Real Estate Crash thread

[Ted Striker]

Bubbles.

so we're all going to be living in a shed?

[Dantheman]

nobody* is currently getting fucked, all low-wage furloughed workers are getting more in unemployment than their wages typically are.

While I've been fortunate enough to never have to use UI benefits, I am fairly certain this is not how UI works.

[muted]

nobody* is currently getting fucked, all low-wage furloughed workers are getting more in unemployment than their wages typically are. By the time summer hits, when 12 weeks of additional payments end, things will look very different. And at that point we will probably have some level of white collar layoffs at that point, whether they are massive(10% of white collar of workforce or more) before the virus after-effects of the virus are done I'm not going to predict. I'm guessing that's where the benchmark for a housing market discount approximately lies.

*excluding college students and very young people that haven't even worked for 2 quarters to qualify for unemployment and under the table paid people maybe some uber drivers. I'm very confused who the grocery stores are hiring right now, they are basically limited to teenagers as their labor pool for very short-term.

And the 25? million non-citizens who can't get a dime from the government. I would say you are on optimist on "all low-wage furloughed workers are getting more in unemployment than their wages typically are" but I hope you are somewhat right. Shit is getting real complicated for people.

[fastfred]

While I've been fortunate enough to never have to use UI benefits, I am fairly certain this is not how UI works.

agreed unemployment doesn't pay shit 1/3 - 2/3 of regular wages

[liv2ski]

What I find so disheartening in all this is family's not in a financial position to help each other out. My adult kids will always be welcome in our home for a week or years, but so many people don't have that to fall back on if their situation gets really ugly. I try to never complain, as I know how fuckin lucky we are. People need places to live. I hope RE values tank, but I am not holding my breath for that to happen in San Diego.

[concretejungle]

nobody* is currently getting fucked, all low-wage furloughed workers are getting more in unemployment than their wages typically are. By the time summer hits, when 12 weeks of additional payments end, things will look very different. And at that point we will probably have some level of white collar layoffs at that point, whether they are massive(10% of white collar of workforce or more) before the virus after-effects of the virus are done I'm not going to predict. I'm guessing that's where the benchmark for a housing market discount approximately lies.

*excluding college students and very young people that haven't even worked for 2 quarters to qualify for unemployment and under the table paid people maybe some uber drivers. I'm very confused who the grocery stores are hiring right now, they are basically limited to teenagers as their labor pool for very short-term.

Cool, you live in Montana. Send me all the money I’m supposed to get from UI and I’ll pay you back when the government money shows up in my account.

Feel free to call my small business owner employer and ask him why he didn’t apply for the PPP loan because I sure as fuck would like to know as well.


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[gravitylover]

nobody* is currently getting fucked, all low-wage furloughed workers are getting more in unemployment than their wages typically are. By the time summer hits, when 12 weeks of additional payments end, things will look very different. And at that point we will probably have some level of white collar layoffs at that point, whether they are massive(10% of white collar of workforce or more) before the virus after-effects of the virus are done I'm not going to predict. I'm guessing that's where the benchmark for a housing market discount approximately lies.

*excluding college students and very young people that haven't even worked for 2 quarters to qualify for unemployment and under the table paid people maybe some uber drivers. I'm very confused who the grocery stores are hiring right now, they are basically limited to teenagers as their labor pool for very short-term.

I am getting completely fucked. Both myself and my wife are self employed and can't file for UI. She sells handmade clothing at craft fairs and a few pieces here and there on Etsy, there are no craft fairs now so zero income. I'm a sales rep that can't travel and most of the businesses I sell to are closed or barely operating so no commissions. I can't claim ui on commissions because they fluctuate so much and last year I lost 5 months after a heart attack so earned next to nothing and only took a few distributions, no income to file against means I can't file. Yup fucked and damn near broke, we're down to a few weeks then we're tapped out.

[4matic]

Self employed supposed to be able to access UI benefit

[Conundrum]

agreed unemployment doesn't pay shit 1/3 - 2/3 of regular wages

The CARES act is adding $600/week for up to 12 weeks on top of state benefits.

https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20200404

So, if you make $10/hr, you'll probably see about $200/week in unemployment in my home state. Feds kick in another $600 so you're now at $800 week. You were making $400/week when you were working. Some people are going to double their income in unemployment. I think Idaho caps out around $400/wk max benefit. So, those up to $20-25/hr working should be close to whole for 12 weeks.

But, whether or not individual state unemployment offices can process claims fast enough and the Feds can actually get the money to people is another question. Plus, many problems qualifying for benefits too. And, is 12 weeks enough? Who knows?

[gravitylover]

Self employed supposed to be able to access UI benefit

Accountant says no because no taxable claimed income from 2019

[concretejungle]

The CARES act is adding $600/week for up to 12 weeks on top of state benefits.

https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20200404

So, if you make $10/hr, you'll probably see about $200/week in unemployment in my home state. Feds kick in another $600 so you're now at $800 week. You were making $400/week when you were working. Some people are going to double their income in unemployment. I think Idaho caps out around $400/wk max benefit. So, those up to $20-25/hr working should be close to whole for 12 weeks.

But, whether or not individual state unemployment offices can process claims fast enough and the Feds can actually get the money to people is another question. Plus, many problems qualifying for benefits too. And, is 12 weeks enough? Who knows?

