Real Estate Crash thread

[sirbumpsalot]

Actually, I have, in a few places, bitter boomer baby.

Speaking of bitter....if you go back to page one of this thread you will see this Benny character started this very thread in 2006 out of bitterness and 14yrs later.....nothing's changed.

[Danno]

And your home isn't an "investment". It's pretty shitty that way. Only people who are going to cash in on that "investment" are your kids.

It is an investment, just a unique one. Or rather it can and should be. It's not easy to evaluate performance, because unlike most investments, it's more than simply price paid versus sale price over years owned.

You also have to factor in the cost of the loan (but also the fact that someone loaned you money to invest) and the cost of rental housing. And yes, unlike most investments, you can't simply calculate return when you sell, because you need housing, so the replacement housing is also part of the calculus.

But savvy people understand this and make wise choices; not everyone got burned in 2008, which is not to say that only dumb people got burned in 2008. But the calculus for whether you got burned should be more complicated than "how much did my house lose in value".

[Name Redacted]

Or some people just get lucky when born into the right situation.

So, where exactly do you live?

Born into the right situation? Backwoods of Alabama? Yeah, that's the recipe for success right there.

I live exactly where I want to live. I've looked and looked for better spots, but I love where I'm at. Covid taught me to appreciate it even more.

[Skidog]

It is an investment, just a unique one. Or rather it can and should be. It's not easy to evaluate performance, because unlike most investments, it's more than simply price paid versus sale price over years owned.

You also have to factor in the cost of the loan (but also the fact that someone loaned you money to invest) and the cost of rental housing. And yes, unlike most investments, you can't simply calculate return when you sell, because you need housing, so the replacement housing is also part of the calculus.

But savvy people understand this and make wise choices; not everyone got burned in 2008, which is not to say that only dumb people got burned in 2008. But the calculus for whether you got burned should be more complicated than "how much did my house lose in value".

I bought in Utah in 2008. Got one of the last $0 down loans. Bought at just under $290K, sold around 10 years later for $365K. Not everyone got burned like mentioned.

[glademaster]

That seems like a shitty ROI given how hot the SLC real estate market is. Just sayin'.

[Benny Profane]

Born into the right situation? Backwoods of Alabama? Yeah, that's the recipe for success right there.

I live exactly where I want to live. I've looked and looked for better spots, but I love where I'm at. Covid taught me to appreciate it even more.

Where do you live? You know where I live.

[Ted Striker]

Londonderry's calling.

Rolling Lawns Magazine called it the best town of the 70s even though it wasn't released in America until 1980.

[Benny Profane]

Speaking of bitter....if you go back to page one of this thread you will see this Benny character started this very thread in 2006 out of bitterness and 14yrs later.....nothing's changed.

Really? After what happened after that first post? Wow, you win for moron of the day.

[AdironRider]

That seems like a shitty ROI given how hot the SLC real estate market is. Just sayin'.

Better than your ROI renting.

[ötzi]

That seems like a shitty ROI given how hot the SLC real estate market is. Just sayin'.

Well it was 2 years ago and that was a different market. Plus, he didn't have to pay rent, got a tax break, and lived where he wanted to be. And made money on the deal. Seems pretty okay to me.

[glademaster]

I was 19 and a freshman in college in 2008, so kind of a moot point.

[ötzi]

I can just picture young Glade glowering his way across the quad.

[glademaster]

I can just picture young Glade glowering his way across the Diag.

FIFY

[Timberridge]

I can just picture young Glade glowering his way across the quad.

On his way to becoming a bitter old man in his 30's.

[glademaster]

On his way to becoming a bitter old man in his 30's.

Once I hit 27 or 28, I came to the realization that if I didn't become a bitter old man this year, I would be one year older when I finally did.

[Skidog]

That seems like a shitty ROI given how hot the SLC real estate market is. Just sayin'.

Left 2 years ago

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[sirbumpsalot]

Really? After what happened after that first post? Wow, you win for moron of the day.

What is not true about what I posted?

