Real Estate Crash thread

[CascadeLuke]

My (realtor) wife and I were just discussing the price jumps around here, and there is a perfect storm forming for desirable markets: low rates, low supply, lower density, lower possibility of riots = bidding wars with higher escalations. That turns into higher comps, and higher asking.

This. Plus factor in the purchasers who have likely missed out on a few competitive offer situations (while living in transitional housing) and you’ll see some unbelievable closing prices on the desirable properties.

[schuss]

My dad just got an over ask offer one day post listing in the middle of nowhere. Seems to be a seller's market right now as plenty have cash to buy.

[Toadman]

I am certain that is from refinances, it isn't overwhelming purchases.

No idea, but that would seem logical, given the amount of inventory of homes for sale is down YOY. Only two month supply in Bend. But lots of new homes will be going on the market by end of summer. Just in time for the economy to go BOOM! Or be BOOMING! Depends on who you talk to...

[char_]

No idea, but that would seem logical, given the amount of inventory of homes for sale is down YOY. Only two month supply in Bend. But lots of new homes will be going on the market by end of summer. Just in time for the economy to go BOOM! Or be BOOMING! Depends on who you talk to...

We just sold and are in rental housing and would like to buy but this market/economy makes no sense to me at the moment. I figure it is pent up demand like others have noted.

Unemployment is ~15÷ here. Things will have to slow down at some point.

I was expecting to struggle to sell, not have a bidding war so....

[4matic]

Housing prices hold up at least through all the stimulus and extended UI. If there is a reckoning it comes next year after year end layoffs and the approaching end of forbearance. Also, with new home building full steam ahead the home builder might have excess inventory later this year. It's hard to reconcile lower rents and higher prices comituning for extended period.

[AdironRider]

The people that make up the "unemployed by corona" are by far and away not home buyers. They do however make up a large portion of the rental pool. I could easily see this trend continuing.

[Toadman]

It's the employed WFH crowd that are getting the okay by their companies to continue the WFH status that are buying. Plus the boomer that were planning to retire, are probably looking for that little slice of uncrowded heaven. Before long, every little slice of heaven is going to be a crowded hell....

[Self Jupiter]

92.5% increase in active rental listings in Boston vs this time last year

Sales market largely mimicking the trends noted above, even in the city but especially so on the coast and in the desirable suburbs.

[Benny Profane]

Lots of AirBnB getting dumped back into long term rental pool.

[muted]

Before long, every little slice of heaven is going to be a crowded hell....

And how does this story go again? I think I remember....

1) transplants get frustrated how backwards their new small community is
2) Some, mainly the Type A transplants, get involved in their community to 'fix' what they don't like and try to make them like the community they just left, thinking they are helping the backwards people
3) Locals get on facebook and the local news website complain about the dumb libs infesting their town and sometimes verbally assault the newbs in town halls
4) Transplants move back to a more civilized community and snarkily say, "well the food scene sucked anyways'

Only the truly elite move back unfortunately though, most stay.

[ötzi]

A coworker in the Denver area had to take the afternoon off suddenly. He listed his house this morning and they already have 5 showings for this afternoon. HOT MARKET!

The first time read that I read "Detroit" and I was kind of surprised.

[Benny Profane]

Bad numbers.

https://www.studyfinds.org/half-of-u...-selling-home/

[glademaster]

Housing market here in WWA is hotter than ever. Sickening amount of new construction.

[liv2ski]

Bad numbers.

https://www.studyfinds.org/half-of-u...-selling-home/

Fuck, I had no idea the numbers were that bad.

A survey of 2,000 American homeowners found that 52 percent are constantly concerned about making their mortgage payment on time. Forty-seven percent of the poll say they’re considering selling their home because they can’t afford their mortgage anymore.

Researchers say 35 percent of U.S. homeowners admit they’ve missed a mortgage payment during the pandemic. The same amount of respondents said they worry about losing their home because of the financial situation COVID-19 has put them in.

The poll, commissioned by the National Association of Realtors, also found that eight in 10 homeowners say the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unexpected financial problem in their lives.

[Benny Profane]

Watch what happens when UE payments stop. Give this six months. Personally, I think this is a very bad time to be commiting to such a large purchase. Patience.

[Danno]

those numbers sound really high, and 2,000 is a small enough sample that unless they did their polling homework really well, it might not be fully representative. But if those numbers are correct, holy cow.

[goldenboy]

those numbers sound really high, and 2,000 is a small enough sample that unless they did their polling homework really well, it might not be fully representative. But if those numbers are correct, holy cow.

Yeah, it would be nice to know more about the study.

Things are so busy here the title company can't accommodate closings until mid August. Appraisers are booked 5+ weeks out as well. Inspections, 4 weeks.

[Danno]

wow, that's crazy. I closed on my refi in exactly a month.

[glademaster]

Watch what happens when UE payments stop. Give this six months. Personally, I think this is a very bad time to be commiting to such a large purchase. Patience.

In some regions, I think you're spot on. The folks driving the insane market around here have largely been unaffected by COVID. We have more new homes under construction in my jurisdiction than at any previous point and they're all in the $800k-1.25M range, and they're all sold before they start excavating for the foundation. It's bonkers, I'm issuing 20-30 CoO a month for new homes in a jurisdiction with a population of ~10,000.

Lots of young couples moving into these neighborhoods too.

[Self Jupiter]

This weekend- socially distanced buyers being herded into open houses for sub $325-375k condo units in a coastal suburb/small city outside Boston

[Ted Striker]

The folks driving the insane market around here have largely been unaffected by COVID. We have more new homes under construction

It's the same here, but existing homes. People with the means to overpay to get into a less urban environment. It's all ages too, whereas a year ago it was the newlywed and nearly dead.

[glademaster]

My theory is that in this area the existing home market is being dominated by slightly older buyers who have the liquidity to make cash offers and get into bidding wars. That in turn is driving younger high-earners to stoke demand for new homes in the price range I see out my way: they're people who have the income to make mortgage payments on a $1M house, but they don't yet have the assets to buy an $800,000 place cash.

[Self Jupiter]

Lots of younger buyers around here are calling on rich relatives to borrow cash to meet the difference on appraised vs contract values, or even to borrow enough to purchase now and refi later. Tough enough to get a property under contract with a mortgage contingency. Express appraisal clause will be a non-starter in a bidding war.

[Benny Profane]

My theory is that in this area the existing home market is being dominated by slightly older buyers who have the liquidity to make cash offers and get into bidding wars. That in turn is driving younger high-earners to stoke demand for new homes in the price range I see out my way: they're people who have the income to make mortgage payments on a $1M house, but they don't yet have the assets to buy an $800,000 place cash.

And, if things go south, they never will have that equity. There's still a lot of people here underwater from '06.

Who knows. This is a day and age when Hertz declares bankruptcy and then there was a feeding frenzy for the stock. As always, the public is incredibly financially illiterate. I'd wait a little while. What's the rush? I don't get it.

[liv2ski]

My poor youngest daughter had the sweet mgr/head waiter position in a local French restaurant making great money for that industry. The two partners had a falling out over the close down mess and the evil one bought out the good one, so she quit and is now waiting tables for peanuts. Lucky she didn't buy 6 months ago, as we got close a few times. Now she is hoping 2021 is the year she can ditch our asses. I hope those prices come down Benny.