Real Estate Crash thread

[4matic]

The fed doesn’t set long term interest rates. They can influence with policy and actions but the market determines long term rates. That is the risk. If the longer market detaches. That’s probably why Fed continues expanding the balance sheet a trillion dollars a year.

[liv2ski]

Not sure boomers dying off does much, as most children will happily inherit the properties. As far as NIMBY is concerned, human nature runs down that path. Millennials are buying and gentrifying previously sketchy areas that are more affordable. I would agree that many will want an ADU in a big back yard to help make ends meet, BUT tearing everything down to build high rise condos? No one I have spoke to supports that in their hood. High density is on very few peoples want list.

[XXX-er]

right now its the Boomers doing the inheriting IME when a parent dies their property usually has to be sold so the proceeds can be split up if there is > one sibling cuz no body has enough $ to buy it outright and they are usually in danger of fighting over the money, even 1 kid will usually sell the place

[summit]

The shortage is of certain types of properties in certain areas, but not really total housing units in the nation. People aren't really living on the street against their will who would otherwise be purchasing a SFH. #vanlifers are by choice

But that is precisely why having corps buy SFHs to turn into rentals is horrific.

[Skidog]

when a parent dies their property usually has to be sold so the proceeds can be split up if there is > one sibling cuz no body has enough $ to buy it outright and right now its the Boomers doing the inheriting

even if there is only 1 kid i think they usually sell

I'd agree most times both kids (or one) already has a place and the cash is much more appealing. Especially in the current market.

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[Ted Striker]

The shortage is of certain types of properties in certain areas, but not really total housing units in the nation. People aren't really living on the street against their will who would otherwise be purchasing a SFH.

But people are renting against their will.

[XXX-er]

I'd agree most times both kids (or one) already has a place and the cash is much more appealing. Especially in the current market.

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more to it than that, often if the children couldn't or didn't convince the parents to down size and clean up all the loose ends the executor/ children are dealing with a fucking mess and I am seeing/hearing about it now with the 60 ish kids of parents who have died or are slowly dying.

with my mother it was all neat n tidey both with the possessions and the finances but i have heard horror storeys where the family just rented a construction dumpster to fill with houshold stuff nobody wanted and financialy there was a real mess

edit: Anybody reading this with living parents I strongly suggest you think seriously about tying up the loose ends now, fortunately my sister was a senior banker and made it all go smooth

[XXX-er]

But people are renting against their will.

Is that like paying a mortgage against their will ?

[54-46]

right now its the Boomers doing the inheriting IME when a parent dies their property usually has to be sold so the proceeds can be split up if there is > one sibling cuz no body has enough $ to buy it outright and they are usually in danger of fighting over the money, even 1 kid will usually sell the place

Yes. IME late Boomers and early Gen Xers are losing their parents, then they sell the house because they: a) want $; b) don’t want to fix it up and live there; and/or c) have multiple siblings and so cannot divide a SFH.

[CascadeLuke]

"but this time is different!"
/s

When the Fed raises the interest rate, I bet it will pop the balloon. Great time to be house shopping!

The best is when I hear that we don’t have junk loans anymore, so no problems brewing..

I’d respect the hell out of you for renting in the next short term. Wasn’t it you who’s trying to find a groovy recreational type area while commuting to Bellevue. .? What a better way than to try that circumstance out while the market drops. Pinpoint yourself over that time period.
I’ve never been emotional about a property that I’ve owned and always looked to make moves climbing the latter. Now we’ve got a forever place which is great but damn I’m partly bummed I couldn’t list two months ago and make an obscene amount of money off the last 16 mo’s of ownership and parlay that into a hitter on the flip side. Mark it down - it’s about to happen!

[Danno]

The best is when I hear that we don’t have junk loans anymore, so no problems brewing..

Well, we don't have the same problem with loans that we did in 2008. So when people say things like "it feels like 2008" and predict a crash, I'm skeptical. We do have some serious systemic problems that go beyond the mortgage and housing market, and maybe there will be a crash of some kind because of that. But when people are buying things with all cash, or coming up with lots of cash to make up for any appraisal gap, as is happening just about everywhere, it's hard to believe someone when they point to 2008 as some evidence of a crash coming here.

