Real Estate Crash thread

[Name Redacted]

I went to a wedding at Redstone, stayed in the castle for a few nights. It wasn’t anything overboard, but it was nice. Don’t think I’d pay $16m for it unless I could make it cash positive as a hotel.

[glademaster]

Interesting area. Never been down that road...seems like a lot of money in that town.

It's close enough to Aspen that everything costs more than it's really worth.

[MakersTeleMark]

Didn't the Redstone just get purchased last year by the group that owns the historic hotel in GWS?

[glademaster]

That was about 5 years ago, I believe. Tough property to try to flip for almost 10x what you paid for it.

[liv2ski]

Huh, looking at this it appears people have not done their homework before moving to Idaho?

[RootSkier]

I keep seeing that list and it just reaffirms my belief that the average American is dumber than a box of rocks.

[Benny Profane]

That was my first thought. But at $1.85 million, that's an expensive tear down. Wishful thinking on the owners part, but WTH, might as well go big.

Oh, shit, you should see what they tear down around here. That's the utility shed.

[pureantigravity]

Who would have thought that asking people to lockdown at home for almost a year would result in,
...
..
.
WAIT FOR IT
...
..
.
People wanting to upgrade to a better home or find a home that is in a better neighborhood.

[liv2ski]

Who would have thought that asking people to lockdown at home for almost a year would result in,
...
..
.
WAIT FOR IT
...
..
.
People wanting to upgrade to a better home or find a home that is in a better neighborhood.

Huh? And yet oddly, I have finally come to really like our home, as we have it exactly the way I like it, the hood is nice to walk the dogs in and it is safe as fuck. All these years I have bitched for a change in venue and now I don't care anymore. Really odd.

[Toadman]

Louisiana finished 30th? I guess New Orleans has strong appeal.

[Core Shot]

Huh, looking at this it appears people have not done their homework before moving to Idaho?

35% of respondents picked dc over dc??

[MontuckyFried]

Those rankings are obviously flawed. Texas (10th) over Montana (18th)? I don't freaking think so. Haha.

[dan_pdx]

Two things: with the methodology they're describing, they needed a huge number of respondents (e.g., you would have to answer 50 individual questions to rate Montana vs. every other state + DC, and that's just one state. Probably can't expect most people to answer that many questions, so you need even more respondents). Note that they didn't say what the sample size was. So who knows if they had enough respondents for the findings to be significant.

Even if they did throw thousands of people at this to achieve statistical significance for small absolute differences, are the results material? Texas at 58% and Montana at 55%...not an important difference even if it's statistically significant.

Having said that, some of the results are interesting, like Nevada being way ahead of New Mexico - must be because of Vegas.

[Ted Striker]

The first question they asked was, "do you have anything better to do for the next 45 minutes?"

Everything else flowed from there

[Iowagriz]

The better of two states for what? Vacation? Taxes? Living?

I'd choose Texas over Montana for ocean beaches.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[MarcusBrody]

Two things: with the methodology they're describing, they needed a huge number of respondents (e.g., you would have to answer 50 individual questions to rate Montana vs. every other state + DC, and that's just one state. Probably can't expect most people to answer that many questions, so you need even more respondents). Note that they didn't say what the sample size was. So who knows if they had enough respondents for the findings to be significant.

Even if they did throw thousands of people at this to achieve statistical significance for small absolute differences, are the results material? Texas at 58% and Montana at 55%...not an important difference even if it's statistically significant.

Having said that, some of the results are interesting, like Nevada being way ahead of New Mexico - must be because of Vegas.

You actually don't need people to do that with this sort of methodology if you have a large sample. You give people a set of randomly generated pairs. They do as many as they are willing. Those results are aggregated. As long as the matchups are random, the aggregation isn't a problem, it just adds a bit of variance.

The assumption here is that the transitive property holds and people are reasonably consistent. So if I prefer Michigan over Iowa and Iowa over Alabama, then I prefer Michigan over Alabama. If that isn't true, then this methodology doesn't work, but it generally holds pretty well and things come out a lot more consistent than having people just rank things.

From the list here though, it looks mostly like a list of places people have enjoyed themselves on vacation. I would like to know if they did any adjustments for how many people from each state responded as I suspect that home state would have a different relationship than the evaluation of the other 50.

That being said, yeah NV! I would not have expected a top 5 finish.

Edit: I just looked it up and 1211 people were asked to choose a winner in 7 matchups each, with none of them seeing the same state twice, so the transitivity isn't as important. of an assumption.

[BCMtnHound]

I would have been tempted to through in a Canadian province or a country/state in Asia or Africa, just see if the respondents were paying attention.

[liv2ski]

Now I know why Danno doesn't want to move. What a beautiful picture.

[RoooR]

Not sure what all these apparent new residents are doing in their free time but they certainly don't seem to be hitting the trails. Weather has been fantastic and the only people I see out riding are the same "locals" from the last decade.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Not sure what all these apparent new residents are doing in their free time but they certainly don't seem to be hitting the trails. Weather has been fantastic and the only people I see out riding are the same "locals" from the last decade.

The onslaught is coming.

[Ted Striker]

It's because they're all here.

[Benny Profane]

So, is this going to put the brakes on RE west of Kansas, and make all of those cheap homes near the Great Lakes look attractive again? Doubtful. You never know.

https://apnews.com/article/arizona-c...50459f3dcb771f

[liv2ski]

Our water bill is about $150 a month. What would it take for people to move? $1k a month bills?

[altasnob]

The PNW part of the West is not in a drought, and is forecasted to become wetter with climate change, so not all the West is fucked. And the vast majority of water use for dry states like CA is for agricultural use. So when the water becomes tight you will see farms disappear before sprawling residential developments. And you will see more of your winter produce being imported from South America and Asia instead of coming from CA and Mexico (Mexico's main agricultural zone relies on Colorado River water).

[Benny Profane]

Our water bill is about $150 a month. What would it take for people to move? $1k a month bills?

It's not even a matter of money. It's a matter of literally rationing water.