Real Estate Crash thread

[Mazderati]

Who's buying right now? Who's selling?

[Kevo]

Who's buying right now? Who's selling?

A fellow mag sold his house outside Boulder and is building in a mountain town. Pretty stoked for that guy.

Another mag did the same Denver to Wyoming mountain town. Pretty well played.

I need a remote job, apparently.

[Skidog]

Who's buying right now? Who's selling?

Will be selling very soon.

Sent from my XT1650 using TGR Forums mobile app

[donutlynx]

Just sold in a SW "mtn town". Currently renting and waiting a bit to buy in NW "mtn town".

[ski-wpk]

Looking to buy a 120 year old beater in downtown Boulder. Lots of work needed, but it will clean up very well.

[smmokan]

No issues fixing it up with historical designations? I’ve read about some horror stories with the commissioners getting too big for their britches downtown.

[ski-wpk]

Generally as long as you’re keeping the front facade and 50% of the roof and exterior walls, there’s not much the city can do. Check out the 1800 block of Pearl if you are ever downtown. 1890s bungalow with 3 story box being added behind. Not my project, FYI - but gives you a sense of what is possible. It’s when you apply for a demo permit (or demo without a permit) that the city goes nuts.

[glademaster]

Hey, good luck with that.

[frorider]

Since we have long term friends in Chamonix and like skiing in Yurp when possible, we’ve been shopping around for a 1 bedroom condo here with views of Mont Blanc etc. $340/sq ft is the average price for ones with recent remodel. HOA fees seem lower than typical in US mtn towns. And the rack rate day tickets for major resorts are half the price of a shitty US McResort.

Just throwing this in for comparison.

[Toadman]

Since we have long term friends in Chamonix and like skiing in Yurp when possible, we’ve been shopping around for a 1 bedroom condo here with views of Mont Blanc etc. $340/sq ft is the average price for ones with recent remodel. HOA fees seem lower than typical in US mtn towns. And the rack rate day tickets for major resorts are half the price of a shitty US McResort.

Just throwing this in for comparison.

Thanks for the perspective. Not to mention the foods better than McResort food too!

[Toadman]

Amazing what you can get these days for just over $700k in trendy Bend.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...82em&3col=true

Saw a local news report that the avg. price of a single family home here is now $410k. They had a RE agent talking about how "concerned" she was about Bend becoming the next Aspen. I wouldn't mind personally since I already bought here. So, hopefully Bend becomes New Aspbend, and my house will be worth 7 figures in the next year or so. I'm not sure how I will feel about all those private jets flying in and out of here though. Plus, no one wears fur around here.

[skaredshtles]

Amazing what you can get these days for just over $700k in trendy Bend.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sal...82em&3col=true

Saw a local news report that the avg. price of a single family home here is now $410k. They had a RE agent talking about how "concerned" she was about Bend becoming the next Aspen. I wouldn't mind personally since I already bought here. So, hopefully Bend becomes New Aspbend, and my house will be worth 7 figures in the next year or so. I'm not sure how I will feel about all those private jets flying in and out of here though. Plus, no one wears fur around here.

Tell her she doesn't need to worry about Bend becoming the next Aspen. Sheesh. I mean, Bend is *nice*... but fuck. It's not THAT nice.

[justinspau]

Anyone renting or selling in Ashland southern OR. Moving out and housing options suck. Want to rent before we buy.

Just checking...

Sent from my van down by the river. Using a NewSchoolers hack... sick I know.

[AdironRider]

Tell her she doesn't need to worry about Bend becoming the next Aspen. Sheesh. I mean, Bend is *nice*... but fuck. It's not THAT nice.

After going to Aspen for the first time last year, I was thought it was nice, very nice even, but not Shangri fucking la like its made out to be. Seems odd to me what towns make it and what towns don't sometimes.

I mean the convenience store on the road in had bullet proof glass and bars on the window. It might have been closer to Basalt but fuck man, thats some shit I haven't seen since Dorchester was still a shithole or something out in Lawrence, Lowell or Revere back East.

[Toadman]

Tell her she doesn't need to worry about Bend becoming the next Aspen. Sheesh. I mean, Bend is *nice*... but fuck. It's not THAT nice.

