub, young man. Nice intelligent discussion, though. I learned a lot!

[dunfree]

Bunny’s a dumbfuck and yet the dirt pimps and slum lords look like dumb fucks too. As the tgr turns.

i mean, come on you dishonest clowns like name redacted, what were you doing in 2006? Own your fail, be better than bunfuck.

[Toadman]

I love that chart/graph/whatev, look at 2009 and 2021, the years I bought and sold my Big Sky place. Living the dream.


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Buy low, sell high.

At least when the zombie apocalypse hits, Harry should be okay, unless zombies can swim.

[Benny Profane]

Bunny’s a dumbfuck and yet the dirt pimps and slum lords look like dumb fucks too. As the tgr turns.

i mean, come on you dishonest clowns like name redacted, what were you doing in 2006? Own your fail, be better than bunfuck.

Yeah, but, where were you?

[Bunion 2020]

Buy low, sell high.

At least when the zombie apocalypse hits, Harry should be okay, unless zombies can swim.

Silly wabbit, Zombies are like cats and hate the water.

[Benny Profane]

Do they float?

[liv2ski]

No, they will stand on each other so the water better be deep.

[El Chupacabra]

Yeah, but, where were you?

Not Connecticut.

[skifishbum]

Uh huh. You should read some history, child. But, of course, you won't.

buzz ran em all solo
twice in a boat he built
you should stick to shit you actually have a clue about
like upstate ny

[Vt-Freeheel]

Bless his heart

[Benny Profane]

buzz ran em all solo
twice in a boat he built
you should stick to shit you actually have a clue about
like upstate ny

Who's buzz? In English.

[altasnob]

Powell was such a visionary that they damned up the river and named that evaporating cesspool after him just so Vegas could have a few more casinos.

[altasnob]

Can someone explain to me why using median income versus median sales price is a good measure?

That statistic is the best measure of affordability in a particular area. Can the average Joe afford to buy a home.

[skifishbum]

if ya knew your colorado river history
youd know of the the buzz
do you even row bro?

[altasnob]

if ya knew your colorado river history
youd know of the the buzz

Oregon legend
https://www.amazon.com/Doing-Thing-B.../dp/1892327074

[dunfree]

Yeah, but, where were you?

lol.

just saying if you were all in on internet STR taking over the world when this thread was started you could have founded a company and turned into a billionaire. Airbnb was founded in 2008 it’s got a market cap of $100 billion now.

[Harry]

Can someone explain to me why using median income versus median sales price is a good measure? I’m probably living in a bubble but the people I know buying houses do not have median incomes.

That statistic is the best measure of affordability in a particular area. Can the average Joe afford to buy a home.

So why don’t you use the median Joe ?



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[Benny Profane]

if ya knew your colorado river history
youd know of the the buzz
do you even row bro?

Oh, forfucka sake.

Btw, I spent 14 days down there in 86. I even oared a few times.

But that doesn't make Powell any more lucky or less. But he's lucky to have lived. And, whoever buzz is, chances are head much more detailed maps than Powell, who literally had zero.