Real Estate Crash thread

[skaredshtles]

Sometimes it's about being closer to family.

[liv2ski]

You know the Fed is struggling with the possibility of killing the housing market with a series of interest rate hikes.

You know the increases are from the Bond Markets opinion of what the FED needs to do, as the FED has not officially raised their bench mark rates yet. And yes, if you read the stuff I do, many think there is a chance of recession in the next 18 months, but who really knows?

[Toadman]

Lakehood


Do they have pets? Cats always go missing. Lots of coyotes up on the Green and they visit the nicer hoods for fresh meat often. Hopefully they don't have outdoor cats. Also, the dog park there off W. Alameda was nice when I visited often bitd, but I've read of lots of dogs getting sick from visiting there past few years.

No pets. Once us kids moved out, no more dogs after that.

[Benny Profane]

You know the Fed is struggling with the possibility of killing the housing market with a series of interest rate hikes.

I certainly hope so. There are millions and millions, mostly young and not in on the game, that are locked out.

It's a slow moving train. Prices may normalize when the Boomers die, but that's at least a decade, maybe two.

[yeahman]

I certainly hope so. There are millions and millions, mostly young and not in on the game, that are locked out.

Seriously. The housing market is fucking dead as a doornail for the majority of the people in this country. Take us back to 2009.

[dunfree]

That’s good news for the multi property tgnar slum lords though! NIMBY!

[BCMtnHound]

Here's a gem in East Vancouver: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...-531-1.6319447
"Value of tiny lot in East Vancouver skyrockets 3,431% in 1 year, according to B.C. Assessment
The William Street tiny lot sold in July 2020 for $88,000, and was resold to Lanefab for almost two and half times the price — $210,000 — 11 months later."

9X60ft lot.

[Benny Profane]

Seriously. The housing market is fucking dead as a doornail for the majority of the people in this country. Take us back to 2009.

Met somebody on the lift who bought a nice house in Reno in 09 for 90,000. I know it was nice because I was shopping there about the same time. Now he said it was worth 600,000. Smart move. He was 45.

[Name Redacted]

Seriously. The housing market is fucking dead as a doornail for the majority of the people in this country. Take us back to 2009.

Yeah, '09 was great wasn't it? People losing their homes to the banks who were getting bailed out by the feds. The good ol days I tell ya!

Locally, here in CO, the main problem is inventory right now. I'm hoping that that changes in the spring when people decide to cash out on their investment properties at these high prices and there's a surge of homes on the market creating some competition to drive prices down a little. Only time will tell I guess.

Meanwhile, I've been in the market for another property and it is crazy how competitive it is right now. Just saw a townhome go for 30k over asking, which was already almost double what it was worth in '17.

[altasnob]

Something Has to Give in the Housing Market. Or Does It?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/u...smid=url-share

“It’s not a bubble, it really is about the fundamentals,” said Jenny Schuetz, a housing researcher at the Brookings Institution. “It really is about supply and demand — not enough houses, and huge numbers of people wanting homes.”

“My pessimistic view is that the economy is perfectly capable of running with unaffordable housing,” said Daryl Fairweather, the chief economist at Redfin. This was evident over the last decade, she said, when affordability worsened even as the economy continued to grow. And that reality has enabled politicians and the public to largely neglect the issue of housing affordability.

“Another way to phrase that is people will still get up and go to their jobs, even if they’re housing insecure,” Ms. Fairweather said. “That’s one reason to think we’ll still just keep letting this problem get worse.”

[yeahman]

Yeah, '09 was great wasn't it? People losing their homes to the banks who were getting bailed out by the feds. The good ol days I tell ya!

Locally, here in CO, the main problem is inventory right now. I'm hoping that that changes in the spring when people decide to cash out on their investment properties at these high prices and there's a surge of homes on the market creating some competition to drive prices down a little. Only time will tell I guess.

Meanwhile, I've been in the market for another property and it is crazy how competitive it is right now. Just saw a townhome go for 30k over asking, which was already almost double what it was worth in '17.

We bought in 2010 and would never be able to afford it now, so yeah, that was a good time for most people except those who bought during the bubble.

But by all means buy another property during a bubble. Overpay like all the other dumbshits. Be part of the problem.

[TAFKALVS]

Ban Airbnb and a significant portion of the supposed "shortage" will cure itself.

