Real Estate Crash thread

[Harry]

I understand what yer saying now, yes...no worries. I came in hot as usual, whoops. Helena has a lot to offer. Better weather, better biking, better prices than Bozeman...but I can't drive that far to ski, but that's just me. A mountain town without many skiers does sound like heaven though. Helena is a gem for certain types.

Helena has lift served skiing available today.

Bozeman does not.

Helena FTW.

[54-46]

This is ridiculous. In a town where the middle school is 65% Latino and 60% free/reduced lunch program, the median SFH sells for $1.1M after only 45 days in the market.

Photo of RE flyer a buddy sends out:

[Kevo]

This is ridiculous. In a town where the middle school is 65% Latino and 60% free/reduced lunch program, the median SFH sells for $1.1M after only 45 days in the market.

Photo of RE flyer a buddy sends out:

At those prices, the free/reduced luck program crowd won't be there in five years.

[4matic]

At those prices, the free/reduced luck program crowd won't be there in five years.

They will. 4-5-6 families living in single family rental or own. 10 people in a small 3 bedroom is not unusual around here.

[Kevo]

They will. 4-5-6 families living in single family rental or own. 10 people in a small 3 bedroom is not unusual around here.

Guess San Fran needs the working class to live somewhere.

[liv2ski]

They will. 4-5-6 families living in single family rental or own. 10 people in a small 3 bedroom is not unusual around here.

Damn, that is nutz. I would never rent to more than 4 people in a 3 bdrm unit. But I am not a slum lord either.

[dunfree]

Guess San Fran needs the working class to live somewhere.

the working class living somewhere else is already killing SF, now it's coming for the suburbs.

I've started to think of affordable housing as a benefit for the wealthy. There's a steady supply of service workers so they can get their triple-chai cold brew mocchachino, have some one tune their bike, a yoga instructor, and restaurant staff who actually perform. Without it you can't keep the services people want in the current job structures.

[glademaster]

Yup, 21st century feudalism.

[54-46]

The servsnt class lives in Richmond

[4matic]

The servsnt class lives in Richmond

That's the prison.. The help lives in Hayward and San Leandro.

[Kevo]

Btw- if any Front Range mags are looking for a house, my neighbor across the street in Golden is selling their 3br/3ba single family house for $500k. Great neighborhood and right next to lots of mountain biking.

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[54-46]

That's the prison.. The help lives in Hayward and San Leandro.

Seriously. My kid's teachers live in Richmond, Oakland. Novato, Santa Rosa (one lost her house in the fires), and Windsor.

[Danno]

Btw- if any Front Range mags are looking for a house, my neighbor across the street in Golden is selling their 3br/3ba single family house for $500k. Great neighborhood and right next to lots of mountain biking.

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I think I'd almost rather live in Golden right now, but it ain't happening.

[WTF is dat]

I think I'd almost rather live in Golden right now, but it ain't happening.

Best part of Golden is mountain biking access and being super close to I70. It’s like a 50 minute drive to go skiing from there.

One thing I don’t like about the town is the lack of trees and brown hills surrounding the town

[Danno]

Best part of Golden is mountain biking access and being super close to I70. It’s like a 50 minute drive to go skiing from there.

One thing I don’t like about the town is the lack of trees and brown hills surrounding the town

The crush of people is a little worse there. But those other benefits would be excellent. Still, I'd rather be able to tell the entire front range to fuck off. But it's unlikely to happen, I'm probably chained to the PRB until retirement.

[4matic]

Seriously. My kid's teachers live in Richmond, Oakland. Novato, Santa Rosa (one lost her house in the fires), and Windsor.

Like Oakland, Richmond has some really nice places to live.

[Kevo]

Best part of Golden is mountain biking access and being super close to I70. It’s like a 50 minute drive to go skiing from there.

One thing I don’t like about the town is the lack of trees and brown hills surrounding the town

My neighborhood backs up to open space with mountain biking right out of my garage. Once you get up into the trails there are trees, and my neighborhood has a lot of trees in it.

The crush of people is a little worse there. But those other benefits would be excellent. Still, I'd rather be able to tell the entire front range to fuck off. But it's unlikely to happen, I'm probably chained to the PRB until retirement.

Meh, I think you may be pleasantly surprised. I've really enjoyed getting to know the people here. There is a great crew of bikers and climbers and skiers and kayakers.

Golden has had a big transition from blue collar to white collar in the past ten years.

You could probably sell your house in Boulder, cash out the equity and come close to paying cash for the $500k house across the street from me. There's a good elementary school within walking distance as well.

