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  1. #12801
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    Limon?
    It's actually just outside Craig - so way more "actual mountain" than Limon. I'd bet you could get an even better deal in Limon.

    Shit - I just found an 1100 sq footer in Stratton (3bed/1bath) for $89.9K.

  2. #12802
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    I don't know where the crash comes from, the data is nothing like 2008.

    Let's take a made up scenario as to why there doesn't have to be a crash:
    2008: 20 people buy houses in a neighborhood. 15 of them do not have the money to afford the house, they have no money down and they can barely pay the mortgage, but get a stated income loan and figure that they can refinance soon and pull equity out because home prices always rise. When the market and economy dips, they get laid off, and they have no equity and have a mortgage they can't pay. Foreclosure for 15 of 20 houses.

    2021: 20 houses are sold in a neighborhood. 15 of them are cash buyers (who may even own multiple homes). When the market dips, they may not have a job to get laid off from, and in any event they paid cash for the house so while their "investment" may have dipped in value, they have no mortgage to worry about. No foreclosures and no major tanking of home values because there is no economic collapse.

    In many ways it feels like we are reaping the effects of sowing decades of policies that lead to economic inequality. There's enough money out there in enough hands that "average" folks are getting priced out of everything. I hope I am wrong but it doesn't feel like I am.
    I agree in terms of the fundamentals and who is buying. There is some semblance of underwriting and review going on this go round. However, with each passing day I'm more and more convinced we are seeing the effects of a decade of loose monetary policy (quant easing, etc) and it just got shoved into high gear with several trillion of stimulus since March 2020. Read somewhere in the past year the money supply has gone up 25%. Apparently that is all getting parked in housing. You can see some of the effects in used car pricing also, albeit on a much smaller scale.
    Live Free or Die

  3. #12803
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    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    It's actually just outside Craig - so way more "actual mountain" than Limon. I'd bet you could get an even better deal in Limon.

    Shit - I just found an 1100 sq footer in Stratton (3bed/1bath) for $89.9K.
    Buy now before they dump the coal plant and profit!
    Live Free or Die

  4. #12804
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    I don't know where the crash comes from, the data is nothing like 2008.

    Let's take a made up scenario as to why there doesn't have to be a crash:
    2008: 20 people buy houses in a neighborhood. 15 of them do not have the money to afford the house, they have no money down and they can barely pay the mortgage, but get a stated income loan and figure that they can refinance soon and pull equity out because home prices always rise. When the market and economy dips, they get laid off, and they have no equity and have a mortgage they can't pay. Foreclosure for 15 of 20 houses.

    2021: 20 houses are sold in a neighborhood. 15 of them are cash buyers (who may even own multiple homes). When the market dips, they may not have a job to get laid off from, and in any event they paid cash for the house so while their "investment" may have dipped in value, they have no mortgage to worry about. No foreclosures and no major tanking of home values because there is no economic collapse.

    In many ways it feels like we are reaping the effects of sowing decades of policies that lead to economic inequality. There's enough money out there in enough hands that "average" folks are getting priced out of everything. I hope I am wrong but it doesn't feel like I am.
    Kevo pointed this out months ago but it was recently reported that 1:5 homes are being purchased by investment banks and turned into rentals. So maybe there is some scenario where the have to unwind their position for other reasons, but like you I don’t know what it is.

  5. #12805
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    I don't know where the crash comes from, the data is nothing like 2008.

    Let's take a made up scenario as to why there doesn't have to be a crash:
    2008: 20 people buy houses in a neighborhood. 15 of them do not have the money to afford the house, they have no money down and they can barely pay the mortgage, but get a stated income loan and figure that they can refinance soon and pull equity out because home prices always rise. When the market and economy dips, they get laid off, and they have no equity and have a mortgage they can't pay. Foreclosure for 15 of 20 houses.

    2021: 20 houses are sold in a neighborhood. 15 of them are cash buyers (who may even own multiple homes). When the market dips, they may not have a job to get laid off from, and in any event they paid cash for the house so while their "investment" may have dipped in value, they have no mortgage to worry about. No foreclosures and no major tanking of home values because there is no economic collapse
    How many of the 2021 cash buyers are keeping that in the home? Many reasons why they would want to tap into the home equity - taxation, further investment, etc. this is tgr where everyone lives in a desirable place, but there’s situations where the local market might tank and you are left with a house that you can’t clear much to rent, and can’t sell, and that takes a d3cent bit of $ (like the dink md couple near me who moved away and left their home unlived in for 6 years and finally sold in November)

  6. #12806
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    I don't know where the crash comes from, the data is nothing like 2008.

