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  1. #7601
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    Feb 2015
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    Boston
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    2,831

    Real Estate Crash thread

    Most of NE’s residential is selling above prior highs, often way above in higher end communities. Greater Boston (metro west, wtf?), Southern NH, Southern ME, RI (Providence is bumpin) etc, urban areas where about 75% of the population lives. I suppose I’m not certain about CT, but that isn’t really NE anyways. VT slow as usual but no one lives there. Whether or not it’s overvalued, shrug
    Last edited by Self Jupiter; 09-12-2019 at 09:58 PM.

  2. #7602
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    Aug 2016
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    1,970
    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    I agree just giving you shit. Denver is overpriced imo relative to what it offers. Same for Seattle & SF.
    Compared to what? Bumfuck secondary and tertiary communitys in the west? I've seen zero evidence those secondary and tertiary communitys are willing to change to sustainably grow and maintain a comparative QOL advantage. They aren't just doubling down on the planning fuckups of California and Oregon and Washington they are largely tripling down on them. Bozeman? An expensive vis a vis wages sprawling suburban hole in the mountains proximate to increasingly crowded recreation. Ugh.

    It's great to think of a future where all those trust fund millennials fight over the same dozen awesome ski towns in the west that are overcrowded and unsustainable with little developable land within a 30 minute drive forcing people to the flatland dumps of Idaho or Colorado so they can fund fastfred and rideits retirement .... but is that what the millenials want? Are those FIREs going to be able to keep going?

  3. #7603
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    We're contrast monkeys so I'm comparing to SLC in terms of quasi-active 9-5er QoL.

  4. #7604
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    Aug 2016
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    outside of nature access to mountains & desert SLC is a dump. with comparatively low salary. if by "active" you mean "likes mountains" yes, it's still better. I see "likes mountains" as a declining pool of people. it's TGR so everyone talks their book (see rideit).

    the data is there to show the shakeout from california is lower income "lower skill" workers. the "best and brightest" are still going there, and Seattle, etc. etc. so if you think things are going to change it's far more than just a shuffling of seats.

    not that I'm a huge fan of SF or Seattle these days, just pointing out that if you think they are going to crash there are huge economic implications across the US because our internet overlords have been the best and biggest and brightest sources of $ growth.

  5. #7605
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    Dec 2008
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    Jackson is the citadel for mountain people. The beacon on the hill.

  6. #7606
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    Dec 2003
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    Nhampshire
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    5,584
    Greater Boston metro up to Portland is above prior highs as the tech/robotics/AI boom has poured money into Boston and Portland finally has more companies with decent jobs. It will correct, but based on incomes in southern NH, I'd only expect a 5-10% correction in NH.

  7. #7607
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,393
    Maybe now that we are pretty much past peak unicorn with this stupid Wework thing walking around with it's pants around it's ankles and Uber and Lyft licking their wounds, the tech money won't be flowing so freely.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  8. #7608
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    Oct 2003
    Location
    Wet and Mild
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    4,678
    As someone who has lived in/around both, I would live in the greater SLC area over greater Seattle every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Western Washington blows. Shit weather(and FTR, it isn't the rain that bothers me, it's that there aren't any fucking seasons out here. Three weeks of high pressure doesn't constitute summer, just like 6 months of 50 degrees and drizzly isn't winter by any sane definition. The weather is damn near the same year round; it never gets hot, it never gets cold, it's fucking garbage), criminally overcrowded, regressive state taxes, entitled, aloof residents, shitty drivers, the list goes on.

    As far as day-to-day livability goes, it's neck and neck with New Jersey. Congestion is rapidly making this area unlivable, and I have a 4 mile commute. Despite hellish, human-choked reality which confronts everyone who lives here anytime they venture outside the confines of their homes, every planner and city council member across the region is lining up to give a nice sloppy rimjob to any developer who wants to shoehorn more housing into a region that is already critically exceeded its human carrying capacity.

    "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of cancer," and western Washington has a terminal case.
    Set my compass North, I got Winter in my blood.

  9. #7609
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
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    1,152
    Hahaha dude you need some pussy. What a miserable guy. Every time I see you post it’s bitching and mostly about the PNW.
    Go the fuck home then
    Are dumb or just like to be miserable?

  10. #7610
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    your vacation
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    it's all about supply and demand right now denver is mellowing out because all the people who can afford a 500k shit box suburban ranch home have bought there is not too many people left that can buy that kind of house

    metro denver isn't going to drop in price it's just going to reset to a more sustainable level

    housing costs, even that 30 year old shit box are driven by today's contruction costs which no one has figured out how to offshore so labor and material costs are high and only getting higher
    I love the statement we are going to build some "affordable housing" well thats a line a shit, due to buiding codes construction costs of multifamily is through the roof the days of building a cheap eightplex are long gone, you can't just have a nice open attic where the flames from apt b can race over to apartment e

    mountain town real estate has been driven by the short term rental craze, what is the profit of buying a unit, creating a short term rental, getting to use it and making money
    they have been using this bullshit line for forty years up here, "there is a limited amount of developable land" well that's total bullshit, land swaps with the gov't are all to common, look at the dog shit they are throwing up around keystone
    summit county colorado will double in the number of units and beds, sure not everyone is going to get a single family home on a nice lot, but density is what it's all about if you think it's bad today it's only going to get worse

