Real Estate Crash thread

[RoooR]

Education / highways / public land all have massive positive externalizes. The benefits of the interstate highway system have to be orders of magnitude than they cost to build and maintain.

[Benny Profane]

There were a lot of fortunes made by those that had advance notice where those interstate exits and exchanges would be built. Still are.

[neufox47]

You guys don’t get it. This one time, Montucky thought he saw really bad government waste. They were building schools, and they were fancier than just a cinderblock box. Now granted, Montucky has no qualifications to judge a builder’s design, plans, or approach, but he’s an expert and it was really bad. As a result, his expert solution is that the government shouldn’t do anything, including building schools. We will all be better off, but you are just a bunch of dumb libs. Never mind that waste is prevalent throughout the private industry, the government cannot be allowed to waste a nickel, especially on schools. Millionaires and billionaires need that money to fill their yacht gas tanks, pay for country clubs, etc.

To put this “waste” in perspective, the US’s most expensive school is a $578M school that is designed to teach 4,200 students. Assuming a useful life of 50 years (which is probably low, lots of schools over 50 in use), that is an astronomical cost of $2,750 per student, per year. How can America afford such excess?


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[summit]

You appear to have missed my point. I was saying they're not doing it just for some remote rancher. The TRUE underlying reason for it is so they can get to their thousands of ICBM's scattered all over the country, with multiple possible routes at that. Not to mention if SHTF, they can deploy assets wherever/however they can. Have you not seen the silos I'm talking about? Perhaps you haven't ventured too far North of I-90.

We only ever had a bit over 1000 silos, almost all Minutemen ICBMs. In the 1960s we had about 150 Atlas and 60 Titan II liquid fueled ICBMs. We had 50 MX in the 90s (converted Minutemen silos).

Most US silos are decomissioned.

Currently we have 450 active Minutemen III ICBM silos in 3 fields across 5 states (MT, ND, NE, CO and WY) and test/train silos at Vandenburg CA. Most of our active warheads are on sub launched missiles and bombs/missiles for aircraft.

Buying decommed Launch Facility properties is a whole other real estate gig.

The Russians and Chinese put a lot of their ICBMs on mobile launchers that they can drive around the countryside to make it harder for us to target them. We don't have that capability.

[skaredshtles]

Education / highways / public land all have massive positive externalizes. The benefits of the interstate highway system have to be orders of magnitude than they cost to build and maintain.

There is absolutely no doubt.

It's really a shame that we dumped/still dump all that money into roads instead of rails, though...

[RoooR]

There is absolutely no doubt.

It's really a shame that we dumped/still dump all that money into roads instead of rails, though...

I'm torn on that. Parts of the country would do well with more rail (NE megalopolis), but when people compare us to Germany / Japan / etc in terms of rail, they really underestimate just how empty the USA is. Germany has almost 7X the population density of the USA and Japan has 10X.

[skaredshtles]

I'm torn on that. Parts of the country would do well with more rail (NE megalopolis), but when people compare us to Germany / Japan / etc in terms of rail, they really underestimate just how empty the USA is. Germany has almost 7X the population density of the USA and Japan has 10X.

I mean... I'm no civil engineer, but it seems to me that regional rail could be connected together intelligently by a few, long, high speed connector lines. But it would take a federal commitment (like the Interstate Hwy system required) to making it happen.

Which makes me think it's unlikely to happen. Which is a shame.

Shit - we can't even convince the fucking morons up and down the Front Range that a high speed rail line would be an economic windfall for the smaller towns along the corridor...

[MontuckyFried]

You guys don’t get it. This one time, Montucky thought he saw really bad government waste. They were building schools, and they were fancier than just a cinderblock box. Now granted, Montucky has no qualifications to judge a builder’s design, plans, or approach, but he’s an expert and it was really bad. As a result, his expert solution is that the government shouldn’t do anything, including building schools. We will all be better off, but you are just a bunch of dumb libs. Never mind that waste is prevalent throughout the private industry, the government cannot be allowed to waste a nickel, especially on schools. Millionaires and billionaires need that money to fill their yacht gas tanks, pay for country clubs, etc.

