Real Estate Crash thread

[simple]

Whoever marketed those things as "flushable" needs to get a swift kick to the crotch, and a dump truck full of shitty wipes dumped over their head.

Profits over long term problems. Capitalism 101

[Toadman]

Lumber futures going in the right direction for once. See how long that lasts. Maybe some Canukistanian softwood sans tariffs would help.

https://nahbnow.com/2021/05/lawmaker...757.1621269339

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai told Senate lawmakers that she would “push for solutions to the lumber pricing issues” and address the issue of tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber imports into the United States during a May 12 Senate Finance Committee hearing on President Biden’s 2021 trade policy agenda.

Tai reiterated her willingness to act on this issue 24 hours later during a House hearing in which four bipartisan lawmakers spoke about the need to seek remedies for rising lumber prices by boosting production and ending tariffs on Canadian lumber imports into the United States.

During the House hearing, Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) submitted a statement of record from NAHB where we stated that “resolving the long-running dispute with Canada over the trade in softwood lumber and addressing the steel and aluminum tariffs must be a top priority of Congress and the Administration. Building safe, decent and affordable housing depends in large part upon a stable and affordable supply of building materials.”

Separately, Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) delivered a Senate floor statement on lumber on May 11 where he cited NAHB statistics on how rising lumber prices have added nearly $36,000 to the price of a new home and a $13,000 increase in the market value of a multifamily unit. Moran called for the elimination of lumber tariffs and to “boost the domestic types of the types of lumber used in home construction.”

Finally, Sens. Moran and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) sent a joint letter to Tai this week stating that “the complete elimination of these [lumber] tariffs is necessary to provide relief from rising lumber prices. American home buyers, not Canadian lumber producers, are the ones who end up paying the cost of these trade restrictions.”

[Mokomahonah]

Looking at a place that has a pump to move sewage uphill to the mainline. Anything I should look for with these systems? Appears to have been updated since the house was built and has a wired in alarm. Is there routine maintenance or do you just let it run until the pump dies?

Also has a RAMJack installed foundation repair consisting of steel piles at intervals on the downhill side of the house and at least one helical tie back. Anyone ever work or deal with them? The repair is less than 5 years old. Was engineered, permitted and has a transferable warranty. Any clue if they engineer for earthquake loads?

Recently retrofitted foundations should be engineered for EQ loads. That is the code allows 30% increase in bearing pressure during earthquakes. I was involved in some neat research testing helicals in liquifaction scenarios, they work great if you get them into non liquifiable soil (go figure). Not typically used for tiebacks in my area, but I don't see why it wouldn't work.

Whether or not the building itself was designed/built with earthquakes in mind is dependant on the year built and where.

Sent from my 5007Z using Tapatalk

[paulster2626]

Lumber futures going in the right direction for once. See how long that lasts. Maybe some Canukistanian softwood sans tariffs would help.

https://nahbnow.com/2021/05/lawmaker...757.1621269339

Hope that doesn't happen. SPF is in short supply up here too, we need as much as we can get. At this point with supply not able to keep up with demand I don't think loosening tariffs is going to make a difference.

[MontuckyFried]

Met a guy this weekend who's building a modest house and he said the builder's switching thing up to insulated concrete panels and steel structure roof because it's literally cheaper than plain lumber these days and easier to procure. I mean, dude's gonna end up with a REALLY well built house because of it, but that kind of blew my mind.

[AdironRider]

https://www.census.gov/construction/...ewresconst.pdf

Housing starts are in the toilet. Current stock is going to see even higher prices this summer. The wave continues.

[Toadman]

Hope that doesn't happen. SPF is in short supply up here too, we need as much as we can get. At this point with supply not able to keep up with demand I don't think loosening tariffs is going to make a difference.

Even just the rumors of a trade deal and removal of tariffs on Canadian lumber would probably cause a 10% decrease in lumber prices. So with the current lumber futures trading at $1250, that's a pretty big decrease.

Just talked with a builder this weekend, and one of the bigger home builders here in Central Oregon just put a pause on new home construction. They build middle of the range homes, so they must feel that they can't pump up the price buy $36k-$50k on a $400k-$650k house and make money. Or, probably also a PITA to source the materials on a consistent basis to keep the crews busy. I hear stories of 3-4 week delays from once the foundation is poured to getting the framing material. Same goes for interior work, electrical to painting.

[XXX-er]

a neighbor building a house in fall and recently finishing told me at somepoint ply wood was cheaper than OSB cuz the OSB was the newest price and the plywood was an old price

locally every lot in the subdivision is sold, every builder is busy, every listing in the RE office window has a sold sticker on it

[Toadman]

a neighbor building a house in fall and recently finishing told me at somepoint ply wood was cheaper than OSB cuz the OSB was the newest price and the plywood was an old price

locally every lot in the subdivision is sold, every builder is busy, every listing in the RE office window has a sold sticker on it

Yep, the builder I talked with over the weekend said the same thing. Said it was just bonkers on OSB. Hardwood flooring and cabinetry hasn't taken quite the same hit. But talking with an individual back East who knows some of the mills that produce hard woods has mentioned issues sourcing ash and oak. Probably a combo of lack of labor to log and transport the cut logs to the mills. Watched a video interview of some lumber commodities trader saying that there is a real reluctance for companies in the milling and logging industry to add capacity as they see the current surge in lumber pricing as temporary and don't want to spend the capital for a short term gain.