That said, my house is getting listed next week so here's hoping you're right on the crash thing.

[Kinnikinnick]

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justi...ation-realtors

Today the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division filed a notice of withdrawal of consent to a proposed settlement with the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The department has also filed to voluntarily dismiss its complaint without prejudice. The department determined that the settlement will not adequately protect the department’s rights to investigate other conduct by NAR that could impact competition in the real estate market and may harm home sellers and home buyers. The department is taking this action to permit a broader investigation of NAR’s rules and conduct to proceed without restriction.

“The proposed settlement will not sufficiently protect the Antitrust Division’s ability to pursue future claims against NAR,” said Acting Assistant Attorney General Richard A. Powers of the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division. “Real estate is central to the American economy and consumers pay billions of dollars in real estate commissions every year. We cannot be bound by a settlement that prevents our ability to protect competition in a market that profoundly affects Americans’ financial well-being.”

Kill that organization that’s only purpose has seemingly been to con consumers into thinking that RealtorsTM are what they need.


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[CascadeLuke]

People love to blame the ‘loan type’ of the 2000s instead of their greed to live above their means and the fomo wave they were riding. Consumer debt is all time and fomo is a raging. Euphoric spending will come crashing..
As far as cash buyers I’d contend it’s not as cashy as it all seems. People pulling their stock accounts because they see that market bubble combined with huge gains from proceeds in a higher priced area, are looking flush. And I’m not really arguing that. It’s just not like they’re pulling from savings they’ve accumulated.
Being in the industry I see people taping all their equity in their primary house and strutting over and making a cash offer on a second home or investment property- then cash out refinancing the new one. High on the hog with all the ‘free money’ as they say.

[fastfred]

People love to blame the ‘loan type’ of the 2000s instead of their greed to live above their means and the fomo wave they were riding. Consumer debt is all time and fomo is a raging. Euphoric spending will come crashing..
As far as cash buyers I’d contend it’s not as cashy as it all seems. People pulling their stock accounts because they see that market bubble combined with huge gains from proceeds in a higher priced area, are looking flush. And I’m not really arguing that. It’s just not like they’re pulling from savings they’ve accumulated.
Being in the industry I see people taping all their equity in their primary house and strutting over and making a cash offer on a second home or investment property- then cash out refinancing the new one. High on the hog with all the ‘free money’ as they say.

you pretty much said the truth yes there are people with real cash 30-40% maybe the rest is all funny money

Well, we don't have the same problem with loans that we did in 2008. So when people say things like "it feels like 2008" and predict a crash, I'm skeptical. We do have some serious systemic problems that go beyond the mortgage and housing market, and maybe there will be a crash of some kind because of that. But when people are buying things with all cash, or coming up with lots of cash to make up for any appraisal gap, as is happening just about everywhere, it's hard to believe someone when they point to 2008 as some evidence of a crash coming here.

That said, my house is getting listed next week so here's hoping you're right on the crash thing.

it's 2007 all over again just alittle different I could go get a 100k heloc tomorrow and piss it all away and not do one thing to improve my home with that money which I'm guessing was the point of the loan maybe?

and DUUUUDE wtf are you doing? weld county greeley? pueblo? boulders like summit once you sell your done no going back

[TAFKALVS]

There's a town up here, poisoned by asbestos, with no jobs, no nearby airport, 3 hours from the nearest real city... houses that were $100k 6 months ago have been driven up to $400 - $500k. Out of state speculation, site unseen buying, "flipping"... its all there.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

There's a town up here, poisoned by asbestos, with no jobs, no nearby airport, 3 hours from the nearest real city... houses that were $100k 6 months ago have been driven up to $400 - $500k. Out of state speculation, site unseen buying, "flipping"... its all there.

I wouldn’t live in Libby if you bought me a $500k house. I’m not sure I would visit.


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[TAFKALVS]

I wouldn’t live in Libby if you bought me a $500k house. I’m not sure I would visit.


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Like most places, there's good and bad. It was way more good when you could buy a house for cheap, now it doesn't make sense to pay Sandpoint prices for a place that is inferior in just about every way.

