Real Estate Crash thread

[shroom]

the youth can pay for everything and like it

i would like to take a loan against earned SS funds for my 900k starter home mr president

[concretejungle]

I shudder to think about the investment properties here I couldn't convince family members to buy as recent as 2015 that are now through the roof.

Same thing in Boulder CO. Tried to convince my dad to buy 3 rentals in 2008. Even as a "dumb college kid" I knew that those properties would be like printing cash. Nope. Pass.

Who wants free money, right?

My parents chose not to buy a place when I was living in Boulder around 2000. The house I sold when I divorced sold for nearly double what we paid here. 2014 to 2019/2020. Whoops.

[lifelinksplit]

Ha. I've built way too many of those high end condos in the background of the 500k houses. Like I said 500k on maybe 1/4 acre lot "tear downs".

Also I'm pretty sure muted is spot on ime. I could go on but RIP.

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[fastfred]

I shudder to think about the investment properties here I couldn't convince family members to buy as recent as 2015 that are now through the roof.

Same thing in Boulder CO. Tried to convince my dad to buy 3 rentals in 2008. Even as a "dumb college kid" I knew that those properties would be like printing cash. Nope. Pass.

Who wants free money, right?

you can pretend you had some crystal ball but no one knew shit

[Hopeless Sinner]

you can pretend you had some crystal ball but no one knew shit

Actually if you like something well enough that isn't outlandish and have the resources typically a purchase pays off; some sooner than others. Convincing others that a purchase will pay off is exceedingly difficult, especially after the world's monetary system barely survives as in 2008.

In my case we bought in an area that hadn't recovered in 2015 so we have done ok, of course not as well if I had the $$ in 1980 when it was readily apparent that it was going to be a great moneymaker eventually.

[VTeton]

Benny lives in a shithole called CT and housing prices have sucked there as the old rich Fucks have moved to Florida to avoid taxes. Look at the TRUMP condo values. Down like a rock......

This virus has breathed some life into the CT market.

[muted]

you can pretend you had some crystal ball but no one knew shit

Exactly. I've hung out on porches across the street from kathleen's bozeman property link, I know people who live a block down from there, I've lived in rentals downtown Bozeman not far away but on the other side of Main, and many of them were old fixer-uppers that cost a small fortune to heat and are dated. One rental I lived in I could see headlights shine through the walls faintly as I tried to fall asleep in my sleeping bag with a ski hat on every winter night. None of us were thinking, man, we need to invest in these shitholes before they are worth 3-5x what we pay for them. A few of us bought houses that were nice though but still we were not clairvoyant or hardcore investors. (We were not all broke ski bums forever, not trying to be 'core' here.)

I think earlier Brock was saying essentially "the west is growing, of course' but it's not exactly that simple. There is this huge Great Digital Migration that you can't grasp as a local as it slowly creeps into your local ski town for years, until it's too late. In 2005 I moved from Bozeman because I couldn't make a living in my career at the time. Way back then I couldn't even figure out who could afford a house in town as prices skyrocketed. Where were these people working? Who are these people? Who is moving here that barely skis that want to put up with these miserable winters? And who is investing and building all these new buildings? Only a few places paid well in town, I couldn't figure it out. And now those expensive prices in 2005 are a frickin' bargain. (There was a big crash in 2007 there, yes, even more of a bargain at that point. Even reasonable I would say.)

Now it's obvious what we should have done. It wasn't then, at least to me.

[Toadman]

$900+/square foot in Bozeman is absurd, although I'm just posting it here to break Benny's brain

Damn, that makes living is a shithole city like NYC, LA, CHI or SFO, SEA look more and more appealing! Culture!

[Tips^Up]

Looking at a house for sale tomorrow. $315/sf. Apartment above the garage would cover about 60% of cost. Stupid price but it nearly makes sense.

[liv2ski]

Looking at a house for sale tomorrow. $315/sf. Apartment above the garage would cover about 60% of cost. Stupid price but it nearly makes sense.

If you can rent out the garage apartment to cover 60% of the PITI, that would be a strong buy in my book if you like the property.

[Hopeless Sinner]

The link to NYT article is a good summary of many factors that are shaping the RE market now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/26/u...gtype=Homepage

[Name Redacted]

Looking at a house for sale tomorrow. $315/sf. Apartment above the garage would cover about 60% of cost. Stupid price but it nearly makes sense.

But think about whether you really want to rent out an apartment at your home. Share parking, etc? What’s the setup like?

[AdironRider]

But think about whether you really want to rent out an apartment at your home. Share parking, etc? What’s the setup like?

