Real Estate Crash thread

[puma]

New construction homes sale in the $850k-1.25M range are stronger than they've been at any point in the last 3 years (my limited frame of reference), and builders and pulling permits for more as soon as we can review them. Nothing is being built as a spec home, if they're breaking ground for the foundation, the place is already sold. Lots of young couples (i.e. one kid still in diapers or the wife with a bun in the oven) buying these ~$1M places as their starter homes.

I can't foresee the market taking a dive, or even slowing down in appreciable way over the next 12 months here. The people who can afford to purchase homes in Pugetopolis have by and large been spared any negative repercussions of the pandemic in terms of income, job security, etc.

Thanks. I really must have done it wrong. Call it jealousy, but I just cannot imagine how someone is able to buy a million-dollar home as their first home. I think we do ok from an earning and savings perspective, but this is not even our first home, and I don't feel comfortable with the 1 mill home. I am admittedly risk-averse, and try to plan for the what-ifs...but a million-dollar new toll brothers home in North Bend just seems crazy to me... (and for the record, I favor North Bend more than the closer to the city my wife does, but I don't think I'm going to win this one, and pushing for victory ends up being a loss anyway...Happy wife\happy life)

[glademaster]

Thanks. I really must have done it wrong. Call it jealousy, but I just cannot imagine how someone is able to buy a million-dollar home as their first home. I thought we did ok, but this is not even our first home, and I don't feel comfortable with the 1 mill home. I am admittedly risk-averse, and try to plan for the what-ifs...but a million-dollar new toll brothers home in North Bend just seems crazy to me... (and for the record, I favor North Bend more than the closer to the city my wife does, but I don't think I'm going to win this one, and pushing for victory ends up being a loss anyway...Happy wife\happy life)

I agree completely, it's pretty wild to see what homes are commanding out here. I'm 31 years old with no debt, but it's a damn hard market to wade into with a single government income.

If you end up looking in the North Bend/Snoqualmie area, shoot me a PM, I can fill you in a bit on the area.

[liv2ski]

Seattle with no Police Dept will be interesting. Not sure I would want to commit to buying a home there anytime soon, but I guess the city council can always say "Just Kidding".

[Toadman]

Seattle with no Police Dept will be interesting. Not sure I would want to commit to buying a home there anytime soon, but I guess the city council can always say "Just Kidding".

So it sounds like a lot of places will go on the market as all the Seattle LEO's move out, no? Or will they take side gigs as personal bodyguards to the rich?

[SKIP IN7RO]

So it sounds like a lot of places will go on the market as all the Seattle LEO's move out, no?

I thought most cops do not live in the cities they patrol.

[glademaster]

Seattle with no Police Dept will be interesting. Not sure I would want to commit to buying a home there anytime soon, but I guess the city council can always say "Just Kidding".

People tend to throw around "Seattle" when referring to the roughly 2000 square miles of Western Washington between Puget Sound and the Cascades (W-to-E) and Tacoma to Everett (S-to-N). I picked it up from someone on here, so I'm not taking credit for it, but that's why I use "Pugetopolis" when referring the region.

[4matic]

Has to be 1000’s of paper millionaires from msft, amzn, and, sbux alone.

[glademaster]

Has to be 1000’s of paper millionaires from msft, amzn, and, sbux alone.

Tens of thousands.

[dunfree]

~10,000 from MSFT alone... in 2000.

[Kevo]

Anyone know of a datasource that shows mortgage delinquencies by county or by zip code? I think it could be a pretty good indicator of whether there will be an oversupply in a given area in the near future which would drive prices down.

[glademaster]

Anyone know of a datasource that shows mortgage delinquencies by county or by zip code? I think it could be a pretty good indicator of whether there will be an oversupply in a given area in the near future which would drive prices down.

Now that's good thinking!

[mcsquared]

Anyone know of a datasource that shows mortgage delinquencies by county or by zip code? I think it could be a pretty good indicator of whether there will be an oversupply in a given area in the near future which would drive prices down.

This would require each bank to report their delinquencies to a central database on a regular basis. So no. If you had this data you would make a shitton of money selling it.

[Name Redacted]

Mass migration away from cities and to the Burbs and vacation destinations.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7f52fd88...ly-update.html

[Kevo]

This would require each bank to report their delinquencies to a central database on a regular basis. So no. If you had this data you would make a shitton of money selling it.

This data exists in some form from the federal government- https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data...ys-delinquent/

They release reports quarterly. The most recent data was published in May and the data at that time ended in Dec.

Fannie and Freddie also have the data for tens of millions of conforming mortgages that they own, but they obfuscate it and only release it based on the servicer. I downloaded their raw data and it is pretty shitty, unfortunately.

[AdironRider]

Are you looking for names and addresses, because that shit will get abused to hell.

[Toadman]

So if there's a mass migration out of the cities, who is migrating to the cities and filling those city homes?

[klauss]

Black knight has some good mtg reports including delinquencies.


https://cdn.blackknightinc.com/wp-co...020_Report.pdf

[Name Redacted]

So if there's a mass migration out of the cities, who is migrating to the cities and filling those city homes?

People from rural areas who are sick and tired of all the city folks moving to their towns. Or people who want more "culture". I figure that it is a short, 5 year trend, that will then reverse itself, but not before significantly gentrifying the countryside. Or whatever the equivalence is. It was happening here for years, but this will just kick it into higher gear.

[Dantheman]

Mass migration away from cities and to the Burbs and vacation destinations.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7f52fd88...ly-update.html

"As a result, buyers are flooding into markets like Phoenix, Sacramento, Fresno, Bridgeport, Vegas, and Detroit"

Well that's...interesting.

[TAFKALVS]

People from rural areas who are sick and tired of all the city folks moving to their towns. Or people who want more "culture". I figure that it is a short, 5 year trend, that will then reverse itself, but not before significantly gentrifying the countryside. Or whatever the equivalence is. It was happening here for years, but this will just kick it into higher gear.

The home market in N. Idaho at the moment is completely stupid. Out of state buyers, making cash offers, at or above asking price, sight unseen, on properties that are often miles away from town, or even the nearest county snowplow, power grid, or internet.

I think there's going to be some culture shock for people this winter... and there's some locals who are making out like bandits.

[Name Redacted]

"As a result, buyers are flooding into markets like Phoenix, Sacramento, Fresno, Bridgeport, Vegas, and Detroit"

Well that's...interesting.

Yeah, not even close to what I would guess, but I bet the inventory and pricing in those markets is better. To say "rural areas" it would be tough to get data for those and they'd be more variable than a city.

[Toadman]

People from rural areas who are sick and tired of all the city folks moving to their towns. Or people who want more "culture". I figure that it is a short, 5 year trend, that will then reverse itself, but not before significantly gentrifying the countryside. Or whatever the equivalence is. It was happening here for years, but this will just kick it into higher gear.

Where's "here"? It's been happening here (Bend, OR) too. Talking to the local Starbucks store mgr that I frequent and she said 3 SBUX employees have moved down here from Seattle, and there are more of them coming...And that's just one company. Bend will be a liberal oasis in a red neck desert before too long.

[Ted Striker]

Bend will be a liberal oasis in a red neck desert before too long.

I thought it already was.

[Toadman]

I thought it already was.

Almost. This COVID urban to small town migration should put the final nail in the coffin.

[Benny Profane]

"As a result, buyers are flooding into markets like Phoenix, Sacramento, Fresno, Bridgeport, Vegas, and Detroit"

Well that's...interesting.

Bridgeport??