Real Estate Crash thread

[AdironRider]

I get a chuckle at the contrast between pets.com then, and chewy.com now. Same fucking business, but one is held up an example of financial idiocy, and one we can no longer live without basically.

[RoooR]

“If you run into an asshole in the morning, you ran into an asshole. If you run into assholes all day, you're the asshole.”

Most people in this country are nice, decent people trying to do the best they know how. That's true across all races, religions, income levels, and political ideologies. Approaching interactions with your new neighbors with that in mind can certainly help. In my little slice of paradise we're not immune to the new influx of people. But that also means that my friends that own local businesses are getting a much needed boost in these uncertain economic times. Our local trail building and advocacy organization is seeing an influx of new donations this year to build and maintain our local tail network. Local artists actually have customers that can actually afford art. We have more people writing FS comments to counter the aging Wilderness society members trying to close us out of back-country trails. If 15 years from now this place has become Park City? Well then I guess I'll have to find a way to make due with over 500 miles of single track and restaurants that I actually want to eat at.

[toastybroski]

I was worried about having a WFH job and losing it. I ended up taking a 50% pay cut and getting a gubment job before moving up here. Worth. Another 10k a year would sure be nice right now though.

[Dantheman]

ESPECIALLY since so many of these highly paid transplants happen to be tech peeps who can work from home. Remember the tech bubble that burst last time? Yeah, it can happen again and then BOOM! Gonna all come down like a house of cards. I can't wait!!!

I feel fairly confident saying that the current tech sector has no chance of collapsing like the Dot-com bubble did. Things so much more consolidated and entrenched now that even making the comparison seems ludicrous.

[yeahman]

I wish people in small towns knew what LA really is all about. It ain’t like you see on the tv shows. It’s seedy and sketchy.

There are some lessons that just have to be learned the hard way. According to her, a lot of social media "influencers" live in L.A. and I guess that's what attracts her. I think she's just expressing a desire to live somewhere other than Montana, somewhere more exciting, and I totally understand her feeling that way. Similarly, I moved Montana when I was 18 because growing up in a metropolitan area made me want to experience the opposite end of the spectrum. And so it goes.

[altasnob]

There are some lessons that just have to be learned the hard way. According to her, a lot of social media "influencers" live in L.A. and I guess that's what attracts her. I think she's just expressing a desire to live somewhere other than Montana, somewhere more exciting, and I totally understand her feeling that way. Similarly, I moved Montana when I was 18 because growing up in a metropolitan area made me want to experience the opposite end of the spectrum. And so it goes.

I've met lots of peeps from Montana in Seattle that came for the big city experience. Seems like a common theme. Most famous of which is Pearl Jam bassist Jeff Ament (Dad was mayor of Big Sandy, MT).

[ColMan]

I grew up in Hell A and there are parts of it I would definitely move to tomorrow, even though 90% of that metropolitan area needs to be nuked. If you love to attend "live music" shows, it is a great city and just a little closer to Mammoth depending on where you live.

Grew up in LA (west side) as well and there isn't a single place I would live (including the coast). I got the fuck out after graduating HS and haven't looked back. The lineups were so bad (even 20+ years ago) that I didn't miss surfing.

[Bobcat Sig]

The old adage, "The last person in wants to build the biggest fence," is no more true than it is here, in this thread.

For those of you in a mountain town; be glad for your place are and that you got in. There are those of us that once were and wish desperately to be back, despite all the growth.

Hell, you could be like me and spend nearly 20 years in a rad mountain town, only to leave right before the boom, pass on an undervalued home that has likely doubled in value in the last five years, have a growing need to return, and can't due to the exploded real estate market. Maybe one day, when the wife has had it with the school district, we pull up stakes and move back. But certainly not now, not with real estate prices and a complete lack of inventory.

[The AD]

This is a well written story, but anyone from NH can tell you that Grafton has always had no zoning laws or regulations of pretty much every kind. It didn't take Libertarians to ruin it, it was already the place where deadbeats and dropouts went because they didn't need to pay for permits or get their shanties inspected. The free staters just brought it to public attention.

I also take umbrage with the notion that politics in any way played a role in the bear population and the challenges they provide. We deal with that shit all the time in Jackson, the liberal oasis of Wyoming for example. The world most famous grizzly bear, 399, is currently moseying around just south of downtown for example and its big news as if she gets into trash she is getting put down.

But the guy sure can write.

I feel like there's no point even reading the actual book after reading that story.

Regarding the bears and politics I disagree. Regulations can certainly help curb problems with bears. Obviously if the bears are out there they're going to cause problems from time-to-time, but there are certainly mitigation measures: bear resistant garbage containers, etc.

[Benny Profane]

Pretty sure you can forget about a crash in mountain town prices. I thought, way back when this thread started and the RE market popped and the world's financial system crashed, great, at least I can score a cheap place near a cool mountain. I didn't move fast enough. It was a buyer's market, somewhat, in some places, for a year or so, but the whole market just went nuts for the next decade. If you looked around Vail and Breck and a lot of other mountains in 2011, you'd think, what recession? The top ten percent are most of skiers, and they did quite well, and are doing quite well right now. Low rates, as mentioned, will just keep that market inflated for another decade. A home in the hills is a smart diversification of one's asset holdings. The government rewards you with tax breaks, at the same time, except for the state of Vt., which hits the second home owners with extra property taxes to fund schools, as they should.

[XXX-er]

Thats the method i used ^^ except i did everything entirely at random, mostly moved to party/ chase tail ... am I smart or is it all just that arbitrary ?