    Let's take a made up scenario as to why there doesn't have to be a crash:
    2008: 20 people buy houses in a neighborhood. 15 of them do not have the money to afford the house, they have no money down and they can barely pay the mortgage, but get a stated income loan and figure that they can refinance soon and pull equity out because home prices always rise. When the market and economy dips, they get laid off, and they have no equity and have a mortgage they can't pay. Foreclosure for 15 of 20 houses.

    2021: 20 houses are sold in a neighborhood. 15 of them are cash buyers (who may even own multiple homes). When the market dips, they may not have a job to get laid off from, and in any event they paid cash for the house so while their "investment" may have dipped in value, they have no mortgage to worry about. No foreclosures and no major tanking of home values because there is no economic collapse.

    In many ways it feels like we are reaping the effects of sowing decades of policies that lead to economic inequality. There's enough money out there in enough hands that "average" folks are getting priced out of everything. I hope I am wrong but it doesn't feel like I am.
    Very interesting perspective. Well put and very likely. You make a very good point that the new buyers (2021) differ in the cash factor. 2008 collapse was due to over borrow.

    So much for the "middle class". I guess best bet is to gamble in some new market (bitcoin/ride gme like waves), cash in, and buy real estate.

    As someone famous said. Buy land, they ain't making any more of it. Or something like that.

    Sent from my Pixel 4a (5G) using TGR Forums mobile app

  7. #12807
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    My "explanation" is obviously crude and lacking nuance, and I lack deep knowledge of the housing market and monetary policy, I just observe the housing market a lot, especially in my region, just like a lot of you do. And what's going on now seems more sustainable than 2008, or at least not heading for the same type of crash as 2008, because it looks completely different.

    And it's definitely not because of stimulus money. They didn't hand out enough stimulus cash to go buying a house.

    I'm not saying it's good, but it seems here to stay.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  8. #12808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    And it's definitely not because of stimulus money. They didn't hand out enough stimulus cash to go buying a house.
    Except that they did. Sure the direct payments weren't enough, but a lot of business owners made out like bandits with PPP and the state administered programs. These are the people that are buying property.

  9. #12809
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    Quote Originally Posted by Woolly the Mammoth View Post
    Except that they did. Sure the direct payments weren't enough, but a lot of business owners made out like bandits with PPP and the state administered programs. These are the people that are buying property.
    ok, maybe, I was just looking at the money I got and while it was nice, it wasn't even enough for a down payment on a trailer. Maybe the business programs led to that. Still, that has to only be a contributing factor and not the cause, because this shit has been going on since well before 2020, it's just accelerated.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  10. #12810
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    Danno I agree with your general hypothesis about decades-long increasing wealth inequality. Stimulus, WFH and historically low interest rates just goosed everything this past year.

  11. #12811
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    ok, maybe, I was just looking at the money I got and while it was nice, it wasn't even enough for a down payment on a trailer. Maybe the business programs led to that. Still, that has to only be a contributing factor and not the cause, because this shit has been going on since well before 2020, it's just accelerated.
    probably in some areas, but I don’t think it’s 40+ small biz owners getting into a bidding war over a $300k home in a Midwest suburb. That hypothetical $350k all cash offer has a much different range of financial profiles vs a $950k all cash offer in Boulder. The latter is “rich” by most standards, the former probably not.

  12. #12812
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    I think the covid effect pendulum is gonna swing back hard pretty soon. A lot of the people who fled the cities are gonna wake up one day, look at each other, and say "wtf are we doing here?" and go back where they came from. Not all of them by any means, but a significant enough amount of them to take the air out of the market.

    just my guess

  13. #12813
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    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    I think the covid effect pendulum is gonna swing back hard pretty soon. A lot of the people who fled the cities are gonna wake up one day, look at each other, and say "wtf are we doing here?" and go back where they came from. Not all of them by any means, but a significant enough amount of them to take the air out of the market.

    just my guess
    on one level this makes sense, but the hypothesis that the crazy prices and cash offers are just individuals/families coming from somewhere else would mean that other places are seeing a flood of exodus and falling prices, no? Is that really happening? IOW, is this just a redistribution of people with money, or is there something else going on?
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  14. #12814
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    Quote Originally Posted by old_newguy View Post
    Kevo pointed this out months ago but it was recently reported that 1:5 homes are being purchased by investment banks and turned into rentals. So maybe there is some scenario where the have to unwind their position for other reasons, but like you I don’t know what it is.
    Maybe the derivatives, over leveraged game. Or more likely, Zombie Apocalypse.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  15. #12815
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    on one level this makes sense, but the hypothesis that the crazy prices and cash offers are just individuals/families coming from somewhere else would mean that other places are seeing a flood of exodus and falling prices, no? Is that really happening? IOW, is this just a redistribution of people with money, or is there something else going on?
    I think it's been basically market adrenaline. Almost hysteria. People were fleeing and looking for places and willing/able to pay top dollar is one part of it, the other part of it is people seeing that was happening and buying as an investment, thinking that people will keep coming and prices will keep going up so why not buy now and make some money later when they sell?

