Real Estate Crash thread

[Stu Gotz]

This is an interesting Twitter thread. Basically, if you expect things to slow down, you might be waiting for a bit. Loans are still high quality and homes just aren’t being built fast enough.

https://mobile.twitter.com/modestpro...46234117451779

[Toadman]

The tiny home thing seems to have been successful after a few years. It seems like almost a comical solution, but that's where it's at in this valley. The dirt pimps did $4.6B in business in 2021. In a town of "7,000 people"...

$300 is definitely low low and they must be including Snowmass rooms in the mix (not sure that "HomeToGo" is a strong data source for that article?). If you're looking at Aspen proper, I would guess the average is close to $800+ at this point in Aspen proper. This past July the average rate for one night at a lodge was $668 and in August it was $609, with accommodations "down" ~10% compared to pre-pandemic. There were a few points where it averaged about $1,000/night.

I just can't comprehend some of the nightly rates I've seen just doing a random search in February for lodging. I mean there are some very swanky hotels in Aspen, and most are 4 figure sums per night. I mean we are talking some serious higher rollers that can drop $7 grand on a one bdrm suite in Aspen. Even Snowmass has gotten into the high roller game with $500-$800/night lodging.

But it does seem like Aspen Snowmass realized that if they didn't do something about housing for its employees, they would not be able to open for business.

[BCMtnHound]

Did the rate not adjust down to compensate for the higher value or they just spending like drunken sailors? A 30 plus percent increase in actual tax dollar spending for a county or town would usually have the old guard raising their canes in the streets.

The assessment went up. Still need to see what the actual taxation will come out at. Like you alluded to, just because the assessments went up across the board doesn't justify the same increase in the actual property tax.

But I wouldn't hold my breath that before the new rates come out, local council doesn't vote to increase their own compensation

[climberevan]

Interesting read.

A 6 acre lot and they are bragging about being able to house 120 people? What a joke. Build a fucking apartment block. Density is the answer to our housing (and to some extent, environmental) woes.

[Yukonrider]

A 6 acre lot and they are bragging about being able to house 120 people? What a joke. Build a fucking apartment block. Density is the answer to our housing (and to some extent, environmental) woes.

That would ruin the 'soul of the town'

But oh my god have you heard about this housing crisis? Someone has to DO something. *votes down apartment building proposal* "it just doesn't fit in here"

What really gets me going about this whole 'housing crisis' is it has been created almost entirely at the local level. My town has been making noise about this issue for a year or so now (were often late to the game).
Someone just put a proposal together to build some type of affordable housing (NOT a project style thing tiny home type things) in an unused piece of land near a hospital. It got STRONGLY voted down. People came out afterwards filled with joy that it got crushed. It was a really good proposal on a site that won't be able to fit anything else in a spot close to town, now what will it do, sit?
And then everyone will pay for the city to put together studies as to why there is no housing.

[alpinevibes]

I just can't comprehend some of the nightly rates I've seen just doing a random search in February for lodging. I mean there are some very swanky hotels in Aspen, and most are 4 figure sums per night. I mean we are talking some serious higher rollers that can drop $7 grand on a one bdrm suite in Aspen. Even Snowmass has gotten into the high roller game with $500-$800/night lodging.

But it does seem like Aspen Snowmass realized that if they didn't do something about housing for its employees, they would not be able to open for business.

It's a different reality... On top of a single room, someone's spending $1000+ pp for a flight here, $1000pp per day for lift ticket+rentals+group lesson (private is $945 pp), food+drink+shopping another $500pp per day. Easy for a "standard" hotel-staying family of four to swipe through $30k to stay in a room, ski four days, eat out and shop a bit.

A 6 acre lot and they are bragging about being able to house 120 people? What a joke. Build a fucking apartment block. Density is the answer to our housing (and to some extent, environmental) woes.

Yeah, it's a solution of sorts but still kinda chuckle-worthy in the larger scope. But the nimby-ism is pretty extreme here, no surprise.

They just built a building 20mi downvalley, adding 150 beds - https://www.aspentimes.com/news/maki...sing-shortage/

[Bunion 2020]

And then everyone will pay for the city to put together studies as to why there is no housing.

Sure you don't live in Bozeman?

One of the biggest villains in the area (Cross Harbor) is building a shit ton of housing. Why? Because they can't get enough employees otherwise.

[frosted flakes]

$300 is definitely low low

I’m not vouching for home to go (never heard of it), but it sounds like their number is per person and the other numbers in this thread are per room. So you can probably double their number at least to get a per room rate.