[MagnificentUnicorn]

Like most places, there's good and bad. It was way more good when you could buy a house for cheap, now it doesn't make sense to pay Sandpoint prices for a place that is inferior in just about every way.

That and the National Forest surrounding town and the mine site is an EPA Superfund site.


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[yeahman]

If houses in fricking Libby, MT are 400-500k, that's as sure a sign as you can ask for that we're in a major pandemic RE bubble. I already see signs it's receding though. People listing high now might get lucky or they might be too late.

[TAFKALVS]

If houses in fricking Libby, MT are 400-500k, that's as sure a sign as you can ask for that we're in a major pandemic RE bubble. I already see signs it's receding though. People listing high now might get lucky or they might be too late.

Yep, and from what I've heard the houses being bought aren't even being occupied, it's speculative buying from people out of the area who hear CDA and Kalispell are hot markets and see that Libby is inbetween and cheap. Locals spit shining and dumping houses that were unwanted and $70k just a couple years ago on wannabe Robert Kiyosaki's. They must have found a secret, right?

If it pops, there's going to be a lot of self proclaimed "Real Estate Investors" left holding the bag, with a ton of leverage exposure as Luke noted.

[Mokomahonah]

My pops sent me this. Unfortunately it's not ironic. Both parents have overflowing garages and extra rooms full of a lifetimes worth of stuff. My only sibling is viewing the euro thread, so he (probably) won't be much help.
Even the nice memorable things in their houses I wouldn't know what to do with.


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[CascadeLuke]

I was selling/sold my sports car and had joined the exotic car groups on FB to get a sense of the market and drop my listing in there. It was appalling. Youngish johnny hotshots buying Ferrari’s and Porsche’s at top of market on 144 month loans. One dealer asking $285k laid out the 144 mo loan terms in his sale post. It knocked me off my feet. Made a comment that if you needed that long maybe you can’t afford the car. Got an avalanche of dudes saying I just don’t get it - moneys free right now. Terms were 10% down and 6.25% for 144. Holee shit. Other comments were: yah we wouldn’t carry the loan that long, it’s the best way to have a cheap payment- roll the car for a year then upgrade. As if perpetually paying sales tax on exotics is money smart.
But, I bet their IG was hella fresh

[SKIP IN7RO]

Mortgage-bot 144 mo is 12 years

[dan_pdx]

The best is when I hear that we don’t have junk loans anymore, so no problems brewing..

I’d respect the hell out of you for renting in the next short term. Wasn’t it you who’s trying to find a groovy recreational type area while commuting to Bellevue. .? What a better way than to try that circumstance out while the market drops. Pinpoint yourself over that time period.
I’ve never been emotional about a property that I’ve owned and always looked to make moves climbing the latter. Now we’ve got a forever place which is great but damn I’m partly bummed I couldn’t list two months ago and make an obscene amount of money off the last 16 mo’s of ownership and parlay that into a hitter on the flip side. Mark it down - it’s about to happen!

Yeah, that was me and we pretty much settled on Bellingham. Mrs. PDX and I have been talking about it, and we would actually prefer renting, at least initially, but we've found the rental market in Bellingham is almost as challenging as the RE market -- at least, if you don't want a house that's been rented to students for decades. So we're kind of looking for something that works for us, and it could be either a rental or a purchase.

We were pretty taken with this house - tiny, but great location and sited on the lot in a way that would make it easy to fit on an addition or build a separate ADU: https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15812941

Our RE agent said it would probably go for around $650k, implying we shouldn't waste everyone's time offering anything close to asking price. I'm not good at math, but I believe that comes out to more than $650/square foot. If someone wants it that much, they're welcome to it. We're talking about a house where the bedrooms are too small to fit both a queen bed and a dresser, imagine how you're going to feel after winning that bidding war.

[dan_pdx]

I wouldn’t live in Libby if you bought me a $500k house. I’m not sure I would visit.


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IDK, seems like a great place to visit, I'm planning on dropping by to ride Turner in 2022 - https://montuckyclearcut.com/. But hell no to paying $500k for a house there.