Real Estate Crash thread

[fastfred]

just waiting for the next crash to buy yo dogg

meanwhile when that crash happens and another couple million or so people jump ship on the trades good luck with all that cause wages will not go down plumbers and electricians will be in even higher demand

[Whiteroom_Guardian]

List price?

There is nothing for sale in Mass right now. No end of this in sight. FFS.

Was only like 1.5M.

[Benny Profane]

pretty much benny shoulda bought a house in a ski town twenty years ago
bummer you missed the boat on all that

Twenty? Shit, 30, in your hood. Condos were trading for pocket change in Summit after the S&L crisis cleared.

[Benny Profane]

Started the thread and still doesn't get it 19426 pages later.

So you admire the 45 year old guy who bought 13 years ago for $90K and now has a house worth $600K but when he sells it and collects that money, do you call him a greedy capitalist who is ruining the American dream for thousands of young adults who will never be able to buy their piece of the American dream?

No, I call him lucky. But, he still lives in Reno.

[muted reborn]

Hey Name Redacted, I asked this before - honest question - since you are trying or did by in Moab, what do you think of the 2500 homes approved in Spanish Valley? Are those still happening or did that get cancelled when the town found out they have way less water than they thought (unlikely of course)?

I ask because we were looking at house around Moab a few years ago, but never bought for reasons that have nothing to do with the 2500 houses slated. But that big development did make me second guess how the house values would change and how much water is around. We may be looking near Monticello instead in a few years (but there's no inventory and that's unrelated to this)....anyways what do you think of the Moab outlook besides the obvious thought it will always be a crowded destination?

[Mazderati]

Yeah, '09 was great wasn't it? People losing their homes to the banks who were getting bailed out by the feds. The good ol days I tell ya!

Depends. No love lost for speculators and flippers and there were tons of those.

[Name Redacted]

Hey Name Redacted, I asked this before - honest question - since you are trying or did by in Moab, what do you think of the 2500 homes approved in Spanish Valley? Are those still happening or did that get cancelled when the town found out they have way less water than they thought (unlikely of course)?

I ask because we were looking at house around Moab a few years ago, but never bought for reasons that have nothing to do with the 2500 houses slated. But that big development did make me second guess how the house values would change and how much water is around. We may be looking near Monticello instead in a few years (but there's no inventory and that's unrelated to this)....anyways what do you think of the Moab outlook besides the obvious thought it will always be a crowded destination?

No, I decided against Moab as it is tough to cash flow an investment there and right now that's what I am mainly focussed on. I could have broke even and had a sweet home to go to any time I wanted, but that just isn't enough for me right now. I'd rather cash flow and travel with the proceeds.

The place I was looking at was a townhome in one of the few STR approved neighborhoods in Moab. Looked like April-May were insane rent prices, like higher than here in CO, but mid-summer and winter would be tough. Here in CO, there is more consistency throughout the year.

I also decided that I'm moving away from STRs, they just aren't worth the hassle and the potential to continue to be taxed/licensed/regulated out of existence. They are definitely past their prime from an investment POV.

[sirbumpsalot]

No, I call him lucky. But, he still lives in Reno.

What ails you is ENVY

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
I also decided that I'm moving away from STRs, they just aren't worth the hassle and the potential to continue to be taxed/licensed/regulated out of existence. They are definitely past their prime from an investment POV.

I got a buddy that just spent a million bucks on a house in Tabernash and is planning to STR it. My reaction was:

[muted reborn]

No, I decided against Moab as it is tough to cash flow an investment there and right now that's what I am mainly focussed on. I could have broke even and had a sweet home to go to any time I wanted, but that just isn't enough for me right now. I'd rather cash flow and travel with the proceeds.

The place I was looking at was a townhome in one of the few STR approved neighborhoods in Moab. Looked like April-May were insane rent prices, like higher than here in CO, but mid-summer and winter would be tough. Here in CO, there is more consistency throughout the year.

I also decided that I'm moving away from STRs, they just aren't worth the hassle and the potential to continue to be taxed/licensed/regulated out of existence. They are definitely past their prime from an investment POV.

Cool, thanks for the thoughtful reply.

[climberevan]

Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

Anyway, we're not going to be able to build our way out of this anytime soon. I could build houses and make bank but I'd rather just go ride my bike. Plus there's this:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...prices/621288/

[Benny Profane]

What ails you is ENVY

Not really. I looked at a lot of places during the carnage. But, no way I'll live in some places, no matter how cheap they are. I mean, Boise was pretty meh at 125,000, now it's absurd at 500,000.

[thefortrees]

Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

]

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...20789894_zpid/

I was talking to the dude who just bought this property in LA for $1.2m and is trying to rent it out for $5k/month.

Him + wife are moving into the 400 sq ft ADU on the property, and he said they still will have to pay $800/month towards the mortgage. Long term he plans to do a cash out refinance, buy another property, rinse, repeat… easy as that, right?!?!

Seems to me like he is setting himself up for financial disaster. But hey, what do I know.