[Danno]

Where do you live? You know where I live.

it's pretty well known that he lives in one of your locals spots, Summit Cty. He also has a place in Eagle, IIRC.

[Name Redacted]

it's pretty well known that he lives in one of your locals spots, Summit Cty. He also has a place in Eagle, IIRC.

Damn, I was going to say Londonderry.

[Skidog]

That seems like a shitty ROI given how hot the SLC real estate market is. Just sayin'.

Had I waited 1 more year probably would've been closer to $400k, but I don't waste time on money left on the table. We sold in 1 day. 13 showings, 12 offers, some higher than what we took, but we needed out and the cash deal was only 7k less than highest and super easy. Sold on June 5, closed June 25.

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[Toadman]

I remember how hard Bend got crushed last time around. Hopefully this time is different.

Went for a drive this past Saturday. New construction in SE Bend. Currently 3 new housing developments going up within a mile of each other. Drive over to NW Crossings, and new homes going up as part of the COCC affordable housing plan, which is actually pretty cool. We know the builder, (Cameron Curtis), so that's awesome to see.

Drive through Tetherow golf course, and new home after new home after new home going up. All over $1 million dollars. Then throw in the $15k-$25k membership fees...

Then drive past Eagle Crest, and new town homes from the $500k range going up faster than I could have imagined. A bit farther North on the golf course $650k-$1 million single family homes with great views of Smith Rock and Pilot Butte being built, with more land being excavated and those homes are selling as fast as they build them, or already pre-sold.

Then there's the multi-million dollar Westgate development, where we used to live just nearby. Million dollar 2+ acre lots, mostly all sold, and probably million dollar plus new home construction. With the million dollar views looking toward the Cascades. Next door, Tree Farm houses in all phases of construction. Those too are $500k-$700k just for a couple of acres, then you build your multi-million dollar dream retirement home. And I guess make sure you stay conservatively invested in the markets?

There's also pockets of new home construction going on around Awbrey Butte with million dollar homes being built.

I think it's somewhat different from the '08-'12 years. It's a lot of cash buyers, mostly retirees. There are some WFH types. I could see Bend becoming commuter central for WFH types for Silicon Valley and Seattle. It's mostly out of state money from Cali or WA coming in from the people we have met and from talks with some home builder folks we know. But, if things do turn down, it will hit Bend hard. There's an insane amount of construction jobs that will just evaporate. I would say much more so than the back in the Great Recession.

But like they say, get the goods while the getting's good! Or something like that.

[glademaster]

Left 2 years ago

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Had I waited 1 more year probably would've been closer to $400k, but I don't waste time on money left on the table. We sold in 1 day. 13 showings, 12 offers, some higher than what we took, but we needed out and the cash deal was only 7k less than highest and super easy. Sold on June 5, closed June 25.

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I was just giving you some shit, but if it got your hackles up enough to quote my post twice, then I guess it's worth pointing out that you left Utah for Goshen, NY, a fate arguably worse than Hardcore's.

Once again, just giving you some shit, but feel free to get yourself worked into a lather. I'm going skiing after work today.

[Timberridge]

Why do you care Glade?

Perhaps he wanted to be closer to a Legoland.

[Toadman]

Had I waited 1 more year probably would've been closer to $400k, but I don't waste time on money left on the table. We sold in 1 day. 13 showings, 12 offers, some higher than what we took, but we needed out and the cash deal was only 7k less than highest and super easy. Sold on June 5, closed June 25.

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Awesome news! Good for you Skidog.

[Skidog]

I was just giving you some shit, but if it got your hackles up enough to quote my post twice, then I guess it's worth pointing out that you left Utah for Goshen, NY, a fate arguably worse than Hardcore's.

Yeah well I know I left a "paradise" for Goshen, NY, but...family...and im not riled up just answered before i saw others recalled it was 2 years ago. We actually did pretty good as the marekt was just upticking at the time. I just wanted to point out that we all know that we can't predict the market. If i could I wouldve surely stayed another year... I miss it a lot, but there are some nice things about Goshen. Skiing aint one though...