It's got a long way to go before it gets to anywhere near what Aspen is like. It's already got too much of a strip mall feel to it. Especially South past Cooley Rd. on 97 with all these new chain stores coming in. But as the RE agent who was interviewed on TV mentioned, there are a lot of people retiring from Seattle area and the Bay area coming here. Heck, I'm surrounded by 3 couples who just retired to Bend from the Seattle area. It will be interesting to see how towns like Bend evolve as boomers retire and look for Shangri La, either near the coasts or the mountains. I don't want to be a hypocrite, so I will say no more.

[Benny Profane]

I was talking to a retired cop about RE near Bozeman, and we kinda agreed that the prices near there are being inflated by boomer retirees. There aren't many boomers with money, but enough to skew these markets, I'll bet. Wish I had some cash.

[zion zig zag]

I was talking to a retired cop about RE near Bozeman, and we kinda agreed that the prices near there are being inflated by boomer retirees. There aren't many boomers with money, but enough to skew these markets, I'll bet. Wish I had some cash.

I thought that the Bozeman market was being inflated by tech companies.

[Name Redacted]

There aren't many boomers with money, but enough to skew these markets, I'll bet.

Not many boomers with money? What world is that?

[Benny Profane]

Not many boomers with money? What world is that?

Maybe your mom and dad (this is TGR, after all) but half of all boomers have zero savings, and will survive only on SS if and when they stop working, either voluntarily or not. Of the other half, average assets are about 125,000, so we're talking about ten to twenty percent that can actually afford to go move to some paradise in the mountains. Probably childless, and they didn't extract all the value of their home refinancing before 08.

[Name Redacted]

Maybe your mom and dad (this is TGR, after all) but half of all boomers have zero savings, and will survive only on SS if and when they stop working, either voluntarily or not. Of the other half, average assets are about 125,000, so we're talking about ten to twenty percent that can actually afford to go move to some paradise in the mountains. Probably childless, and they didn't extract all the value of their home refinancing before 08.

OK, I'll give you that. A ton of american baby boomers were too fucking stupid to save for retirement, then panicked and sold in '08, and are depending on SS and Medicare to survive. There's also still a substantial amount of boomers who saved, made wise investments, didn't panic in '08, and are sitting pretty. Now they are all moving to the high country, CO, WY, MT are now retirement hot spots for these boomers. They are fucking everywhere.

[Benny Profane]

The upside to all that is that most of these boomer homes will be on the market quickly, because one spouse will become disabled enough to not be able to ski and hike, which is why they moved there in the first place, or, just die, and the other half will move back to "close to the kids", or just a warmer, flatter place where you don't have to shovel snow. This phenomenon of return has been going on for a long time in the Florida retirement scene, and that is about the easiest place to be old in the country. So, in about fifteen to twenty years, ski country RE should drop, when the boom ends and the indebted, poorer Xers can't afford to replace them. Too bad I'll be dead.

[iceman]

You're not gonna be dead, you're just gonna be an older and crankier Benny, especially if you run out of money. So be careful.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I think Benny's got the demographics right. That said, the combination of VRBO/AirBnB and remote work will, in my opinion, contribute to the demand of mountain town real estate indefinably. For better or worse, American ski towns are bursting at the seams.

[Toadman]

The upside to all that is that most of these boomer homes will be on the market quickly, because one spouse will become disabled enough to not be able to ski and hike, which is why they moved there in the first place, or, just die, and the other half will move back to "close to the kids", or just a warmer, flatter place where you don't have to shovel snow. This phenomenon of return has been going on for a long time in the Florida retirement scene, and that is about the easiest place to be old in the country. So, in about fifteen to twenty years, ski country RE should drop, when the boom ends and the indebted, poorer Xers can't afford to replace them. Too bad I'll be dead.

Ha! I was thinking about this last night. When is peak boomer retirement, and getting out of our house and selling at the peak? I figure there will be quite a few boomers going into retirement homes, and that will start freeing up supply.

[CascadeLuke]

I think Benny's got the demographics right. That said, the combination of VRBO/AirBnB and remote work will, in my opinion, contribute to the demand of mountain town real estate indefinably. For better or worse, American ski towns are bursting at the seams.

Possibly. But how many families will be VRBO'ing and buying $140 x 5 a day lift tickets and book destinations in CO with unreliable weather -- when the economy corrects? When the jobs shrink and the redundant tech jobs get deleted. The people who over paid (bought lately) will walk from homes when they loose 35% value and are upside down and much fewer rents to keep them afloat..

Saw many people get crushed last time around. Some got back on their feet. Some are right back into their old habits: high debt load, leasing, side flips and hustles. They've made some good moves over the last few years but inevitably they'll roll the dice one too many times.