[alpinevibes]

I’m not vouching for home to go (never heard of it), but it sounds like their number is per person and the other numbers in this thread are per room. So you can probably double their number at least to get a per room rate.

Yes yes, good eye tiger!

[dan_pdx]

3 bedroom Rambler in the Happy Valley Neighborhood. This home borders the Happy Valley Park to the back of the property and west side. Large 12,400 sf flat lot with an open back yard. This home has solid bones and is in need of some well deserved cosmetic TLC.

If "cosmetic TLC" means "nuke it from space and behead the remains" then I agree.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15835947

[dunfree]

I find the balls of the listers including these pics impressive

[dan_pdx]

I find the balls of the listers including these pics impressive

Yeah, I think this has to be a teardown, split the lot, throw up two HGTV houses kind of play. I can't imagine anyone wanting to rehab this house.

[El Chupacabra]

3 bedroom Rambler in the Happy Valley Neighborhood. This home borders the Happy Valley Park to the back of the property and west side. Large 12,400 sf flat lot with an open back yard. This home has solid bones and is in need of some well deserved cosmetic TLC.

If "cosmetic TLC" means "nuke it from space and behead the remains" then I agree.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15835947

It has curb appeal.

As in, the curb is the closest I want to get to it.

[Falcon3]

It has curb appeal.

As in, the curb is the closest I want to get to it.

How far can bedbugs travel?

That mattress is scary.

[JimmyCarter]

How far can bedbugs travel?

That mattress is scary.

Comes with a free blanket, free towel, and free Hep C!

[dunfree]

Yeah, I think this has to be a teardown, split the lot, throw up two HGTV houses kind of play. I can't imagine anyone wanting to rehab this house.

Even if you rehab it, who’d buy it when you can see that shit before hand? There’s a place near me that’d been lesser inhabited for years and sold in the fall, listing had 4 pictures, none of them decent interior shots, they’ve had crews for months, a flatbed full of lumber. Etc etc. full redo. that’s the way to market . Gonna list for >$2 million

[Shredhead]

It’s a nice lot, that backs up to a park.

But there’s a trailer park and what I would assume is Section 8 housing right across the trail.

[Shredhead]

Even Snowmass has gotten into the high roller game with $500-$800/night lodging.

I haven’t been in the Wildwood in quite some time.
But they have rooms this MLK weekend for $300/night. Not really too bad for almost ski on/out.
Slopes were deserted today.

[Yukonrider]

That place isn't too bad looking needs a new roof, but most of the other stuff LOOKS cosmetic. Floors, paint, a few small drywall repairs.

Oh, and get it meth tested first...

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

Was just on a zoom call with a broker from Bellevue. An agent in her office had a listing last week with 33 offers that went for 800k over asking. The insanity continues.

[fatnslow]

That place isn't too bad looking needs a new roof, but most of the other stuff LOOKS cosmetic. Floors, paint, a few small drywall repairs.

Oh, and get it meth tested first...

Don't forget about the sweet palm tree and it looks to border a greenway/park. The meth is actually an added bonus as in the "instant equity" described in the listing. It isn't everyday you can buy a house with a turn key business for $550k these days.

[Benny Profane]

A 6 acre lot and they are bragging about being able to house 120 people? What a joke. Build a fucking apartment block. Density is the answer to our housing (and to some extent, environmental) woes.

A "big extent" for environmental woes. Nothing contributes more to our energy and waste water problems than America's massive suburban and vacation home sprawl.

[Toadman]

Parents just made an offer on a 1980's split level 3k sq. foot house with .5 acre lot in Lakewood, CO. Asking was $750k. It had 34 offers, but there's is all cash and gave the widow owner a quick closing assuming nothing major found on the home inspection. I don't know what their final offer price was but believe it was at least $50k over asking. Most likely their RE agent made that recommendation based on what's going on in that area.

[skaredshtles]

Parents just made an offer on a 1980's split level 3k sq. foot house with .5 acre lot in Lakewood, CO.

Why are they looking at such a large house? Presumably it's just the two of them?

[Name Redacted]

Parents just made an offer on a 1980's split level 3k sq. foot house with .5 acre lot in Lakewood, CO. Asking was $750k. It had 34 offers, but there's is all cash and gave the widow owner a quick closing assuming nothing major found on the home inspection. I don't know what their final offer price was but believe it was at least $50k over asking. Most likely their RE agent made that recommendation based on what's going on in that area.

Sounds about right. We are 50/50 buyers and have still been skunked on a few offers in Eagle County. Crazy competitive out there right now. Not as fun as being a seller I'll tell ya that!