    Reduce the demand from people coming, reverse it a bit with some folks leaving, and the investment idea suddenly doesn't look as good. So then the investors start bailing to try to get out while they're still ahead, and the souffle falls.

    Hypothetically.

  16. #12816
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    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    on one level this makes sense, but the hypothesis that the crazy prices and cash offers are just individuals/families coming from somewhere else would mean that other places are seeing a flood of exodus and falling prices, no? Is that really happening? IOW, is this just a redistribution of people with money, or is there something else going on?
    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    I think the covid effect pendulum is gonna swing back hard pretty soon. A lot of the people who fled the cities are gonna wake up one day, look at each other, and say "wtf are we doing here?" and go back where they came from. Not all of them by any means, but a significant enough amount of them to take the air out of the market.

    just my guess
    Quote Originally Posted by old_newguy View Post
    Kevo pointed this out months ago but it was recently reported that 1:5 homes are being purchased by investment banks and turned into rentals. So maybe there is some scenario where the have to unwind their position for other reasons, but like you I don’t know what it is.
    Maybe investment banks and etc spied this out and are the ones swooping up real estate in previously highly desirable areas, to rent the houses back to those who realize country living wasn’t all it was cracked up to be?
    focus.

  17. #12817
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    Weren't we just arguing articles and data points a year or two ago how the Millennials didn't want houses and were content with rentals in the city....and how the boomers in their giant houses were gonna suddenly have no one to sell to?

    Well....maybe the millennials have suddenly changed their minds?

  18. #12818
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    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    I think the covid effect pendulum is gonna swing back hard pretty soon. A lot of the people who fled the cities are gonna wake up one day, look at each other, and say "wtf are we doing here?" and go back where they came from. Not all of them by any means, but a significant enough amount of them to take the air out of the market.

    just my guess

    Praise jeebus, let's hope so!

  19. #12819
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    @ Mustonen: Yeah I mean if there is going to be a market swing back towards the cities at all, now would be the time to get out in front of it if you want to make money. Zig when they zag. Be there waiting.

  20. #12820
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    a 2x4 in the 80's was selling for 90 cents
    a 2x4 just today is selling for almost ten dollars
    the cost of building is helping drive prices, so that shit hole in shit hole usa that isn't worth shit but because around the corner the bottom dollar new shit hole that got built for 200 sq ft creates a comp and now that sixty year old dump is worth close to that new place


    get to tell someone on monday "hey sorry I didn't have my shit together, but you know I don't have it together so we went to order the flooring today and the mill slaped a dollar a sq ft surcharge onto your floor order because the cost of russian birch ply went way the fuck up, the mill decided on wednesday to add that charge, so like it'll be 2k extra, but hey the flooring project was only 40k so what another 2 thousand"

  21. #12821
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    I'm following a few urban markets on the east coast and prices are not soft.

  22. #12822
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    You narrow it down any?

    I've been seeing some nice New York apartments come down, I was kinda vaguely scientifically interested in a few when my daughter was living there and put alerts on them in zillow and get notifications.

  23. #12823
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    oh and inflation
    just because it doesn't meet some scholar economics book writing proffessors standards to help define inflation
    it's been going on hard for two plus years now, slowly and surely, making some people bank and totally ass fucking other people
    no one wants to admit it

  24. #12824
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    Quote Originally Posted by ötzi View Post
    You narrow it down any?

    I've been seeing some nice New York apartments come down, I was kinda vaguely scientifically interested in a few when my daughter was living there and put alerts on them in zillow and get notifications.
    Boston and the Portland peninsula, primarily. Desirable areas of Boston proper are still starting at 1k/sf. Portland SFHs are understandably cheaper on a /sf basis but still gangbusters. A 5,600 sqft lot recently sold for 465k and another 3,500 sqft lot sold for 445k.

    This place was taken off the market a few months ago at either 800k or 900k. https://www.redfin.com/ME/Portland/2.../home/85748668

  25. #12825
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    Well Baltimore's still cheap!

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