I’m sure there are plenty more people like this out there donating to the long-time CA resident relocation rescue fund

[Kevo]

Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

Anyway, we're not going to be able to build our way out of this anytime soon. I could build houses and make bank but I'd rather just go ride my bike. Plus there's this:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...prices/621288/

House prices no longer need to be connected to local wages.

IMHO, local wages need to be connected to house prices.

[fastfred]

San Juan County is just south of Spanish valley they don't have shit going on and are happily approving any and all development to piss off grandcounty moab it's pretty funny

[4matic]

I have 4K sf for two people. GIrl has the whole upstairs with separate home theater, living space, guest suite. It might be too big but if you like personal privacy it’s great. Not to mention guests also have a full suite just like a hotel.

[schuss]

Eventually all of the arbitrage that seems to be happening must slow, right? A Californian moves here (bully for them!), driving up local prices bc they sold their 800sf bungalow in Oakland for $2M. Who bought that bungalow? Someone from SF? Then who's buying that person's place, etc?

Maybe I'm just being simple minded, here, but at some point housing costs need to have SOME connection to peoples' incomes in the local area, right?

Anyway, we're not going to be able to build our way out of this anytime soon. I could build houses and make bank but I'd rather just go ride my bike. Plus there's this:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/...prices/621288/

Let me introduce you to technology venture capital and related returns...

"In 2021, U.S. investments in venture capital exceeded $300 billion for the first time, nearly doubling 2020’s $166.6 billion figure, according to an early look at PitchBook’s fourth quarter venture monitor."
https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...ecords-in-2021

[Conundrum]

Not really. I looked at a lot of places during the carnage. But, no way I'll live in some places, no matter how cheap they are. I mean, Boise was pretty meh at 125,000, now it's absurd at 500,000.

C'mon now. We'd love to have you.

[Yukonrider]

Ban Airbnb and a significant portion of the supposed "shortage" will cure itself.

As much as I hate to say it, I agree with this. I believe pretty choking regulations of STRs will help ease the housing shortage. And not taxes those just increases prices, what I've seen work to some degree is city wide caps if not bans.

My libertarian beliefs, and desire to own STRs as an investor directly contradict the above though, so don't yell at me too much.

[skaredshtles]

I have 4K sf for two people. GIrl has the whole upstairs with separate home theater, living space, guest suite. It might be too big but if you like personal privacy it’s great. Not to mention guests also have a full suite just like a hotel.

[skaredshtles]

As much as I hate to say it, I agree with this.

I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?

[Yukonrider]

I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?

Drop in the bucket, but in my home town there is a 225 unit STR cap. Out of 8000 homes in town 3% are STRs.

In a time of increasing population we have essentially decreased housing stock by 3% in 3 years and that's with a cap (there's a 3 year wait list).

At the same time increasing the cost of a house (an STR can generate 3 to 5x the cash flow as an LTR) so a house that is worth say 100k to a long term investor is worth 200k to a short term investor. Then of course you have family home buyers, inflation, Califonication etc all compounding the issue.

That's just my small town highly seasonal Michigan market. The issue is even more stark in vacation towns where STR occupancy is higher and returns are better.

[mcphee]

Not really. I looked at a lot of places during the carnage. But, no way I'll live in some places, no matter how cheap they are. I mean, Boise was pretty meh at 125,000, now it's absurd at 500,000.

Fantastic post and philosophy.

[Toadman]

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8...20789894_zpid/

I was talking to the dude who just bought this property in LA for $1.2m and is trying to rent it out for $5k/month.

Him + wife are moving into the 400 sq ft ADU on the property, and he said they still will have to pay $800/month towards the mortgage. Long term he plans to do a cash out refinance, buy another property, rinse, repeat… easy as that, right?!?!

Seems to me like he is setting himself up for financial disaster. But hey, what do I know.

I’m sure there are plenty more people like this out there donating to the long-time CA resident relocation rescue fund

I know someone who was doing that exact same program pre-RE market crash. Then he got caught with the chair at the end of the music. Except that chair wasn't worth even half what he paid for it. He's just about back to square one now about a decade later.

The lot we bought in Bend was a similar story with a RE agent that was just buying up properties pre crash and then flipping them to home builders or people looking to buy the American dream. His misery was our gain though.

I guess that's Capitalism for you.

And I agree with whoever said we ain't building our way out of the housing shortage anytime soon. But they sure the hell are trying very hard here in my town! It's going to really suck for the building trades if and when things do stop or even just slow way down.

[muted reborn]

San Juan County is just south of Spanish valley they don't have shit going on and are happily approving any and all development to piss off grandcounty moab it's pretty funny

Like what? I don't see shit to buy there - 12 houses for sale now roughly in the county. Or is it all coming down the pipeline?

I mean... it can't *hurt* - but how many joints are actually STR's compared with the total? Is it really enough to make any difference? Or is it just a drop in the bucket?

It would make a massive difference in many small popular mountain towns. In other places like SLC, I'd guess it would be a drop in the bucket.