Rent it long term at $100 bucks less than market and you get to be picky about tenants, and you make up the $100 bucks a month in lost rent with basically zero turnover for years.

[RoooR]

The extreme supply constriction does match the anecdotal evidence. Hopefully once boomers are fine with letting people in their homes post vaccination there will be some moderation on the price front.

[Tips^Up]

But think about whether you really want to rent out an apartment at your home. Share parking, etc? What’s the setup like?

Our first home in 2013 (the local post-recession trough) had a 1-br carriage house above the garage and the 3-br "big house". We lived in the carriage house, rented the big, essentially breaking even for no rent/mortgage; this allowed us to accelerate savings. We purchased our current home Christmas 2016, 2-br with a 1-br basement lockoff, 1 rental unit to 3.

If this place today checks out, it will take us from 3 to 5 rental units. It would become our 3rd property, all locked in with long-term owner occupied financing. It has been a great wealth building strategy for us. Not sure if we have more appreciation to squeeze at this point, but it pencils out for our situation even if rents drop significantly. Marketing, showing it to tenants, fixing problems - it sucks sometimes but all jobs do, that's why they give you money.

Some people are doom and gloom on here about the housing market. It has been an exciting and enriching experience for us. At these cheap rates, the spike in sale prices has a surprisingly little affect on monthly mortgage cost.

[climberevan]

Rent it long term at $100 bucks less than market and you get to be picky about tenants, and you make up the $100 bucks a month in lost rent with basically zero turnover for years.

I have a rental cottage on my property and can confirm this. Every time it turns over a lose at least a month, so keeping it relatively cheap has actually made me more money by keeping the same tenants longer. The #1 advice is to choose your tenants carefully!

I will say that dealing with it isn't nothing. Sometimes it's a headache (like when they call at 2100h because the carbon monoxide alarm is inexplicably going off), but overall it's fantastic free money that paid my entire mortgage while I still had one.

I came here to post the NYT article. I think the dearth of supply is likely the biggest cause of the recent run-up in prices. I also enjoyed the discussion here about how even a small influx of new money to a town can really have an outsized effect on pricing, especially in a supply-constrained environment.

Houses in my neighborhood, FWIW, have gone from the low $300s in 2012 to $600s now, with brand new specs being offered for $900k as the few remaining vacant lots are built on.

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[shroom]

which turns something that is not an investment into something perceived as one, purely facilitated by the governement

i’m trying to think of something cool other than homes/stonks/fairy coins/ to squat on

bobby stainless did it right with the nice whips

we’re obsessed with artificial scarcity and debt

[AdironRider]

I'm not sure I buy the argument that boomers are being scared to let people in their house because of covid being a big part of the supply side problem. When you are poised to make hundreds of thousands of dollars the money talks and the bullshit walks. I'm starting to think people are just seeing the rapid run up in prices, are getting greedy, and holding out for more. Combine that with the concept of unless you are moving to a new, lower valued locale, you are just rolling those profits into another inflated price house, and there is little motivation to sell.

[char_]

I'm not sure I buy the argument that boomers are being scared to let people in their house because of covid being a big part of the supply side problem. When you are poised to make hundreds of thousands of dollars the money talks and the bullshit walks. I'm starting to think people are just seeing the rapid run up in prices, are getting greedy, and holding out for more. Combine that with the concept of unless you are moving to a new, lower valued locale, you are just rolling those profits into another inflated price house, and there is little motivation to sell.

I’ve been told that the low rental and for sale inventory is also an issue because there is no where to move to if you sell. If you sell, get in line with 10 other offers on the limited supply. Turns off lots of people looking to move up and/or their offers with a contingency for selling their current house isn’t as appealing as a cash or regular financing with limited contingencies.

I think the craziest thing going on right now is waiver of inspection, etc contingencies based on a 15 minute walk through.

[Name Redacted]

Our first home in 2013 (the local post-recession trough) had a 1-br carriage house above the garage and the 3-br "big house". We lived in the carriage house, rented the big, essentially breaking even for no rent/mortgage; this allowed us to accelerate savings. We purchased our current home Christmas 2016, 2-br with a 1-br basement lockoff, 1 rental unit to 3.

If this place today checks out, it will take us from 3 to 5 rental units. It would become our 3rd property, all locked in with long-term owner occupied financing. It has been a great wealth building strategy for us. Not sure if we have more appreciation to squeeze at this point, but it pencils out for our situation even if rents drop significantly. Marketing, showing it to tenants, fixing problems - it sucks sometimes but all jobs do, that's why they give you money.

