Real Estate Crash thread

[Mazderati]

Another thing about STRs is their predominant location in desirable areas (duh) so even a small percent of the total can have an outsized impact.

[TAFKALVS]

As much as I hate to say it, I agree with this. I believe pretty choking regulations of STRs will help ease the housing shortage. And not taxes those just increases prices, what I've seen work to some degree is city wide caps if not bans.

My libertarian beliefs, and desire to own STRs as an investor directly contradict the above though, so don't yell at me too much.

I'm pretty libertarian too, but homes should not be hotels, and neighborhoods should be communities not resort complexes.

I am cool with STR in high density condos, and I think a lot of resort towns (like mine) should encourage as many of those as possible. Give people the dream of having a weekend place in the mountains. Lets cut the sprawl and get some high rises in our mountain and lake towns.

But save SFH for people, families and the community.

[Self Jupiter]

STRs really squeeze the rental market in resort areas.
You’re welcome,
Captain Obvious

[fastfred]

STRs really squeeze the rental market in resort areas.
You’re welcome,
Captain Obvious

It is and isn't kinda an urban myth to some degree

I was getting ready to rail against a bunch of local bullshit then they invited me up to 3rd floor hate when they do that to me small towns suck gotta watch what you say

[TAFKALVS]

STRs really squeeze the rental market in resort areas.
You’re welcome,
Captain Obvious

Yup. "Oh we love this town, let's buy an airbnb!" 5 years later, after 90% of the affordable housing inventory is locked in STRs "Wow, I can't believe the ski resort can't get employees! They should build affordable housing for them!"

[dunfree]

I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?

the Bloomberg link upthread had ~9% of the single family homes in the us converting to investor/rental property in the past decade. That’s a hefty chunk of the market.

[altasnob]

9% of homes in US are short term rentals?

In simple macroeconomic terms, price is where supply meets demand. So you add a small amount of supply by ending short term rentals, prices should marginally go down. But what about the demand for short term rentals? Hotels aren't exactly hurting right now, and can't absorb that demand. The only solution is to build more housing, particularly small, dense, cheap housing.

[dan_pdx]

Ahahahaha, they bumped the price from $550k to $600k. Getting kind of close to giving up on moving to B'ham.

3 bedroom Rambler in the Happy Valley Neighborhood. This home borders the Happy Valley Park to the back of the property and west side. Large 12,400 sf flat lot with an open back yard. This home has solid bones and is in need of some well deserved cosmetic TLC.

If "cosmetic TLC" means "nuke it from space and behead the remains" then I agree.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Bellingham.../home/15835947

Attachment 401042

Attachment 401041

[Name Redacted]

9% of homes in US are short term rentals?

In simple macroeconomic terms, price is where supply meets demand. So you add a small amount of supply by ending short term rentals, prices should marginally go down. But what about the demand for short term rentals? Hotels aren't exactly hurting right now, and can't absorb that demand. The only solution is to build more housing, particularly small, dense, cheap housing.

Investor/ rentals are not always STRs

[mcphee]

“It’s not selling, what could be wrong?”
“Well, at this price point and based on the area’s comps, it might be priced too low and prospective buyers probably think something is seriously wrong with the house. Let’s trying raising the price and see if we get some showings.”


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[altasnob]

Investor/ rentals are not always STRs

That's why I was questioning that number. I can't find a quick answer to what percentage of homes in America are short term rentals. But I can't imagine it is enough that banning them would dramatically change home prices on a national scale. And banning them would fuck with the economy is so many other ways. Whether it is a ski town or a major city, tourism and short term stays are a major part of the economy. You try to solve one problem but don't really solve it and instead create another problem.

Others have mentioned there are success stories in communities that have banned short term rentals. I am curious where those success stories are?

[El Chupacabra]

No, I call him lucky. But, he still lives in Reno.

Bless your heart.

[Yukonrider]

Others have mentioned there are success stories in communities that have banned short term rentals. I am curious where those success stories are?

I think the successes are less obvious, and affect the lower earners more. Much of the housing stock that got turned into STRs used to be LTRs, LTRs that housed folks who are unable or unwilling to buy, your service industry types, or in ski towns your lifties, or young home buyers.

While banning STRs would shift the demand onto hotels there by increasing the value of that commodity, you would increase housing available to the lower income folks, who are by and large being displaced currently with reverberating consequences in small communities. Larger towns are better insulated from this.

The changes wouldn't dramatically change home prices, but they would open up spaces to renters that isn't currently available.

And yes, the good long term answer is build more housing, but until you can undo years of restrictive zoning, asinine permitting processes, and lucrative tax streams, not to mention NIMBYisim from the boomers with money that's a pipe dream even further from reality than banning STRs.

[Benny Profane]

The average American outside of trophy cities is unaffected by STRs. This is such a TGR bro problem in their trust fundy world.