[sirbumpsalot]

Closed for $150,000 over asking - 3 weeks later its back up for sale for another $179,000 higher than that:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...0885189_zpid/?

[4matic]

Closed for $150,000 over asking - 3 weeks later its back up for sale for another $179,000 higher than that:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...0885189_zpid/?

Good example of how phony the Zestimate price is.

[dunfree]

Yep, the builder I talked with over the weekend said the same thing. Said it was just bonkers on OSB. Hardwood flooring and cabinetry hasn't taken quite the same hit. But talking with an individual back East who knows some of the mills that produce hard woods has mentioned issues sourcing ash and oak. Probably a combo of lack of labor to log and transport the cut logs to the mills. Watched a video interview of some lumber commodities trader saying that there is a real reluctance for companies in the milling and logging industry to add capacity as they see the current surge in lumber pricing as temporary and don't want to spend the capital for a short term gain.

ash? Ash is the cheapest hardwood in the upper Midwest at the moment because The EAB is in the process of decimating it.

[CascadeLuke]

I live in a mixed age neighborhood where the builders are going ape - writing bonafide offers on anything that appears to be a land value type place. Lots average 10,000’ and only allow for a scrape, no subdivision due to CCR overlays. My house is next door to my FIL and he’s been getting consistent offers from Murray Franklin because the guy on the other side of him sold (pictured). Builder wants to tag team and give supportive curb appeal. Finished homes selling for 2.25-2.5MM depending on how many sqft the city allows them to build. FILs current offer is 985k. He’ll never sell.

I spent 200k less a year ago and my place is designed by a locally famous MCM builder and way more desirable. Crazy to think I almost walked last March when I thought the world was melting down — listing to bunny.

[Garbowski]

a neighbor building a house in fall and recently finishing told me at somepoint ply wood was cheaper than OSB cuz the OSB was the newest price and the plywood was an old price

Yeah, I noticed that all the shitty condos going up around me were using plywood and figured that had to be the case. Rational markets indeed.

[alpinevibes]

Closed for $150,000 over asking - 3 weeks later its back up for sale for another $179,000 higher than that:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...0885189_zpid/?

Crazy crazy crazy... But where's the part about the free Prowler and Growler flyovers?

"BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED WATERFRONT RETREAT! Amazing Sunsets, Beach Combing, Crabbing, Clamming, Oysters, Mussels & Fishing on your private tideland beach!"

[Ted Striker]

Closed for $150,000 over asking - 3 weeks later its back up for sale for another $179,000 higher than that:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6...0885189_zpid/?

People used to live in those waterfront houses on Camano and Whidbey. Now it's all about the Airbnb/vrbo cash flow.

[Toadman]

I live in a mixed age neighborhood where the builders are going ape - writing bonafide offers on anything that appears to be a land value type place. Lots average 10,000’ and only allow for a scrape, no subdivision due to CCR overlays. My house is next door to my FIL and he’s been getting consistent offers from Murray Franklin because the guy on the other side of him sold (pictured). Builder wants to tag team and give supportive curb appeal. Finished homes selling for 2.25-2.5MM depending on how many sqft the city allows them to build. FILs current offer is 985k. He’ll never sell.

I spent 200k less a year ago and my place is designed by a locally famous MCM builder and way more desirable. Crazy to think I almost walked last March when I thought the world was melting down — listing to bunny.

The problem is, where do you move after you sell? Those are some crazy price points.

[abraham]

Bend, I've heard.

[dan_pdx]

Bend, I've heard.

I was just talking to a buddy in Bend about two weeks ago and he says it's over. They're looking to move to the NE...like upstate NY.

[Toadman]

I was just talking to a buddy in Bend about two weeks ago and he says it's over. They're looking to move to the NE...like upstate NY.

Yep, if you weren't here just at the start of the pandemic, it's too late. You want to build on your own lot. Sorry, no land for sale. Most is already snatched before it hits the market. Besides, even if you found a lot, you would have to wait a few years to build on it. Which might not be bad if you aren't in any hurry, and lumber prices could go down. Hell, the whole market could collapse.

Upstate NY sounds nice. Just need to know where that actually is. Thought I saw thread somewhere about that very topic.

[alpinevibes]

Bend, I've heard.

A coworker just told me today that their friend [a private chef here in Aspen] is "moving to Bend to open a Maine lobster roll food truck."

I chuckled and said "yeah that sounds about right at this point for Bend..."

[Toadman]

A coworker just told me today that their friend [a private chef here in Aspen] is "moving to Bend to open a Maine lobster roll food truck."

I chuckled and said "yeah that sounds about right at this point for Bend..."

That's awesome! Way too many food trucks around here that serve burgers, dogs and tacos. We need some fricking lobsta rolls. (Doubt they will be as good as what you get back in NE though.)

[spanky]

Anyone interested in a 600 sq ft trailer for $2M?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...80107140_zpid/

Just don’t go reading about the beach erosion problems.

[abraham]

Deforest road seems a bit coincidental for a place with erosion problems.

[alpinevibes]

That's awesome! Way too many food trucks around here that serve burgers, dogs and tacos. We need some fricking lobsta rolls. (Doubt they will be as good as what you get back in NE though.)

Lobsters will be flown in. Fuck the carbon footprint - there's enough East Coast refugees in Bend to make the economics work, right?