Some people are doom and gloom on here about the housing market. It has been an exciting and enriching experience for us. At these cheap rates, the spike in sale prices has a surprisingly little affect on monthly mortgage cost.

Wasn’t meant to be snarky, just having renters on site isn’t for some people, like my wife. Just saying that if someone was considering buying a place with an ADU I would really think about how it would effect the living situation w/ renters. We spent many years in apartments so having a SFH is a priority.

Obviously it isn’t a dealbreaker for you. I have friends who have done it with varied levels of success and some horror stories. I too have rental properties in the CO high country just none in my house, and yeah, they are quite good investments. We’d rather keep them separate but if it works for you that’s great.

[AdironRider]

I don't know, I think home inspections are by and large a racket. Most people are going to know, notably if they have been homeowners before, if major shit is fucked up. Boiler is 20 years old? Yeah, probably going to be replacing that. Windows cloudy? Yeah, those dual panes failed. Uneven floors? Foundation probably has settled over time. Signs of water damage are pretty damn easy to spot. You don't need some 'couldn't hack it as a contractor guy' to tell you these things if you've been around the block once or twice. And there is a reason they only cost like 3-500 bucks.

I also think that for most people if you want the house, you are going to buy it, regardless of issues, pretty much regardless of market conditions. Human nature mostly.

[Kevo]

As Benny pointed out, Boise is fucking crazy. I've said that a number of times over the last year or two in this thread but it keeps going up. Irritating to say the least. I'm fine. I bought a quaint house downtown about 20 years ago but most of the reasons I stayed here after school are pretty much gone unless you like crowds, a lot of people, all the time. It's sad to see people who grew up here who will never be able to have their own house until their parents die. And that's still a maybe. Rentals, also fucked. I was talking to a buddy in the medical field and they are hiring people at $150k salary fresh out of school who are buying RVs and living in them until they can get a down payment saved up. Personally, doesn't seem like a winning strategy when you're competing against cash offers. There are the outlying communities that you may find something in the $4-500k range but that will come with a 30-60 minute drive to work. We've done it. We've become the place long time locals want to move away from. Sorry to all you small towns that liked being small towns.

According to Zillow, there is not a house or condo for sale under $600k within a one mile radius of me. I'm talking including tear downs. There is one .25 acre lot with a view for $500k. Madness.

I'm hoping for a bust but word around town is it's going to be awhile. And it's not just dirt pimps saying it. Everybody is saying it. Fingers crossed...

You've finally come around to seeing the downside of the Boise boom?

The treasure valley seems like will be a testament to poorly planned, poorly zoned, lack of infrastructure mountain west living. It's looking like SLC 2.0 with worse mountain access, less connections to the outside world and somehow less infrastructure per capita because Idaho despises anything that looks like forward thinking or urban planning. Development in Boise has been left up to the free market, and the free market has decided that strip malls, parking lots, 4 lane roads with stop lights every 150 yards and chain restaurants are the way to go. It is mind boggling, but expected.

[RootSkier]

I don't know, I think home inspections are by and large a racket.

Wait, you think home inspectors, who by and large are referred by realtors to their clients, might be a racket?

[char_]

I don't know, I think home inspections are by and large a racket. Most people are going to know, notably if they have been homeowners before, if major shit is fucked up. Boiler is 20 years old? Yeah, probably going to be replacing that. Windows cloudy? Yeah, those dual panes failed. Uneven floors? Foundation probably has settled over time. Signs of water damage are pretty damn easy to spot. You don't need some 'couldn't hack it as a contractor guy' to tell you these things if you've been around the block once or twice. And there is a reason they only cost like 3-500 bucks.

I also think that for most people if you want the house, you are going to buy it, regardless of issues, pretty much regardless of market conditions. Human nature mostly.

You aren’t going to pick up some major issues in a 15 minute walk through. I’m talking about waiving the inspection contingency period entirely, not just having a “pro” look at it.

You are not going to get in the crawl space and see water or foundation cracking or find the attic leaks on the walkthrough timelines they are allowing currently, which is 30 minutes max.

I tend to agree on the pro inspectors being sort of useless if you have half a clue.

What you have is people doing a 15 minute walk though, offering 15% over ask and waiving inspection contingencies. Crazy if you ask me, but par for the course right now.

[kathleenturneroverdrive]

Combine that with the concept of unless you are moving to a new, lower valued locale, you are just rolling those profits into another inflated price house, and there is little motivation to sell.

We did a big renovation instead of move this year. This was reason #1 of maybe 5 or 10 that made us go that route.