Real Estate Crash thread

[jackstraw]

I don’t like this argument very much. It ignores the fact that 1, most people are employed by large employers, who use this argument to keep paying their employees shitty wages. 2, with all the shaming of people who don’t want to come back to work for shot wages,nobody seems to think there is a moral imperative to pay the people who are giving you control of their housing and healthcare a wage that allows them to, you know, afford a house and health insurance. If you can’t survive without exploiting your workers or the environment then maybe you need to find a new business.

Ok, but we're still talking small businesses, not large. I don't even know the definition anymore, but at one time I believe it was less than 250 or 500 employees. I assume the metrics vary.

I've run a couple of small businesses and one was a preschool with my wife while I also worked a full-time job. In seven years my wife's highest income was 24k in one year. Every teacher (with their masters btw) working for us made 35-40k, which is pure shit. That whole industry is fucked. It absolutely should be subsidized by the government. There is no way to make money unless you have a factory with large start-up costs. This is children in their prime brain development years!

But I've also worked with a company in the 100-125 employees that was well established, but the numbers are still tough. The gross margin is around 20% and a net of often less than 1%.

Every business is different so it's very difficult to lump them into one box. We just leased some property to a distillery and via their business plan, the projected gross margins are through the roof.

We need all different types of businesses to make the world go around and they all have different revenue and profits streaming in.

And oh yeah, FUCK AMAZON

[Meadow Skipper]

Well, if people were seriously involved maybe they wouldn’t elect assholes.

[sirbumpsalot]

Been there, done that. Went to all the community meetings and school board sessions about schools being built. I saw the bloat and blatant good ol' boy cronyism going on. I publicly called it out. The process to select a builder and designs were a complete and total sham. The board (who had members certainly in bed with the contractors) had their minds made up already. Went exactly the way we all knew it would. They "take questions" but they give you the same BS patronizing responses, and it's all in one ear and out the other. Same exact thing was lather, rinse, repeat for the local town hospital. They knew who they were gonna use on all fronts, who to build, who to stamp their name on it. But they dragged us through the same phony process all the same.

It's discouraging. You can get as involved as you want to as a citizen, campaign and appeal to the townfolk all you want (I made phone calls, I went door to door to talk to folks, I talked to board members, leaders, staff), but ultimately cronyism prevails, and THAT'S what drives up our local taxes to obscene levels. I don't mind taxes. I DO mind unnecessary bloat, like the most luxurious of silly finishes on an elementary school and paying the builder tens of millions, while blatantly screwing over the teachers and staff on pay. Million dollar Foucault pendulum at the middle school entrance here? Yeah, no. Cool, but unnecessary. I think that little middle school was somewhere around 50 million. Uhhhh, no.

The mindblowing part is actually that all those people you refer to....get re-elected over and over despite this.

[54-46]

Been there, done that. Went to all the community meetings and school board sessions about schools being built. I saw the bloat and blatant good ol' boy cronyism going on. I publicly called it out. The process to select a builder and designs were a complete and total sham. The board (who had members certainly in bed with the contractors) had their minds made up already. Went exactly the way we all knew it would. They "take questions" but they give you the same BS patronizing responses, and it's all in one ear and out the other. Same exact thing was lather, rinse, repeat for the local town hospital. They knew who they were gonna use on all fronts, who to build, who to stamp their name on it. But they dragged us through the same phony process all the same.

It's discouraging. You can get as involved as you want to as a citizen, campaign and appeal to the townfolk all you want (I made phone calls, I went door to door to talk to folks, I talked to board members, leaders, staff), but ultimately cronyism prevails, and THAT'S what drives up our local taxes to obscene levels. I don't mind taxes. I DO mind unnecessary bloat, like the most luxurious of silly finishes on an elementary school and paying the builder tens of millions, while blatantly screwing over the teachers and staff on pay. Million dollar Foucault pendulum at the middle school entrance here? Yeah, no. Cool, but unnecessary. I think that little middle school was somewhere around 50 million. Uhhhh, no.

Not my overall experience having represented dozens of school districts over 16 years, but could see how experience with one or two poorly run districts could generate such a response.