[Stu Gotz]

This is a good OddLots podcast discussing housing outlook.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=vuYGislZ

[Self Jupiter]

Was just on a zoom call with a broker from Bellevue. An agent in her office had a listing last week with 33 offers that went for 800k over asking. The insanity continues.

List price?

There is nothing for sale in Mass right now. No end of this in sight. FFS.

[Name Redacted]

We bought in 2010 and would never be able to afford it now, so yeah, that was a good time for most people except those who bought during the bubble.

But by all means buy another property during a bubble. Overpay like all the other dumbshits. Be part of the problem.

"Except for those who bought during a bubble"---that was a shitload of people and it had a not-small effect on the economy IIRC, which directly or indirectly affected almost every person on the planet. You might not have gotten screwed out of a house, but you got screwed out of something because of the global recession.

RE: buying during a bubble- I just sold an investment property, if it is a bubble, I'll be fine because that investment was purchased before prices surged. If anything, I'll just be under-leveraged.

[Benny Profane]

So, in other words, it's cool, I got mine.

[fastfred]

So, in other words, it's cool, I got mine.

pretty much benny shoulda bought a house in a ski town twenty years ago
bummer you missed the boat on all that

[Name Redacted]

So, in other words, it's cool, I got mine.

Started the thread and still doesn't get it 19426 pages later.

So you admire the 45 year old guy who bought 13 years ago for $90K and now has a house worth $600K but when he sells it and collects that money, do you call him a greedy capitalist who is ruining the American dream for thousands of young adults who will never be able to buy their piece of the American dream?

[fastfred]

just waiting for the next crash to buy yo dogg

meanwhile when that crash happens and another couple million or so people jump ship on the trades good luck with all that cause wages will not go down plumbers and electricians will be in even higher demand

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

List price?

There is nothing for sale in Mass right now. No end of this in sight. FFS.

Was only like 1.5M.

[Benny Profane]

pretty much benny shoulda bought a house in a ski town twenty years ago
bummer you missed the boat on all that

Twenty? Shit, 30, in your hood. Condos were trading for pocket change in Summit after the S&L crisis cleared.

[Benny Profane]

Started the thread and still doesn't get it 19426 pages later.

So you admire the 45 year old guy who bought 13 years ago for $90K and now has a house worth $600K but when he sells it and collects that money, do you call him a greedy capitalist who is ruining the American dream for thousands of young adults who will never be able to buy their piece of the American dream?

No, I call him lucky. But, he still lives in Reno.

[muted reborn]

Hey Name Redacted, I asked this before - honest question - since you are trying or did by in Moab, what do you think of the 2500 homes approved in Spanish Valley? Are those still happening or did that get cancelled when the town found out they have way less water than they thought (unlikely of course)?

I ask because we were looking at house around Moab a few years ago, but never bought for reasons that have nothing to do with the 2500 houses slated. But that big development did make me second guess how the house values would change and how much water is around. We may be looking near Monticello instead in a few years (but there's no inventory and that's unrelated to this)....anyways what do you think of the Moab outlook besides the obvious thought it will always be a crowded destination?

[Mazderati]

Yeah, '09 was great wasn't it? People losing their homes to the banks who were getting bailed out by the feds. The good ol days I tell ya!

Depends. No love lost for speculators and flippers and there were tons of those.

[Name Redacted]

Hey Name Redacted, I asked this before - honest question - since you are trying or did by in Moab, what do you think of the 2500 homes approved in Spanish Valley? Are those still happening or did that get cancelled when the town found out they have way less water than they thought (unlikely of course)?

I ask because we were looking at house around Moab a few years ago, but never bought for reasons that have nothing to do with the 2500 houses slated. But that big development did make me second guess how the house values would change and how much water is around. We may be looking near Monticello instead in a few years (but there's no inventory and that's unrelated to this)....anyways what do you think of the Moab outlook besides the obvious thought it will always be a crowded destination?

No, I decided against Moab as it is tough to cash flow an investment there and right now that's what I am mainly focussed on. I could have broke even and had a sweet home to go to any time I wanted, but that just isn't enough for me right now. I'd rather cash flow and travel with the proceeds.

The place I was looking at was a townhome in one of the few STR approved neighborhoods in Moab. Looked like April-May were insane rent prices, like higher than here in CO, but mid-summer and winter would be tough. Here in CO, there is more consistency throughout the year.

I also decided that I'm moving away from STRs, they just aren't worth the hassle and the potential to continue to be taxed/licensed/regulated out of existence. They are definitely past their prime from an investment POV.