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  1. #12851
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    Quote Originally Posted by old_newguy View Post
    Lots of speculation that income to home prices are out of whack, but I haven’t seen anyone present data that home buyers income is out of whack with home prices yet.
    Not buyers income per se, but definitely LOCALS median incomes. I recently made a post about that. Kinda hard to be a buyer when your town's local wages are crap and the home prices shot up like they have. Saw a realtor make a post on Nextdoor saying that something like 90% of her clients are from the West coast.

    Interesting inventory trend, though. I noticed that inventory in my area is down even further. Like WAY down. Normally my neighborhood would have somewhere around 1/2 dozen homes for sale at any given time. Then these last few months it was like 3. Now there isn't a single one available within a couple miles. I've never seen that happen and I monitor local RE pretty closely. It's almost as if people are holding tight perhaps because the proposition of relocating is looking less appealing than ever before. Who wants to sell their home just to end up in stupid bidding wars with idiots who want to overpay? Often cash, sight unseen. Nope. I'm out. Sitting tight at least until all these out of town jokers calm the hell down.

  2. #12852
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    Quote Originally Posted by MontuckyFried View Post
    Not buyers income per se, but definitely LOCALS median incomes. I recently made a post about that. Kinda hard to be a buyer when your town's local wages are crap and the home prices shot up like they have. Saw a realtor make a post on Nextdoor saying that something like 90% of her clients are from the West coast.
    I don't think any (many?) would argue that prices are outstripping the median income of "locals" (in quotes because how do we define). But if they're not out of line with the income of the buyers, are the fundamentals really pointing to a downturn? I think that was his point.

    Quote Originally Posted by MontuckyFried View Post
    Interesting inventory trend, though. I noticed that inventory in my area is down even further. Like WAY down. Normally my neighborhood would have somewhere around 1/2 dozen homes for sale at any given time. Then these last few months it was like 3. Now there isn't a single one available within a couple miles. I've never seen that happen and I monitor local RE pretty closely. It's almost as if people are holding tight perhaps because the proposition of relocating is looking less appealing than ever before. Who wants to sell their home just to end up in stupid bidding wars with idiots who want to overpay? Often cash, sight unseen. Nope. I'm out. Sitting tight at least until all these out of town jokers calm the hell down.
    Inventory has been crazy low around here for a long time, although this week I did see a proportionally large number of houses come on the market. Not a ton, but when there's 1 on the market and 3 new ones pop up it seems like a ton. We'll see if that upward trend continues. It is the start of our selling season so seeing more homes is expected, of course, but maybe we'll see lots of people trying to grab some profit and that might help right the ship.

    Around here, though, to the extent we have transplants escaping big cities, I don't see them finding this place too provincial and going back.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  3. #12853
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    Well they may discover they don't like hippies.

  4. #12854
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    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    Well they may discover they don't like hippies.
    well, then, they'll fit right in here. There aren't any real hippies left. The ones who may have been hippies 30-40 years ago when this place got/had that reputation bought property and now are the biggest group of annoying douchebag NIMBYs you can find anywhere.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  5. #12855
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    Or lawyers...

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using TGR Forums mobile app

  6. #12856
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    I don't think any (many?) would argue that prices are outstripping the median income of "locals" (in quotes because how do we define). But if they're not out of line with the income of the buyers, are the fundamentals really pointing to a downturn? I think that was his point.

    .
    Exactly my point.

  7. #12857
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    I don't understand the sustainability of everything. Stock market, real estate, rent, food, you name it, the prices are jumping big time everywhere I look. I sure hope there is a big correction, but again, what will cause it if Covid didn't do shit to slow down prices?
    It's this way for *reasons* and will continue until *event(s)* and doesn't care what you hope for. (and I know you know that)

    There's no question that many local markets are irrational right now, and that some of the 'winners' of these insane bidding wars will end up upside down. There's no question that when rates rise some recent buyers are going to default. If/when the WFH crowd gets forced back into offices some of them will lose their shirts (unless they have good re-lo insurance). But all of that is anecdotal (at this point).

    Quote Originally Posted by old_newguy View Post
    What are the fundamentals though. Lots of speculation that income to home prices are out of whack, but I haven’t seen anyone present data that home buyers income is out of whack with home prices yet.
    Yeah, I'm guessing it exists locally, but not nationally (yet).