Correct but good luck trying to figure out where in the line you are or talking to anyone about your claim. I don't need the money in my account I just want to know that I'll be getting it sometime so I can have a plan.

[Benny Profane]

nobody* is currently getting fucked, all low-wage furloughed workers are getting more in unemployment than their wages typically are. By the time summer hits, when 12 weeks of additional payments end, things will look very different. And at that point we will probably have some level of white collar layoffs at that point, whether they are massive(10% of white collar of workforce or more) before the virus after-effects of the virus are done I'm not going to predict. I'm guessing that's where the benchmark for a housing market discount approximately lies.

*excluding college students and very young people that haven't even worked for 2 quarters to qualify for unemployment and under the table paid people maybe some uber drivers. I'm very confused who the grocery stores are hiring right now, they are basically limited to teenagers as their labor pool for very short-term.

Wow. Have you seen pictures of the auto food lines? You're obviously not a restaurant owner.

Upper class white people making comments from their zoom bubble.

[Mokomahonah]

The CARES act is adding $600/week for up to 12 weeks on top of state benefits.

https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20200404

So, if you make $10/hr, you'll probably see about $200/week in unemployment in my home state. Feds kick in another $600 so you're now at $800 week. You were making $400/week when you were working. Some people are going to double their income in unemployment. I think Idaho caps out around $400/wk max benefit. So, those up to $20-25/hr working should be close to whole for 12 weeks.

But, whether or not individual state unemployment offices can process claims fast enough and the Feds can actually get the money to people is another question. Plus, many problems qualifying for benefits too. And, is 12 weeks enough? Who knows?

And CA pays 50% of highest quarter wages up to $450. As stated with the cheetos stimulus pill, UI now pays that and an addition $600, per week. Now that's not enough to buy a house with, but its definatly more than most (60%) made per week in California in 2018. (According to https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-...te-calculator/)

Cant agree with it "dosent pay shit". Before all this UI payed close to minimum wage in California just to look for work. Now it pays up to $26.25/hr for a 40 hr week to look for work. There's probably alot of people that are in the 22.5 to 26.25 $/hr bracket who dont have much incentive to take a job that pays less than they make to look for something better. Plus opportunity cost, how much more money do you need to actually accept work if you make close to the same but have no free time?

As far as 12 additional weeks, not sure on the specifics but once unemployment rate goes high enough don't benefits get extended to 52 weeks?

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[Benny Profane]

And CA pays 50% of highest quarter wages up to $450. As stated with the cheetos stimulus pill, UI now pays that and an addition $600, per week. Now that's not enough to buy a house with, but its definatly more than most (60%) made per week in California in 2018. (According to https://dqydj.com/income-percentile-...te-calculator/)

Cant agree with it "dosent pay shit". Before all this UI payed close to minimum wage in California just to look for work. Now it pays up to $26.25/hr for a 40 hr week to look for work. There's probably alot of people that are in the 22.5 to 26.25 $/hr bracket who dont have much incentive to take a job that pays less than they make to look for something better. Plus opportunity cost, how much more money do you need to actually accept work if you make close to the same but have no free time?

As far as 12 additional weeks, not sure on the specifics but once unemployment rate goes high enough don't benefits get extended to 52 weeks?

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What the fuck. There's no jobs out there. Maybe 25-30 % UE soon. How the fuck can anybody even find a job?

[wolfelot]

I’m not seeing how this won’t impact all levels of residential real estate. Different markets and market segments may be impacted differently, but all seem primed to take a big negative hit. I think it is more of a question of is it being 10% in some market’s segment or 45% in another. Where will the bottom be and when?

[klauss]

Just got blasted with an ad for the Village at Tamarack. Unfortunate timing

FULLY FURNISHED RESIDENCES STARTING IN THE $500’S.

https://villageattamarack.com/

[Conundrum]

Just got blasted with an ad for the Village at Tamarack. Unfortunate timing



https://villageattamarack.com/

They've held strong with this campaign since the first of the year. I'm still getting two emails per week on ski condos starting in the $500s. It was actually starting to look like a real base area. Still a ways to go but better than tyvek towers that have been there for the last 12 years. I don't know if that place will ever catch a break.

[Toadman]

What the fuck. There's no jobs out there. Maybe 25-30 % UE soon. How the fuck can anybody even find a job?

Some folks are going to have to lower their standards on the job type, me thinks. The more manual type of work. I hear Amazon is hiring.

[Toadman]

Not seeing any drop in rental rates here in Bend.

This is a typical rental https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...14333513_zpid/

[4matic]

Up to a year in unrestricted forbearance should keep forced sales off the market for some time.

[Kevo]

Up to a year in unrestricted forbearance should keep forced sales off the market for some time.

And put mortgage servicers out of business.

[4matic]

Somebody wins. Somebody loses.

[liv2ski]

And put mortgage servicers out of business.

God damn, no wonder the mortgage business is getting so wonky. Servicer's don't want to buy anything but cream of the crop loans now.

[Timberridge]

What the fuck. There's no jobs out there. Maybe 25-30 % UE soon. How the fuck can anybody even find a job?

Why do you care? With your stable retirement income, you just automatically moved up several social classes now.

[liv2ski]

Why do you care? With your stable retirement income, you just automatically moved up several social classes now.

Yup, Benny will have some hawt sorority girls servicing his every need soon.