Kind of a narrow experience to paint all public entities or school districts with that brush, though…

[old_newguy]

Montucky just described commenting on a design build process at the 75-90% design level and being irritated he couldn’t get anything changed.

[RoooR]

Is immigration the only....or even the main ingredient to a strong economy????? Asking for a friend.

I can't speak about Europe, but in the USA immigration is a KEY driver of economic growth. They start more businesses than the native born population, come up with more innovations / scientific discoveries. Their children have higher levels of educational attainment. Also they are usually young AND have kids, and has been mentioned we need more taxpayers and workers.

[old_newguy]

In my experience it’s typically the public driving up the cost of public projects. “ we can’t have any traffic delays, it has to look like Y, it needs to also do X, please add this other thing even though you are at 90% plans, please spend a bunch of money redesigning even though we told you to do it the way it is designed.”

And no matter what you design or plan, there is always a Montucky at one end of the spectrum (it’s too much or not enough) who will complain.

[altasnob]

Excellent viewpoint Montucky! People should pay taxes proportional to what they receive back. So everyone living in Montana should have their federal taxes jacked up considerably because they are driving on roads that are proportionally used much less than those in large urban environments. Everyone in rural America should be paying more in taxes. Great take.

[MontuckyFried]

The mindblowing part is actually that all those people you refer to....get re-elected over and over despite this.

Or rather what I learned is that certain people are placed in these positions BECAUSE of this. A modern day Ouroboros of sorts.

Not my overall experience having represented dozens of school districts over 16 years, but could see how experience with one or two poorly run districts could generate such a response.

Kind of a narrow experience to paint all public entities or school districts with that brush, though…

Yeah. Definitely a broad brush, but at least perhaps we can now appreciate each others perspectives a bit more and how we come to our various opinions.

Montucky just described commenting on a design build process at the 75-90% design level and being irritated he couldn’t get anything changed.

Not quite. I saw the process from A to Z. From when the ideas to construct a new school or whatever was just a figment of everyone's imagination all the way through to completion. I saw how various builders would present a variety of plans and proposals, but really all but one of them were having their time wasted as the boards had their minds made up already before the process even began. Was maddening to see reputable competitors present REALLY solid, efficient, cost-effective designs, just to be cast aside without being taken seriously. Again, it makes one question how effective we can be as community members on these matters when local cronyism is King.

[MontuckyFried]

Excellent viewpoint Montucky! People should pay taxes proportional to what they receive back. So everyone living in Montana should have their federal taxes jacked up considerably because they are driving on roads that are proportionally used much less than those in large urban environments. Everyone in rural America should be paying more in taxes. Great take.

You DO understand that the original and stated purpose of the US interstate highway system is for defense, right? It just provides enough economic/personal benefit that we have the benefit of their use. As to the rural Montana highways, go do a tour of remote central Montana sometime. You might see random USAF MP humvees putting around out there in the middle of nowhere. You may ask yourself, WTF are these guys doing all the way out here? Then jog your brain a bit and think back on the Cold War. Yeah. The Feds aren't simply pumping money into maintaining highways out there just for a remote county in BFE with a population of 2 people and maybe some tractors.

[skaredshtles]

Yo. I'm actually not saying my opinion is correct on this one

[old_newguy]

Classic.

[dunfree]

You DO understand that the original and stated purpose of the US interstate highway system is for defense, right? It just provides enough economic/personal benefit that we have the benefit of their use. As to the rural Montana highways, go do a tour of remote central Montana sometime. You might see random USAF MP humvees putting around out there in the middle of nowhere. You may ask yourself, WTF are these guys doing all the way out here? Then jog your brain a bit and think back on the Cold War. Yeah. The Feds aren't simply pumping money into maintaining highways out there just for a remote county in BFE with a population of 2 people and maybe some tractors.

Nah, it was never really about defense. 90% of intercity travel was by car in 1940, it was about making people’s lives better after the war.

[dunfree]

I can't speak about Europe, but in the USA immigration is a KEY driver of economic growth. They start more businesses than the native born population, come up with more innovations / scientific discoveries. Their children have higher levels of educational attainment. Also they are usually young AND have kids, and has been mentioned we need more taxpayers and workers.