[Toadman]

Seriously. My kid's teachers live in Richmond, Oakland. Novato, Santa Rosa (one lost her house in the fires), and Windsor.

My cousin just dropped $500k for a small 1,200 sq ft SFH in Richmond. It's the only thing they could afford. A fixer upper with a nice size backyard. Back in the day when I had to go visit for business, it was duck and cover . Get in take care of biz and get the hell out before dark. I think it's gotten slightly better as more poor DINK's making only $100k or less move into the area. In about a decade it will be the new Williamsburg, NY. Or it will blow up from some industrial accident by Chevron...

[Skistack]

My 3 cents

#1: yup, seems like the more money you have the more free time you have the bigger asshole nimby you are

#2 yup, dealing with planners is a joke, pretty much boils down to how many hand jobs you are willing to give and if they are having their period this week or not

#3 maybe, silverthorne has annexed whatever that land is outside of town, where they are buildling complete shit box 750k houses, can't remember the name, the development is a mess and I feel for whoever is buying those piles of crap, the developer then decided to build a village out there too, high density, shitty little local houses, all approved by the town of silverthorne, meanwhile silverthorne has been desperatly trying to build a "downtown" core. yet they go ahead and allow this crappy development three or so miles from downtown to happen, who the fuck is in charge of these decisions

#4 yup, High cost of construction, ha ha ha, people are fucking idtiots, the number of workers has shrunk so bad in the past few years it's unreal. No more mexicans immigrating, white kids don't want to work hard, cost of living in a ski town or commuting has shafted the average worker, and a majority of people moving to ski towns young and old don't have to work, I've got a bag of dicks on my payroll, way too many of them and they are actual employees none of this subcontractor bullshit, people shit their pants when they get a price from me, and I've had to explain how much labor costs and they still don't get it, they think some dickfag with a couple tools living in a mountain resort town should get 12 bucks an hr, It costs me $9.00 and change per hr per person right off the top before anything happens, so almost 500 dollars a day is pissed into the wind for all the bullshit, my lowest guy gets 25 an hr my highest paid guy gets 40 bucks an hr. payroll every two weeks is a nut, meanwhile I'm at home jerking off to porn on my computer

#4b&c permits, zoning, engineering, you name it is all part of the game, it's pretty basic stuff to me now, it's actually easy, step one, step two, step three, I've watched so many homeowner and "contractors" try to figure out the maze I start laughing, it's pretty simple, I can do it with my eyes closed now, people just shit themselves when I say 10k will get us started another 25k will cover my bullshit and then we can actually start doing something, for example my average 2 bath, 2-3 bedroom, one kitchen, 1500 sq ft full condo remodel runs 150k - 250k. Additions and houses go full retard. Was meeting with someone this summer and I started talking square foot costs, they both literally gasped for air, $75.00 sq ft is money just pissed away. I pride myself on being as expensive as I can but the results and process are top, for example I charge $20.00 sq ft for floor tile install minus the tile. Plus my 22% contractor mark up on top. Go buy a house in indiana if you can't afford it.

Need to smoke another bowl and drive around some more.

Just curious, what is your charge/sf for new construction?


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[fastfred]

Just curious, what is your charge/sf for new construction?


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$250.00 sq ft, I know some other people who won't touch anything for less than $300.00 Looking at one project where we don't want to go over 210 sq ft. It's almost impossible. But the long term payout would be great if it could be done

here is my price list per sq ft:

concrete 180.00 yard
aggregate/fill haul in or out 400 - 600 truck load
concrete flat work 7.00
concrete wall work 8.00
framing, siding, decks materials 30.00
framing, siding, deck labor 25 - 35
roofing 8 - 14
flooring 5 - 20
insulation 4- 12 (we do lots of spray foam and sound insulation
drywall 3-4
paint and stain 6.50 - 9.00
ext windows and doors replacement 1500 - 2500 each labor materials standard size andersen 100, andersen high end, or weathersheild
Int doors 600.00 each labor materials (no stain, kwik set lock)
base 8 -15 lf labor and materials no stain
cabinets 85.00 box, trim, crown, fill, knobs, toe kick extra
vanities 300 each for standard installlabor
tile 18 -22 sq ft (no tile included)
electric 10.00 sq ft min
plumbing new 5k a bathroom/kitchen/washer dryer rough only
plumbing boilers in floor heat 40 - 60 k
granite 85 sq ft
pack of shorties from urban roots w locals discount to get me through the day 12.50

[mogul5480]

Sure, there are still specific areas that have higher concentrations of negative equity but they are a relatively small percentage of the overall market, mainly due to price appreciation in the last 5yrs, especially in the hard hit areas you mention in south FL which benefited from a huge influx of foreign $ buying at distressed prices.

