Real Estate Crash thread

[nest]

bit harsh on Ben affleck

dunfree made a joke?!???!!

[Bunion 2020]

That 7.3 mil project wasn't in the Y/C. Lowly Spanish Peaks, 7.3 mil won't get you a lot in the Y/C anymore.

[rideit]

Oh, I know that, 7.5 won’t get you ‘much’ in BZN city limits, either!

[ötzi]

dunfree made a joke?!???!!

I'd say it's more of a witticism but still, right?

[Foggy_Goggles]

Winners and losers. 20 or 30somethings that managed to scratch together a downpayment 15 years ago were able to get on the real estate train. Being 20 or 30something now, not so much. Around here, small business owners that busted ass have done OK. Paycheck wage slaves, not so much.

I haven't heard about and projects getting the plug pulled...yet. For better or for worse, the not so rich second homo can cover there current payment for STRs. The truly rich, are building new homes with cash. Believe it or not, even with as expensive as new builds are, the 3-5k sq. ft. homes that I work on and getting finished with 20-30% instant equity.

I'd say the one to watch is land prices. Its a really expensive buy & hold proposition. People tend to buy lots as a speculative place holder to the future and right now they are at crazy prices. It seems this is where the downturn always hits first.

[RoooR]

I guess I'm just a lot less nostalgic for empty storefronts, crumbling abandoned houses and businesses getting away with paying under $9.00 an hour.

[dunfree]

Why be nostalgic for opportunity when you’ve made it, pt 235792 in a thread

[skaredshtles]

I guess I'm just a lot less nostalgic for empty storefronts, crumbling abandoned houses and businesses getting away with paying under $9.00 an hour.

You do realize that it's a continuum, right? Not "either/or"...

[AdironRider]

You guys can't be serious that long time ski town locals are magically getting WFH tech jobs and being able to afford houses. Those are all recent transplants.

Unless you are just part of the wave and consider your friends who moved there three years ago the lucky ones. Then yeah sure, lucky them.....

[RoooR]

I know multiple people that have lived here for over 15 years that were working for non profits and are now working for LOCAL (not WFH) tech companies. They commute downtown daily (on bikes they bought from local shops.) They buy lunch at local restaurants downtown.

We've lived here 12 years and the opportunities are SO MUCH better now. More work for engineers, more construction jobs, actual tech jobs (these literally didn't exist here 12 years ago), people starting restaurants and retailers are doing much better, opportunities in healthcare abound, etc. My wife got a job at Bob Wards when we moved here. She was paid peanuts and was sexually harassed almost daily. Now she's an account manager with a downtown office.

Yes, housing is too expensive and I would like an all in approach to that issue.

[Bunion 2020]

^^^ All fair points. Bozeman is seeing this as well and for some its great. However as long as Montana relies on property taxes for a large part of our revenues then those who are just scraping by (many elderly or long time residents) well, they are screwed.

[Conundrum]

You mean the expendables?

[RootSkier]

^^^ All fair points. Bozeman is seeing this as well and for some its great. However as long as Montana relies on property taxes for a large part of our revenues then those who are just scraping by (many elderly or long time residents) well, they are screwed.

Just wait until we stupidly pass our version of California's Prop 13. Then the problems will really start.

[4matic]

Lock box entries down 20% yoy.

[goldenboy]

Lock box entries down 20% yoy.

Is that for each lockbox, or just total? If it's total, it isn't at all surprising given that inventory is down over 40% yoy in my area at least...

[yeahman]

I'm nostalgic for the days when people with master's degrees worked at Mini-Mart or in construction or at the plywood mill because they wanted to live in Missoula. And a one bedroom apartment was less than $200 a month so that lifestyle was actually affordable. Nowadays you can have a good job with good pay-- and you still can't afford to live there. That's not progress.

[oldnew_guy]

I'm nostalgic for the days when people with master's degrees worked at Mini-Mart or in construction or at the plywood mill because they wanted to live in Missoula. And a one bedroom apartment was less than $200 a month so that lifestyle was actually affordable. Nowadays you can have a good job with good pay-- and you still can't afford to live there. That's not progress.

It’s not going back to that in the near future. Consider moving to the Midwest.

[RoooR]

https://www.kpax.com/news/missoula-c...ousing-project

[skaredshtles]

It’s not going back to that in the near future. Consider moving to the Midwest.

Yep - the Midwest/Rust Belt has all of that stuff in spades.

[RoooR]

Yep - the Midwest/Rust Belt has all of that stuff in spades.

Cleveland OH has an average home price a bit above $100k.

And:
A population that peaked in 1950 and is now almost 60% off the high.
The highest unemployment rate in the USA.
One of the highest crime rates in the USA.
One of the lowest percapita and HH incomes in the USA.
One of the highers poverty rates in the USA.
Some of the worst water quality in the USA.

[oldnew_guy]

Cleveland OH has an average home price a bit above $100k.

And:
A population that peaked in 1950 and is now almost 60% off the high.
The highest unemployment rate in the USA.
One of the highest crime rates in the USA.
One of the lowest percapita and HH incomes in the USA.
One of the highers poverty rates in the USA.
Some of the worst water quality in the USA.

Cleveland, OH is the Midwest Missoula, MT?

Greater Missoula metro is like 120,000, current population of Cleveland is 300,000 and the surrounding metro is ~3 million.

[dunfree]

Cleveland OH has an average home price a bit above $100k.

And:
A population that peaked in 1950 and is now almost 60% off the high.
The highest unemployment rate in the USA.
One of the highest crime rates in the USA.
One of the lowest percapita and HH incomes in the USA.
One of the highers poverty rates in the USA.
Some of the worst water quality in the USA.

the Cleveland metro area isn’t even in the top 10 for highest unemployment per the BLS. It’s not anywhere close to the lowest per capita income. I hate Cleveland and the rust belt but Stop sucking

[RoooR]

the Cleveland metro area isn’t even in the top 10 for highest unemployment per the BLS. It’s not anywhere close to the lowest per capita income. I hate Cleveland and the rust belt but Stop sucking.

took it from this. Says "larger"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...he-us-by-area/

[dunfree]

took it from this. Says "larger"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...he-us-by-area/

Statista is trash.
https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm

Cleveland is #73 in personal income, over fifty spots higher than#129 Missoula, m
https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/person...itan-area-2020



The more telling number isn’t any of those you posted, it’s business dynamic #s which for years have been tilted to the west and sunbelt - several years ago Montana as a state was #1 in new business formation per capita, Ohio #49 above only Mississippi

[RoooR]

So... we agree then? Cleveland sucks and Missoula is awesome?