[altasnob]

Maybe for the A list mountain towns. But there are many B list towns that are still affordable today (assuming you are bringing your money in, or work from home). Most small mountain towns near a ski area that is not on Ikon or Epic are still affordable. We're all just sheep attracted to the Bozemans, Bends, Jacksons, Aspens, ect. If you are waiting for a real estate crash to buy a place in the mountains you just need to think outside the box.

[anotherVTskibum]

Maybe for the A list mountain towns. But there are many B list towns that are still affordable today (assuming you are bringing your money in, or work from home). Most small mountain towns near a ski area that is not on Ikon or Epic are still affordable. We're all just sheep attracted to the Bozemans, Bends, Jacksons, Aspens, ect. If you are waiting for a real estate crash to buy a place in the mountains you just need to think outside the box.

It's relative. I just moved from a small town in Montana back to the small Maine (resort) town where folks live. That small town in Montana had seen huge growth in real estate costs, albeit not nearly as silly as Bozeman, and then things got straight up silly (again, not Bozeman-level stupid) after covid hit; the most immediate impact is that the renters looking for new places after their landlords cashed in are seriously struggling to find anything they can afford.

Meanwhile, the values here in Maine for anything attractive to skiers already went silly--condos that were $45k ish in the early 90s are going for three times that, and the construction quality certainly didn't improve in the meantime. I think we should pack up and move somewhere that's ten years earlier on the demand curve, but my wife doesn't want to go anywhere and right now, her job is a lot more stable than mine.

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[Greenstateofmind]

It's relative. I just moved from a small town in Montana back to the small Maine (resort) town where folks live. That small town in Montana had seen huge growth in real estate costs, albeit not nearly as silly as Bozeman, and then things got straight up silly (again, not Bozeman-level stupid) after covid hit; the most immediate impact is that the renters looking for new places after their landlords cashed in are seriously struggling to find anything they can afford.

Meanwhile, the values here in Maine for anything attractive to skiers already went silly--condos that were $45k ish in the early 90s are going for three times that, and the construction quality certainly didn't improve in the meantime. I think we should pack up and move somewhere that's ten years earlier on the demand curve, but my wife doesn't want to go anywhere and right now, her job is a lot more stable than mine.

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With global warming knocking on the door anyway, it might be a good time for a lake house and a ski boat in Indiana.

[altasnob]

This house just sold for $162,000 (4 beds, 2 baths, 1,704 Square Feet). It's less than 30 minutes from a ski area that gets 300 inches of snow a year and has world class mountain biking. I can find dozens more like this.

[Toadman]

Boy, I hope that ends up being the case. Looking forward to the next big mountain town crash so I can afford to return. Even IF I could afford current prices, no way I'd bother at this point in time. I smell a bubble and it ain't pretty. It's coming.

ESPECIALLY since so many of these highly paid transplants happen to be tech peeps who can work from home. Remember the tech bubble that burst last time? Yeah, it can happen again and then BOOM! Gonna all come down like a house of cards. I can't wait!!!

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So your cards won't going crashing down too? Do you own a gold mine?

[Toadman]

This house just sold for $162,000 (4 beds, 2 baths, 1,704 Square Feet). It's less than 30 minutes from a ski area that gets 300 inches of snow a year and has world class mountain biking. I can find dozens more like this.

Can you find one that's 20 minutes to 500" annual snowfall for that price? Also, needs to be at least 2,500 sq. f.t with a 3 car garage. Asking for a friend. Thanks!!!!

[RootSkier]

This house just sold for $162,000 (4 beds, 2 baths, 1,704 Square Feet).

She's a real looker.



(You have a good point, though, except that the border is still closed.)

[4matic]

With global warming knocking on the door anyway, it might be a good time for a lake house and a ski boat in Indiana.

Clear Lake isn’t cheap.

[altasnob]

Lead and arsenic laced soil does a marvelous job of keeping real estate prices down.

[sirbumpsalot]

So your cards won't going crashing down too? Do you own a gold mine?

Not if you don't hold any cards.....cash is king.

[Timberridge]

Owning a 2nd home is a PITA though it may take you 10 years or so to realize that.

[Toadman]

Not if you don't hold any cards.....cash is king.

Assuming deflation, then yes.

[Greenstateofmind]

Clear Lake isn’t cheap.

Or a paddle boat on a muddy creek in Louisiana?

[AdironRider]

It's relative. I just moved from a small town in Montana back to the small Maine (resort) town where folks live. That small town in Montana had seen huge growth in real estate costs, albeit not nearly as silly as Bozeman, and then things got straight up silly (again, not Bozeman-level stupid) after covid hit; the most immediate impact is that the renters looking for new places after their landlords cashed in are seriously struggling to find anything they can afford.

Meanwhile, the values here in Maine for anything attractive to skiers already went silly--condos that were $45k ish in the early 90s are going for three times that, and the construction quality certainly didn't improve in the meantime. I think we should pack up and move somewhere that's ten years earlier on the demand curve, but my wife doesn't want to go anywhere and right now, her job is a lot more stable than mine.

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I think you are going to have a hard time finding a place anywhere outside of absolutely dead rust belt cities that hasn't seen that kind of appreciation in 30 years. 1990 was a long time ago at this point.

I also think a lot of people are really pushing reality with what they consider affordable. 45K? That isn't a realistic number.

I see this a lot here in my neck of the woods. People complain about affordability, but then when you read between the lines what they consider affordable is something that basically allows them to never work again otherwise it is to damn expensive.