To put this “waste” in perspective, the US’s most expensive school is a $578M school that is designed to teach 4,200 students. Assuming a useful life of 50 years (which is probably low, lots of schools over 50 in use), that is an astronomical cost of $2,750 per student, per year. How can America afford such excess?

Lol @ $2750/student. If only it were that cheap and simple. How about annual operating budgets on top of that. Remodels. Tech overhauls. Wife's school district spent MILLIONS rolling out these nice Smartboards (as opposed to the chalkboards and white boards we all had growing up). They pair with the teachers' computers, projectors, and software, so NOT cheap. Literally as soon as the last ones went into the classrooms and teachers were all trained up on them, the school district did some huge multi-million dollar contract to replace them with the latest and greatest effective immediately. Teachers weren't stoked. Just another example of very typical govt spending.

And perhaps you missed the part where I mentioned that other proposals existed. I did not say "Don't build a new school." I simply wanted everyone to take a serious look at all of the possibilities and give the others a fair shake. You also don't know the details, but let's just say the millionaires/billionaires you mention are who were PRECISELY behind everything. It was one big circle jerk with all the richest people calling all the shots and making sure they get their own pockets lined. Nothing new, though. Tale as old as time. Just an easy example. It's across the board from little municipalities to the Feds.

[Benny Profane]

I mean... I'm no civil engineer, but it seems to me that regional rail could be connected together intelligently by a few, long, high speed connector lines. But it would take a federal commitment (like the Interstate Hwy system required) to making it happen.

Which makes me think it's unlikely to happen. Which is a shame.

Shit - we can't even convince the fucking morons up and down the Front Range that a high speed rail line would be an economic windfall for the smaller towns along the corridor...

You need the federal government to claim all the land needed under eminent domain.

[skaredshtles]

You need the federal government to claim all the land needed under eminent domain.

Yup. And can you imagine the frothing that would cause amongst a certain segment of the population?

[MontuckyFried]

I mean... I'm no civil engineer, but it seems to me that regional rail could be connected together intelligently by a few, long, high speed connector lines. But it would take a federal commitment (like the Interstate Hwy system required) to making it happen.

Which makes me think it's unlikely to happen. Which is a shame.

Shit - we can't even convince the fucking morons up and down the Front Range that a high speed rail line would be an economic windfall for the smaller towns along the corridor...

Believe it or not, I'm a huge proponent of rail when it makes sense, as I've seen it done marvelously and have ridden them extensively in places like Japan and Germany. HOWEVER, strategically I'm not sure how realistic it is to compare when Honshu (Japan's largest island) is only about 140 miles wide at its widest point and about 800 miles long from North to South. That's a helluva lot easier to connect than the US which is close to 3000 miles wide and 1600 miles North to South, with vast swathes of unpopulated land.

Having been in the Right-of-Way biz, I understand that even if utilizing imminent domain when needed, high speed rail would be such an overwhelming undertaking. I mean, even in places where such things have been approved, it's been a total boondoggle (See: California). Again, I would LOVE to have bullet trains running all over the US. I'm all over it. I just don't see how it can feasibly be pulled off in this modern era of red tape, bureaucracy, etc., ie massively inflated costs and TIME to complete over what it would've been 60-80+ years ago when we used to successfully pull off projects of gargantuan scales.

[abraham]

I mean... I'm no civil engineer, but it seems to me that regional rail could be connected together intelligently by a few, long, high speed connector lines. But it would take a federal commitment (like the Interstate Hwy system required) to making it happen.

Which makes me think it's unlikely to happen. Which is a shame.

Shit - we can't even convince the fucking morons up and down the Front Range that a high speed rail line would be an economic windfall for the smaller towns along the corridor...