[Name Redacted]

The average American outside of trophy cities is unaffected by STRs. This is such a TGR bro problem in their trust fundy world.

WTF is a trophy city? Why do STRs need to affect the "Average American" to become an issue?

[fastfred]

The average American outside of trophy cities is unaffected by STRs. This is such a TGR bro problem in their trust fundy world.

benny with the solid
03 was a good year to buy property in a trophy city bro

Like what? I don't see shit to buy there - 12 houses for sale now roughly in the county. Or is it all coming down the pipeline?

.

it's been proposed a number of times by developer speculator types
they don't have any water or sewer so when these clowns talk a big talk then start actually adding up the cost of infrastructure it doesn't work out
a family in summit county (not local, but they pretend to be) has owned a lot of land for a long time, they fought tooth and nail for a 100 unit development and finally got it, well that was almost ten years ago and they have yet to break ground cause the morons didn't realize a bank wasn't going to hand them 10 million just to build roads water and sewer and power

[Summit]

So if refiing best to lock a rate immediately or are there any downward fluctuations anticipated?

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
they don't have any water or sewer so when these clowns talk a big talk then start actually adding up the cost of infrastructure it doesn't work out
a family in summit county (not local, but they pretend to be) has owned a lot of land for a long time, they fought tooth and nail for a 100 unit development and finally got it, well that was almost ten years ago and they have yet to break ground cause the morons didn't realize a bank wasn't going to hand them 10 million just to build roads water and sewer and power

Why don't we make the taxpayers pay for it??

[Ted Striker]

Ahahahaha, they bumped the price from $550k to $600k. Getting kind of close to giving up on moving to B'ham.

That place has been the talk of the town. It was owner occupied for years (rumor is old lady and her adult kid(s) and when mom passed the son lived there). I guess the guy had some troubles, the place fell into disrepair, and was eventually foreclosed upon by the bank. A foreign buyer bought the property as an investment, and intentionally left it empty. Meanwhile, squatters moved in. He's tried to sell it privately a few times to no avail, but now that the value of the dirt has exceeded his purchase price, he's apparently ok with paying a commission.

Predatory capitalism at its finest.

And the agent deserves an honorable mention in the breathless bullshit dept. The building is clearly a tear down, but the value of a 13k lot within city limits is probably a half million at this point. Subdividing to flag lot the back portion, and building two SFRs both with ADUs wouldn't be all that difficult. Someone with some wherewithal - and deep pockets - could probably get a rezone and build apartments.

[altasnob]

WTF is a trophy city? Why do STRs need to affect the "Average American" to become an issue?

Because it doesn't matter if (insert ski town/trophy city of your choosing) becomes more affordable by banning short term rentals if the rest of America is still unaffordable (they'll all move to this new suddenly affordable oasis).

You can't ban short term rentals at the national level (zoning is controlled by local and state governments). So we have the current status quo, where one little bourgeoisie ski town bans short term rentals, but the towns down the road don't. The net effect is zero change in housing prices. It's just shuffling around the winners and losers without moving the needle (similar to rent control).

I still can't figure out exactly how many short term rentals there are in America, but over 2 million is a reasonable guesstimate. Banning short term rentals doesn't make this demand go away. You would need to build 2 million non-short term rental places to absorb this demand. Which comes back to my main point, we need more housing built. I have nothing against increasing high rise hotel supply, but that construction faces the same impediments as does small, dense, multi-family housing. Red tape, high cost of land and construction, NIMBY's, ect.

[Ted Striker]

Really, wages need to rise.

[liv2ski]

So if refiing best to lock a rate immediately or are there any downward fluctuations anticipated?

Your guess is as good as anyone's else's out there as they can fluctuate a little as they march higher.

[altasnob]

Really, wages need to rise.

But the government can't snap their fingers and make wages go up. The only thing the government can do in this is cut out the red tape and tell NIMBY's to eat a dick so we can bring down new construction costs, and incentivize new development (preferably centrally located, small, dense, development that will actually have an affect on supply).

[Ted Striker]

uhm... the government can snap their fingers and make wages go up, but they won't.

But it's going to happen either way. If you aren't willing to pay $20/hr in this town you won't get any applicants.

We definitely fell way behind on building because money dried up after the financial meltdown, and I agree that incentivizing density/disincentivizing sprawl would be the smart thing, but this country is so "I got mine so fuck you" I don't see any meaningful change on that front. Especially where the wealthy control the local government.

[Name Redacted]

So if refiing best to lock a rate immediately or are there any downward fluctuations anticipated?

Now is the time. You might catch a dip if you are lucky but the overall trend will probably be up for the foreseeable future. Talk to a mortgage broker and get an application rolling then jump on the lowest rate in a short time period.