Real Estate Crash thread

[summit]

No, you should WRITE USAA and ask.

Simply to have their response in writing?

[fastfred]

So many of my college classmates really struggled with micro and macro economics 101. This thread is a constant reminder of that.

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Educate me please

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[sirbumpsalot]

Educate me please

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https://www.udemy.com/course/economi...ics-with-ease/

[RoooR]

So many of my college classmates really struggled with micro and macro economics 101. This thread is a constant reminder of that.

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TBF the macro environment right now is pretty insane. I don't think there's been a time in my life where super smart accomplished economists and investors have outlooks that vary more than right now.

[summit]

USAA absolutely insisted that their algorithm are absolutely correct and my rebuild cost would be ~$370/sqft and that it was precise for my local area, but if it wasn't they'd cover up to 25% extra for "inflation, code changes, and debris removal". When I said I doubted a contractor would even speak to them at that rate, they insisted that they could help negotiate good rates because they are a big company and can bring people in from other areas. That sounds like bullshit.

I insured at a higher rate/sqft (and the 25% protection is still there).

I figure I will turn down the coverage Nov->Apr when things aren't likely to catch fire. I can do it with a few clicks on the website.

[fastfred]

I know more than all these economists they are all trying to be smart and not be wrong at the same time that's not a good look

But hey I'm waiting for the crash so I can buy my retirement home anytime now and prices will be back to the more manageable levels of 4 years ago

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[RoooR]

Sure ya' do Fred. That's why you still need to work right?

[J. Barron DeJong]

TBF the macro environment right now is pretty insane. I don't think there's been a time in my life where super smart accomplished economists and investors have outlooks that vary more than right now.

Where were you in 2008-2012?

[jackstraw]

What economic event do you anticipate tanking housing nationally? In my 63 years I have seen a S&L crisis create a 30% decline in values (not sure why), local defense contractors leaving San Diego caused a 40% reduction in price during Clinton's first administration and of course the Liar Loan crisis.
Sure it can happen, but it takes a pretty major event that I just do not see coming unless the economy just massively shits the bed.

It always corrects. Always. This is somewhat unprecedented escalation especially when you look at wages also. Broken. But wtf do I know. I'm just a dentist.

[oldnew_guy]

USAA absolutely insisted that their algorithm are absolutely correct and my rebuild cost would be ~$350/sqft and that it was precise for my local area, but if it wasn't they'd cover up to 25% extra for "inflation, code changes, and debris removal". When I said I doubted a contractor would even speak to them at that rate, they insisted that they could help negotiate good rates because they are a big company and can bring people in from other areas. That sounds like bullshit.

I insured at 575/sqft (and the 25% protection is still there).

I figure I will turn down the coverage Nov->Apr when things aren't likely to catch fire. I can do it with a few clicks on the website.

So if you have an electrical fire in the winter you are willing to just eat the cost?

[schuss]

It always corrects. Always. This is somewhat unprecedented escalation especially when you look at wages also. Broken. But wtf do I know. I'm just a dentist.

Eh, Detroit and the Rust Belt might argue with "always corrects"

[ötzi]

It corrects (or at least has always corrected, historically) when there is a bubble. Detroit etc. are not exactly in a bubble.

[sirbumpsalot]

But hey I'm waiting for the crash so I can buy my retirement home anytime now and prices will be back to the more manageable levels of 4 years ago

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So is EVERYONE ELSE...which should tell you that there is more than enough money out there to keep whatever and wherever you want to buy...from ever getting to the price you want to buy it at.

DEMAND!

[RoooR]

Where were you in 2008-2012?

2008 was pretty straight forward compared to now. Commodity super cycle, re-shoring supply, interstate migration, war... Anybody that looks at all that and "knows" how it's going to play out is full of it.

[summit]

So if you have an electrical fire in the winter you are willing to just eat the cost?

If my house burns during the summer, then so did a lot of other houses, so costs go up.

It's relative risk of incidents and relative risk of increased costs. Both would be lower in the winter, so I could insure at a lower rate like 400-450/sqft.

[rideit]

Actually, I think here will continue to increase in price, as the inventory (new homes) is generally inelastic due to no land available, (with the exception of Nort South Park, but that won’t do squat). We also have water and cooler temps as the climate refugees seek higher ground globally. It’s fairly unique.

[rideit]

Aren’t we all trying to be smart and not be wrong at the same time?

[J. Barron DeJong]

2008 was pretty straight forward compared to now. Commodity super cycle, re-shoring supply hi, interstate migration, war... Anybody that looks at all that and "knows" how it's going to play out is full of it.

That’s a bit of an oversimplification, no?

I mean, there was a bunch of unprecedented shit happening during the collapse, and then during the recovery you had plenty of successful investors and respected economist arguing that everything the government was doing was going to lead to hyperinflation (freshwater economics view), and other successful investors and respected economists arguing the opposite, that not enough was being done and prices and employment were going to remain depressed (saltwater economics view).

[RoooR]

I guess... but was still mostly a binary argument then and still mostly about the effects of US policy. Now just seems there are left and right tail risks everywhere that no government can really hope to contain.

[J. Barron DeJong]

I guess... but was still mostly a binary argument then and still mostly about the effects of US policy. Now just seems there are left and right tail risks everywhere that no government can really hope to contain.

If I understand correctly, you’re saying that if you had the correct analytical framework back then, then you could predict the general state of things we’re headed during that time period? (However, there were plenty using the wrong analytical framework, and thus got it wrong.) But currently even if your framework is correct, the market is being pulled in multiple directions, so it’s difficult to predict where it’s headed?

[liv2ski]

I for one hope the doom sayers are correct, as I am not selling regardless, so if prices go down 50%, I am stoked for my kids. Even a 50% hit still leaves prices in the stoopid zone in So Cal.

[fastfred]

2008 was pretty straight forward compared to now. Commodity super cycle, re-shoring supply, interstate migration, war... Anybody that looks at all that and "knows" how it's going to play out is full of it.

I got it all figured out going to smoke a bowl in a few minutes go for a bike ride I will "know" exactly everything by the time the ride is over

I don't see an implosion

slow fizzle in consumer spending all summer into next year
stock market crashes one day peaks the next because it is not representative of anything truthful anymore it's just a roulette game and the dice land where they do
gdp will register in negative growth every quarter for the next year maybe a 1% gain late summer but xmas will be - 3% 2023 will be at 0-1%
the poor will get hammered even more
drug use and violence will rise for the next four years
the wave will roll onto the beach in october no big crash but it will be game over for many
stagnation for the next five years unless the gov't decides to start throwing money around like fuck ups on the verge of bankruptcy
real estate will be balls to the walls in certain parts of the country upstate ny not so pretty

[climberevan]

I agree with Fred on all points. If anything I'm more pessimistic. The civil unrest that will follow the inevitable continued overreach by the Cheeto party after they win the midterms will only make things worse. I too am heading out for a ride, but no bowl beforehand.

[rideit]

Lol, my parents bought a really, really amazing property in Dewitt/Syracuse in 1986 for ~$215k.
It is now worth about…$275k.
And they have made it even more super awesome. Some SU professor is going to get an insane bargain on a really cool house when they sell.

[fastfred]

Lol, my parents bought a really, really amazing property in Dewitt/Syracuse in 1986 for ~$215k.
It is now worth about…$275k.
And they have made it even more super awesome. Some SU professor is going to get an insane bargain on a really cool house when they sell.

I spit out my beer fuck yeah!