And, importantly, this covers all types of immigrants. Refugees and illegals included.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> The Feds aren't simply pumping money into maintaining highways out there just for a remote county in BFE with a population of 2 people and maybe some tractors.

Actually - that's exactly what they are doing.

You were just complaining earlier about bloat and cronyism... and yet... here you are. Would it surprise you to know that there's a LOT of that going on in the $700 billion dollar defense budget?

Sometimes I wonder if you're as dumb IRL as you are on TRG.

[MontuckyFried]

Actually - that's exactly what they are doing.

You were just complaining earlier about bloat and cronyism... and yet... here you are. Would it surprise you to know that there's a LOT of that going on in the $700 billion dollar defense budget?

Yes, numbnuts. Having worked for the DoD, I understand Federal bloat all too well. Being a Federal employee and witnessing how they spend and budget first hand is a hudge part of how I went from being a young liberal to a very fiscal conservative. See: JSF F-35 program. They've just about been screwing that chicken since 'Nam.

[MontuckyFried]

Actually - that's exactly what they are doing.

You appear to have missed my point. I was saying they're not doing it just for some remote rancher. The TRUE underlying reason for it is so they can get to their thousands of ICBM's scattered all over the country, with multiple possible routes at that. Not to mention if SHTF, they can deploy assets wherever/however they can. Have you not seen the silos I'm talking about? Perhaps you haven't ventured too far North of I-90.

[Jax]

You must be single too. I've never met a woman that can't help but to continually buy "stuff" and need more and more space to display it or store it.

You haven't met every woman. My quest the past few years has been simplifying. Tossing stuff out. Trying to be less sentimental. It's hard for sure and perhaps the fact women tend to be more sentimental overall is the reasoning. On things that were sentimental to my mother, she sent to me, crap like my baby shoes, first stuffed animal, etc. I detest clutter, always have. But the older I get, I noticed things sticking around longer than they should. I don't have children to pass along this crap to, so in the dumpster they go. Someone posted a cartoon a few pages back- "someday son, this will be all yours" with the old man and a garage full of shit. Made me laugh. It truly goes both ways.

[Benny Profane]

Nah, it was never really about defense. 90% of intercity travel was by car in 1940, it was about making people’s lives better after the war.

No, it was building an infrastructure for the auto industry to dramatically grow with and profit from. Well, jobs, too.

[summit]

One of my good friends is building a house near A Basin that will have two units. One the will be a LTR. The other they will use as their second home. Incentivizing those type of configurations could significantly add to the local supply of housing. County has been a huge pita to deal with. Project has been delayed over a year due to county.

Targeted incentives for LTRs work a lot better and cause less harm than untargeted restrictions on STRs.

[old_newguy]

Yes, numbnuts. Having worked for the DoD, I understand Federal bloat all too well. Being a Federal employee and witnessing how they spend and budget first hand is a hudge part of how I went from being a young liberal to a very fiscal conservative. See: JSF F-35 program. They've just about been screwing that chicken since 'Nam.

The waste in the DOD is orders of magnitude greater than probably every school district put together.

[mcphee]

i fucking LOVE this thread

[skaredshtles]

The waste in the DOD is orders of magnitude greater than probably every school district put together.

I suspect that Montucky votes for conservative politicians so that we'll get defense spending under control.

Oh, wait.

[altasnob]

Montucky, there is lots of examples in the tax code where people get back more than they put in (schools, highway, infrastructure spending, ect.). But this doesn't bug me. I am glad Montana has their highways and infrastructure subsidized by big cities because I think it benefits all Americans to have a robust highway system. Just like I think it benefits all Americans to have a well educated workforce.

And regarding school board cronyism. If it really bugs you, create a website, make public records requests, put facts up on the website that make your point with supporting evidence. Send the cite to your local paper. Send it to friends. Post it on facebook. I guarantee that will have a much bigger effect fighting cronyism that just attending the meetings. People never do this (because it requires effort).

[altasnob]

Back to real estate, from 2013 to 2020, Seattle grew faster than the suburbs surrounding it. For all the years before 2013, the suburbs grew faster. Through April 2021, the suburbs are back growing faster than Seattle. End of the urban renaissance?

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...attle-in-2021/