  11. #7611
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    Dec 2016
    Posts
    1,152

    Real Estate Crash thread

    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Yup. When I saw all the banks roll out the Liar Loans in 2003/04 I closed my mortgage company down, as I didn't want to risk huge buy backs on fraudulent origination's. That never happened, buybacks that is, so I should of stayed open. Instead I went to work for a bank as a wholesale AE. During my interview I told the VP that when all those loans blew up in a few years, I would handle their REOs for them. She gave me a horrified look and said "don't ever say that to anyone at the bank".
    Knowing there was going to be defaults in 03/04 does not equate to knowing Credit Default Swaps were going to help topple the economy. Everyone in the biz writing loans in that time frame saw the defaults. Heck we were putting loans together saving people who were sitting 120 days delinquent and even NODs (notice of default on title). What are the chances those guys were going to pull their head out and not spend their mortgage elsewhere? Never heard of a CDS when I was in the trenches (‘01-‘11) until it was main street news.

  12. #7612
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    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    5,998
    ^^yup. Housing was the spark that lit the financial crisis and seems so apparent now, but that spark could have been a regular housing issue if not for hedge funds, banks, pensions, regulators and legislators, ratings agencies, and leverage combined to form the right cocktail.
    Decisions Decisions

  13. #7613
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    Hahaha dude you need some pussy. What a miserable guy. Every time I see you post it’s bitching and mostly about the PNW.
    Go the fuck home then
    Are dumb or just like to be miserable?
    I just call it the way I see it. The truth hurts. And don't you worry, I'll be making my way out as soon as I'm fully vested in my retirement plan. Can't be leaving money on the table, even in an overrated, overhyped, mildewy shithole.
    Set my compass North, I got Winter in my blood.

  14. #7614
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    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
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    25,187
    Quote Originally Posted by fastfred View Post
    mountain town real estate has been driven by the short term rental craze, what is the profit of buying a unit, creating a short term rental, getting to use it and making money
    they have been using this bullshit line for forty years up here, "there is a limited amount of developable land" well that's total bullshit, land swaps with the gov't are all to common, look at the dog shit they are throwing up around keystone
    I dunno, the parks and the FS aren't swapping their land anytime soon.
    Why do you think everyone is moving to Victor and Alpine?
    And why do you think the Dual immersion school is at Hog Island?
    If a land swap were feasable, it would have been done already, IMO.
    StokePimpin' ain't easy

  15. #7615
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    Dec 2016
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    1,152
    I can not deny; Seattle is not the same place it was 15+ yrs ago. It’s getting pretty tight up here and the traffic has been bonkers starting about 6 yrs ago. There are always compromises it seems.
    Anyhow keeping sharing your experience and you’ll be doing me a favor if some people second guess and move elsewhere.

  16. #7616
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    294
    My company, which is on the east side, but still “Seattle”, just gave 13 electrical engineers the choice of relocating to Duluth GA (Atlanta exurb) or a severance package. Every single one took the severance. None of them are big time skiers or mountain bikers. They just like living up here with the slugs and snails.
    U.P.: up

  17. #7617
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    Dec 2016
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    1,152
    Quote Originally Posted by stradissimo View Post
    My company, which is on the east side, but still “Seattle”, just gave 13 electrical engineers the choice of relocating to Duluth GA (Atlanta exurb) or a severance package. Every single one took the severance. None of them are big time skiers or mountain bikers. They just like living up here with the slugs and snails.
    Not to mention the job market here for EEs is jumping I would think

  18. #7618
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    Aug 2011
    Location
    Der Town
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    6,431
    The smell of the sea air is addictive, glade if you grew up in western Washington you might like the gloom and wet a bit more.

  19. #7619
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    Jan 2010
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    Seattle
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    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    Not to mention the job market here for EEs is jumping I would think
    Surly. They all found jobs, even the over-60-year-olds.
    U.P.: up

  20. #7620
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leavenworth Skier View Post
    The smell of the sea air is addictive, glade if you grew up in western Washington you might like the gloom and wet a bit more.

    This thread is about real estate and not me, but I truly don't mind the clouds and wet weather, it's the fact that the climate here is mind-numbingly temperate. And fuck eastern Washington. You all have managed to convince yourselves that someplace as scenic as Kansas is gorgeous.

    I'm glad people like it though, you all can stay here and enjoy.
    Set my compass North, I got Winter in my blood.

  21. #7621
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    Jan 2010
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    your vacation
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    people are buying shitty 1985 pimped out linoleum and formica counter top townhomes here for over 700 sq ft still
    it's all about location
    walk down town walk to the lift

  22. #7622
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    Oct 2003
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    Big in Japan
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    36,393
    I'd buy one in Dillon if the price was realistic.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  23. #7623
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    Aug 2007
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    5,393
    and fastfred could remodel it for ya!

  24. #7624
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    don't forget to throw in a few extra bucks for life coaching

  25. #7625
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    Aug 2011
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    Der Town
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    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    This thread is about real estate and not me, but I truly don't mind the clouds and wet weather, it's the fact that the climate here is mind-numbingly temperate. And fuck eastern Washington. You all have managed to convince yourselves that someplace as scenic as Kansas is gorgeous.

    I'm glad people like it though, you all can stay here and enjoy.
    I moved out of state fwiw

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