    Supply is low, demand is high, and supported by demographics. Rates are low, and if/when they start rising the buying frenzy will start to cool off, but so will construction. With materials costs as high as they are, any significant rise in the cost of financing will kill the margins for all but the biggest players, and punt the small guys back to doing renos. For the most part, I think supply will follow demand on that one.

    Short of a tanking economy there's still plenty of wind in these sails.

  8. #12858
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    Dec 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    I thought rents in some of the big citys like San Francisco and NYC were cratering? It seems pretty clear if rents are falling, rental vacancies are up, but home purchases are soaring maybe there’s a connection? Like here
    https://www.twincities.com/2021/02/0...ring-pandemic/

    it’s hard wading through the industry of shit “citys are dieing cuz takes though, and that’s kinda the lazyass press.
    Sure, but there was already a housing crunch in all those places, so it's dropping to "high but not absurd" from "absurd" levels. You can still fill apartments, but it's for market and may take a few months vs above market and first showing (based on a buddy renting out and talking to people).

  9. #12859
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    Quote Originally Posted by XXX-er View Post
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osf...ules-1.5979558

    shit is crazy up here as well so the banks are gona change the rules
    The regulator is not the banks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Well, those are two separate things, whether this is the new normal and whether you better get on the train now if you can.

    It all feels so unsustainable, but it also feels to me like the new normal. And yes, of course, my feelings are deep indicators of market analysis.

    But even if I don't think a crash is coming, that doesn't mean that you better jump now before you lose your chance. There may be much better places to put your money.
    At some point, though, it’s just the roof over your head. Obvious and all, but where I come home to and raise my kids isn’t always a strictly “rational” dollars and cents choice, and I’m not sure it has to be.
    focus.

  10. #12860
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mustonen View Post
    At some point, though, it’s just the roof over your head. Obvious and all, but where I come home to and raise my kids isn’t always a strictly “rational” dollars and cents choice, and I’m not sure it has to be.
    Sure, but purchasing something for many hundreds of thousands of dollars isn't the only way to put a roof over your head. At least in most places, at least for the moment. Though admittedly, lack of availability of reasonable housing for purchase OR rental will at some point bring things back to earth, or at least my gut says that.

    But nothing about what our guts have been telling us has matched what the market has done, so...
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  11. #12861
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    Sep 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Gotta put a nice comfy indoor couch on the porch to complete the look.
    Just get a frog statue. Problem solved.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/delightfu...195151396.html

    This woman was so upset about a frog statuette in her neighbor’s lawn that she reported it to her homeowner’s association (HOA) — and the rest is history.

    In The Know
    Controversial lawn decoration ignites battle within neighborhood: ‘Why would you do this?’
    Kelsey Weekman
    Sat, April 10, 2021, 10:00 AM

    This woman was so upset about a frog statuette in her neighbor’s lawn that she reported it to her homeowner’s association (HOA) — and the rest is history.

    A Reddit user, writing under the username anonymous28538382348, shared details about her campaign against the lawn ornament to the website’s r/AmITheA******* forum.


    In the post, which drew hundreds of comments and went viral on Twitter, anonymous28538382348 explains that she goes on walks through the neighborhood with her husband and 6-year-old daughter every day.

    “Recently one of our neighbors put up a frog statuette up for display outside their house,” she wrote. “I find it really creepy … my daughter hates it. She is absolutely terrified of it. Now she refuses to go on walks.”
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  12. #12862
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Sharp increase in interest rates?
    First comes the sharp increase in inflation, which the Fed manipulates with their cheery picked data. By the time the clueless Fed is forced to admit their is an inflation issue, it will react very, very slowly, and by then it will be too late.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  13. #12863
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    First comes the sharp increase in inflation, which the Fed manipulates with their cheery picked data. By the time the clueless Fed is forced to admit their is an inflation issue, it will react very, very slowly, and by then it will be too late.
    But if that’s true then isn’t wfh & the great workplace restructuring bad, because it’s not increasing productivity?