The NPL market is still sizable but the vast majority of that supply is coming from the GSEs and HUD. Most of the large national and super regional banks have long sold off their NPL loans and many are actually now buyers of distressed pools. Even the GSE pools (a couple totaling $3b+ sold recently) are steadily seeing current loan to values coming down in to the 80's where a year+ ago many of the government sales had values that were high 90's or 100%+. Same with the re-performing pools which are in very high demand for fund buyers due to the relatively low re-default rates and increasing securitization opportunities available.

I agree with your comment about affordable housing being an issue. Many who had the ability to buy in some of the heavily hit markets were able to get great deals but most did not have that luxury since loan standards were tightened so far that they shut out otherwise, qualified buyers. More first time buyers were forced to continue renting and will likely have trouble entering the market as rates rise in the future. Credit reform is something that has been needed for many years and we are finally starting to see new ways of evaluating a borrowers credit worthiness and not relying on the current scoring system that leaves the vast majority of Americans unable to enter the housing market because their scores are too low to qualify.

Agree that RPLs are def bid through the roof, but up until the last 6 months or so, I️ believe that the homes themselves (outside the few “story MSAs”) were still not doing great. South Florida is an interesting case - Miami was ripping if you were in a hot neighborhood, but the vast majority of NPLs were coming from LMI census tracts inland under a highway overpass. Don’t get me wrong - the financial institutions are very happy to roll forward the price of those homes at the Case Schiller index for the region so they can mark their books higher, or “BPO shop” for an “independent” valuation that supports an improved LTV, but good luck actually trying to sell that home for the value you want. I️ had a cab driver in Miami (which I was visiting, ironically enough, for a single family rental conference), who still owned 5 Low-end homes from the heyday and was still massively underwater on all of them.

Florida is the exception though - judicial state with possibly the worst bubble in ‘07. I️ agree with your general point.

Here’s my left field, counterintuitive theory on credit reform: once you raise rates and shrink the GSEs, you will actually create a more equitable playing field for non traditional borrowers like cash-rich immigrants, small business owners, etc. More diversity of lenders and lending business models + more room to earn yield by taking risk will mean more diversity for borrowers.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Int doors 600.00 each labor materials (no stain, kwik set lock)
base 8 -15 lf labor and materials no stain
cabinets 85.00 box, trim, crown, fill, knobs, toe kick extra

Let me know if you need any trim carpentry done. I can make you some money if those are the prices you charge.

My job site requirements are as follows: don't have hack framers and drywallers, everyone else gets out of our way, we run the stereo, it goes on at 7:30 and goes off once I can't read my tape straight anymore, metal, punk, or country only. Strongly suggest that you let me know when the homo is going to be on site.

[fastfred]

Let me know if you need any trim carpentry done. I can make you some money if those are the prices you charge.

My job site requirements are as follows: don't have hack framers and drywallers, everyone else gets out of our way, we run the stereo, it goes on at 7:30 and goes off once I can't read my tape straight anymore, metal, punk, or country only. Strongly suggest that you let me know when the homo is going to be on site.

No no no no

those are my prices, I pocket the rest. only pay out 140 - 160 a door hang and trim

base pays usually 3.50 - 4.50 labor

windows depend on the detail 80 - 220 a window

your music sounds ok, I don't care what anyone listens too, since I'm only on the job for ten mins a day, I do prefer not to hear any jam band music, hippie shit, greatful dead or fish. Usually guys who listen to that crap on my jobs don't last too long

no drugs or alcohol at work, sorry

unfortunatly my partner the designer half of the company is homosexual, so this may not work out for you, everyone calls him fancy pants, not sure why, but if I show up on the job everyone is like where is fancy pants today? My secretary is smoking hot so that might make up for it. let me know if this works you can contact me through my web site bonghitconstruction .com

[Kevo]

The 3/2 ranch house across the street from my house sold in a day for $35k above the $500k asking price. They got 8 offers in the first day.

The house is basically the same as my nextdoor neighbors house, which sold for $100k less 18 months ago.

The recently sold home is $20k more than I bought my house for a year ago. Mine is 4/3.5 with an extra 1k square feet and a much better view of the mountains.

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[Name Redacted]

Any opinion on how the elimination or reduction in mortgage interest deductions might affect the housing market? Could be the straw that breaks the camel's back around here. Could send 2nd homes into a tail spin in the NE, SoCal, and many resort towns across the west.