Both might be with reading, they aren't long.
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...ed-railroading
https://www.economist.com/the-econom...ns-ride-trains

[AdironRider]

I think a lot of people giving Montucky crap over school funding live in areas with a very different cultural mindset towards school and education and live in areas that have already outgrown the backroom good ol boy bullshit with school boards that still exists in large swaths of the country.

The things Montucky has dealt with in Montana would never fly in the cities of the PNW, at least so blatantly. I've seen similar to Montucky down here in Wydaho also. For example, our school system got scammed during the construction of the new middle school to the tune of about 250k. The superintendent brought in his friend as a consultant to fix it, who immediately hired his own kid as the accounts payable person replacement. No one batted an eye at it. That shit would have been a massive boondoggle where I grew up in the Northeast and parents would be overflowing from the school board meetings after that, but nope, no real qualms from the community here. I was pretty disappointed about it when I was the only one who showed up at the meeting, and I didn't even have kids yet.

A lot of the mountain west is growing rapidly and positions like school board, which used to be passed down by generations to friends and acquaintances, because no one cared about education after high school, in effect still are handed down that way. They cared their kids knew how many bushels would fit in the tractor and that was that. Culturally, there is definitely a mindset where people care more about how rad their kid is at skiing or mountain biking, and oh yeah sure he reads alright. I see it now. I haven't been to a single dinner party in Teton Valley where the schools are talked about at all. Not one. But you sure are going to know immediately who's kid dropped Corbet's at 5 years old. I brought up the scam situation once and people couldn't change the topic fast enough. It was weird.

[RoooR]

Shit - we can't even convince the fucking morons up and down the Front Range that a high speed rail line would be an economic windfall for the smaller towns along the corridor...

That is one I'm 100% for. The relief on that road and the lives saved in accidents. Convincing somebody from Denver to take rail to Vail should be pretty easy. Convincing somebody from Missoula to take it to Albuquerque is a harder sell.

[Benny Profane]

Yup. And can you imagine the frothing that would cause amongst a certain segment of the population?

Just a small example. The Acela, America's only supposedly "high speed" train that connects D.C. to Boston with Baltimore, Philly, and NY in between, runs through some incredibly valuable real estate. I used to work close to it in Greenwich, CT.. At that point, it runs on the fringe of a very expensive golf club. Imagine the uproar from the members there, many lawyers I assume, who would shout a collective "Do you know who we are?!" Now, multiply that legal battle by ten thousand.
It's why that high speed train in California goes from nowhere to nowhere.

[Benny Profane]

That is one I'm 100% for. The relief on that road and the lives saved in accidents. Convincing somebody from Denver to take rail to Vail should be pretty easy. Convincing somebody from Missoula to take it to Albuquerque is a harder sell.

Not when Southwest or somebody does it for 50 bucks.

[MontuckyFried]

I think a lot of people giving Montucky crap over school funding live in areas with a very different cultural mindset towards school and education and live in areas that have already outgrown the backroom good ol boy bullshit with schools boards that still exists in large swaths of the country.

The things Montucky has dealt with in Montana would never fly in the cities of the PNW, at least so blatantly. I've seen similar to Montucky down here in Wydaho also. For example, our school system got scammed during the construction of the new middle school to the tune of about 250k. The superintendent brought in his friend as a consultant to fix it, who immediately hired his own kid as the accounts payable person replacement. No one batted an eye at it. That shit would have been a massive boondoggle where I grew up in the Northeast and parents would be overflowing from the school board meetings after that, but nope, no real qualms from the community here. I was pretty disappointed about it when I was the only one who showed up at the meeting, and I didn't even have kids yet.

A lot of the mountain west is growing rapidly and positions like school board, which used to be passed down by generations to friends and acquaintances, because no one cared about education after high school. They cared their kids knew how many bushels would fit in the tractor and that was that. Culturally, there is definitely a mindset where people care more about how rad their kid is at skiing or mountain biking, and oh yeah sure he reads alright. I see it now. I haven't been to a single dinner party in Teton Valley where the schools are talked about at all. Not one. But you sure are going to know immediately who's kid dropped Corbet's at 5 years old. I brought up the scam situation once and people couldn't change the topic fast enough. It was weird.