  14. #12864
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    Jan 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    First comes the sharp increase in inflation, which the Fed manipulates with their cheery picked data. By the time the clueless Fed is forced to admit their is an inflation issue, it will react very, very slowly, and by then it will be too late.
    With the Fed having ‘inflation worries’ over so many years, and Yellen getting criticism for her 2015 worries (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...inflation-risk), you really think the current Fed is going to take data at face value?

  15. #12865
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    Mar 2005
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    It’s more than covid.

    Big money looking for hard assets to shelter inflation is a big driver at the top end market.

    But the biggest percent price increase here is on the mid range. 450k houses now selling for 700k. That’s retarded. And more wfh or escape the city money. Covid mania for sure
    . . .

  16. #12866
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Sharp increase in interest rates?
    That, and destruction of the dollar as the world's currency, whichever comes first.

  17. #12867
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    May 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    That, and destruction of the dollar as the world's currency, whichever comes first.
    Bitcoin man. Didn't you hear? #lambos

    Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app

  18. #12868
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    Feb 2005
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    19,214
    Quote Originally Posted by Skidog View Post
    Bitcoin man. Didn't you hear? #lambos

    Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app
    Name a better hedge on inflation? And don't say gold.

    Danno, didn't you do dead tour before buying in Boulder?

  19. #12869
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    Jan 2008
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    Big Sky/Moonlight Basin
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conundrum View Post
    Insurance, taxes, and employment law varies by state. It can be a pain. International especially. Liability, work comp, and health insurance to name a few. Not insurmountable but many insurance companies are not filed in certain states so there is some admin headache and cost of switching policies to accommodate new states or when the out of state employee starts complaining that a regional plan has 0 in network docs where the employee lives. Many states are cracking down on calling employees 1099s so that loophole is also going away for many employers.

    There has been a lot of overlooking going on for WFH for Covid but as things calm down, that is changing.
    That’s an excellent argument for Medicare-for-All


    Sent from my iPad using TGR Forums
    "Zee damn fat skis are ruining zee piste !" -Oscar Schevlin

    "Hike up your skirt and grow a dick you fucking crybaby" -what Bunion said to Harry at the top of The Headwaters

  20. #12870
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    Quote Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark View Post
    Danno, didn't you do dead tour before buying in Boulder?
    My last Dead show was 15 years before I bought in Boulder, but yes?
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  21. #12871
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    Aug 2007
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    19,069
    Quote Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark View Post
    Name a better hedge on inflation? And don't say gold.
    Pfft Bitcoin is this centuries Tulip Bulb bust. Buy income producing real estate. Apartments, farmland, etc
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  22. #12872
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Pfft Bitcoin is this centuries Tulip Bulb bust. Buy income producing real estate. Apartments, farmland, etc
    Noted. See you in 10 years.

  23. #12873
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Pfft Bitcoin is this centuries Tulip Bulb bust. Buy income producing real estate. Apartments, farmland, etc
    Truth.

    They made gold illegal before they reset the price. They can make crypto illegal anytime they want. Digital currency is the future. But which one will they allow?

    Hard assets hedge inflation. I doubt land ownership will be banned. Taxed and overtaxed yes. But always legal. I hope.
    . . .

  24. #12874
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    Quote Originally Posted by Core Shot View Post
    They made gold illegal before they reset the price. They can make crypto illegal anytime they want.
    True, but good luck being able to enforce that one. Unlike gold, all you have to do is "forget" the password to your crypto wallet like that guy in Germany.

  25. #12875
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Pfft Bitcoin is this centuries Tulip Bulb bust. Buy income producing real estate. Apartments, farmland, etc
    Seems Gates like to buy land too.

    https://www.dw.com/en/bill-gates-buy...ree/a-57134690

    In January, US magazine The Land Report — which tracks land transactions and produces an annual list of the 100 biggest US landowners — revealed that Bill and Melinda Gates have one of the largest portfolios of private farmland in the US, with assets totaling more than $690 million

    Most things Gates gets involved with have been appropriated by one conspiracy theory or another, and this is no different. Some argue that Gates is buying up land to indulge in futuristic experiments in urban dwelling or the creation of new food.

    But the reason for the move may in fact be more prosaic: It’s a good investment, with low volatility, not closely tied to the stock market and can be deployed as an inflationary hedge
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

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