You nailed it!!! Similar towns. Similar situations. And your last sentences rang particularly true. Can't harsh the vibe (er status quo), ya kno! That was very much my experience.

[MontuckyFried]

It's why that high speed train in California goes from nowhere to nowhere.

Ding ding ding! Yup!

[Meadow Skipper]

Excellent viewpoint Montucky! People should pay taxes proportional to what they receive back. So everyone living in Montana should have their federal taxes jacked up considerably because they are driving on roads that are proportionally used much less than those in large urban environments. Everyone in rural America should be paying more in taxes. Great take.

And people from urban areas should get their taxes boosted for recreating in rural areas, and because their foods, raw materials, etc. are transported to urban areas from rural ones.

[skaredshtles]

Believe it or not, I'm a huge proponent of rail when it makes sense, as I've seen it done marvelously and have ridden them extensively in places like Japan and Germany. HOWEVER, strategically I'm not sure how realistic it is to compare when Honshu (Japan's largest island) is only about 140 miles wide at its widest point and about 800 miles long from North to South. That's a helluva lot easier to connect than the US which is close to 3000 miles wide and 1600 miles North to South, with vast swathes of unpopulated land.

I don't know who is comparing theoretical rail in the U.S. to actual rail in Japan... it sure isn't me.

Having been in the Right-of-Way biz, I understand that even if utilizing imminent domain when needed, high speed rail would be such an overwhelming undertaking. I mean, even in places where such things have been approved, it's been a total boondoggle (See: California). Again, I would LOVE to have bullet trains running all over the US. I'm all over it. I just don't see how it can feasibly be pulled off in this modern era of red tape, bureaucracy, etc., ie massively inflated costs and TIME to complete over what it would've been 60-80+ years ago when we used to successfully pull off projects of gargantuan scales.

This is all a bunch of bullshit. All it would take is the national WILL to do it and commitment. Instead of spending 3/4 of a trillion dollars every year on the military industrial complex, spend it on *actual* functional infrastructure that would help the nation.

Throwing our hands up never got us anywhere.

[Meadow Skipper]

You haven't met every woman. My quest the past few years has been simplifying. Tossing stuff out. Trying to be less sentimental. It's hard for sure and perhaps the fact women tend to be more sentimental overall is the reasoning. On things that were sentimental to my mother, she sent to me, crap like my baby shoes, first stuffed animal, etc. I detest clutter, always have. But the older I get, I noticed things sticking around longer than they should. I don't have children to pass along this crap to, so in the dumpster they go. Someone posted a cartoon a few pages back- "someday son, this will be all yours" with the old man and a garage full of shit. Made me laugh. It truly goes both ways.

The woman I’m currently seeing is a model of Spartan-ism. I’m like the old guy with the garage full of shit.

[Meadow Skipper]

No, it was building an infrastructure for the auto industry to dramatically grow with and profit from. Well, jobs, too.

Because that auto industry needed to recover after WW2?

[Benny Profane]

I don't know who is comparing theoretical rail in the U.S. to actual rail in Japan... it sure isn't me.


This is all a bunch of bullshit. All it would take is the national WILL to do it and commitment. Instead of spending 3/4 of a trillion dollars every year on the military industrial complex, spend it on *actual* functional infrastructure that would help the nation.

Throwing our hands up never got us anywhere.

Dude, we can't even get half of the people to wear masks and get vaccinated during a plague.

[Benny Profane]

Because that auto industry needed to recover after WW2?

They did quite well during WW2, and, thank the lord, because that's basically how we beat Hitler and the Japanese, by just throwing plane after plane and ships at them long after they lost their capacity to do the same. But, hey, war is money.

[skaredshtles]

That is one I'm 100% for. The relief on that road and the lives saved in accidents. Convincing somebody from Denver to take rail to Vail should be pretty easy.

I'm talking about a rail line from Cheyenne to Trinidad. We'd need to hire the Swiss to get a train from Denver to Grand Junction.