Real Estate Crash thread

[4matic]

it also provides an incentive for people to stay in their homes, correct?

That is somewhat true. Prop 19 this year works to mitigate that incentive.

[altasnob]

In 2003 FINANCIER Warren Buffett announced that he paid property taxes of$14,410 (or 2.9 percent) on his $500,000 home in Omaha, Nebraska, but paid only $2,264 (or 0.056 percent) on his $4 million California home.1AlthoughBuffett is known as an astute investor, his low California property taxes were not due to his investment prowess, but rather to Proposition 13.

Paper on the "lock-in" effect, i.e. people not moving, of Prop 13:

https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~miwhite/wasi-white-final.pdf

[54-46]

SMH. Just offered $60K over asking on a nice condo in Marin and wasn’t within $20K of the winning offer. Guess I’ll just wait...

[AdironRider]

We don't need a paper, Liv is openly bragging about it in this thread today.

Prop 13 isn't that big of a deal to me personally. CA gets their slice with income taxes, and Liv's example goes to shit when you take into account Tejas has no income tax. Anyone who could afford a house in Texas with a 40k tax bill is making bank and would pay out the ass in CA. Liv probably pays substantial income tax. His gas taxes are high and so on.

Every state gets their slice of the pie one way or another. The delta between the highest tax burden states and the lowest is only 7%. Not astronomical. Sure I'd like to see every state have a lower tax burden but in a general sense, it is not some huge variance between states like some would posture.

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-wit...x-burden/20494

[Toadman]

Pretty crazy what the avg. list price is around here. And it goes fast too.

[Mazderati]

Doesn't seem a stretch to say covfefe will make an impact into at least mid 2021. Residential supply would remain low at least through that point as people hunker down but it's a crazy market and who knows. But, it seems like commercial supply of all types - especially office - would have to start increasing at some point next year even if residential doesn't.

[4matic]

There’s already talk about more hotel condo conversions.

[californiagrown]

I don't understand how the San Francisco Bay area exists. My wife grew up in San Francisco (in the actual city). Her parents still live in the same house they bought in 1980. They would like to sell and move to a smaller place but Prop 13 caps their property tax at an exceptionally small amount. If they move, their property tax would be reset to today's value. The net effect is two old farts living in a house way too big for them. Their neighborhood is filled with people in this exact situation.

All my wife's childhood friends work for big tech, as does their spouses. The combined income of the couples is over $400k. Yet all complain about not being able to afford to buy and they all are still renting. When they visit Seattle they are blown away by the affordability (ya, Seattle). Some have moved here. The ones who haven't is normally because they want to remain close to their family in the Bay (and they are soft Californians who can't handle the crappy weather). If techies can't afford the $1.6 million median homes, who the fuck can? Teachers, prosecutors, public defenders in San Francisco probably make $150k a year. That sounds like a lot but you can't buy shit in the Bay on that. And these are professionals with fancy degrees. What about the rest of society? How does this continue? I've been waiting and waiting for it to collapse but it hasn't happened.

Yep. I moved up to WA 6 years back in large part due to the affordable housing compared to the Bay area. Shoot, I still think it's cheap. My wife on the other hand has trouble wrapping her head around why a 50 year old 1800sf house is worth 750k haha.

Lots of folks rent in the Bay Area. Easier to come up with 3-4k/month than it is to come up with the cash to buy a 1.4mil home. The market may decline there, but itll never collapse ( i mean the core BA, not the planned subdivision mcmansion communties on the outskirts). Too much brain power, too many TOP tier colleges, too many businesses headquartered there, and too many people want to live there for the culture and weather. My retired parents bought a foreclosure for peanuts in the late 70s there, and could sell it now for millions, but the property taxes alone on a new house would be more than their previous mortgage payments.

[Buster Highmen]

Colorado mountain towns are going nuts.

The number of people rolling through town is higher than we've ever seen.

Real estate is going through the roof, everything is being bought even sketchy, leaning draftboxes.

Between the soaring heat across the southwest and covid forcing remote work, so many people are moving and even more are just driving through. It's busier now than even in a normal summer.

[altasnob]

Edifects (healthcare IT) CEO just smashed Washington state record for highest price house when he bought a house at the tip of Hunts Point for $60 million (on the Bellevue side of Lake Washington, near Seattle). Previous record was Jeff Bezos who bought his home for $45 million. Tax appraised for $23 million in 2020. Not many of photos of the house available online.





Public property report:

https://blue.kingcounty.com/Assessor...Nbr=3534900262

[m2711c]

the whole tip or just half a tip?

[altasnob]

Just the left half of the tip. The other property on the right is here:

https://blue.kingcounty.com/Assessor...Nbr=3534900263

In April 2019 a home just down the street sold for $37 million. You can view a video of that home.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-37-5-million/

[dunfree]

Just the left half of the tip. The other property on the right is here:

https://blue.kingcounty.com/Assessor...Nbr=3534900263

In April 2019 a home just down the street sold for $37 million. You can view a video of that home.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...-37-5-million/

is there a business that rents pompous art books for staging homes like that, or do the stagers just buy them, write them off, and keep them?

$2 million in 80s Seattle, ooof

[Garbowski]

is there a business that rents pompous art books for staging homes like that, or do the stagers just buy them, write them off, and keep them?

I'd guess it's all rentals like the rest of the staging furniture.

A bit late to get in on this million dollar idea.
https://www.booksbythefoot.com/
https://www.booksbytheyard.co.uk/

[dunfree]

You're a bit late to get in on this million dollar idea.
https://www.booksbythefoot.com/
https://www.booksbytheyard.co.uk/

that shits The ikea display crap.

these were actual art books.

[abraham]

Huh, a yard of penguin books for 99.99. I wonder if that's actually a reasonable deal if you wanted the books.

[Toadman]

Median home price climbs to $320,644 as demand outpaces supply, with pending sales up 31% and new listings growing 8%.
Key housing market takeaways for 434 U.S. metro areas during the four-week period ending October 11:
The median home sale price increased 14.9% year over year to $320,644—the highest value on record in Redfin’s data.
The median asking price of new listings was up 14.2% from a year earlier—the highest growth rate since the four-week period ending August 30.
Pending home sales climbed 30.7% year over year, a slight uptick from the 28.6% growth rate we saw during the four weeks ending Oct. 4, but still below the September peak.
New listings of homes for sale were up 7.5% from a year earlier, an acceleration from 4.5% during the four weeks ending October 4, but still below the early September peak.
Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) fell 28.5% from 2019 to a new all-time low.
45.1% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market. This metric has held relatively steady since June.
The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking prices, rose to 99.5%—a record high and 1.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier.
For the week ending October 11, the seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index was up 40.3% from pre-pandemic levels in January and February.

[Kevo]

Worst economic conditions in 90 years. Most housing appreciation in history??

Seems legit.

[Toadman]

Worst economic conditions in 90 years. Most housing appreciation in history??

Seems legit.

I think economists refer to that as the decoupling of RE from the rest of the economy.

[californiagrown]

Worst economic conditions in 90 years. Most housing appreciation in history??

Seems legit.

For a person that doesnt really buy anything (food excepted) unless i get a bro-deal hookup, this housing market is really, really discouraging to buy in to.

[Kevo]

All asset prices are decoupled from the economy, apparently. Seems like we could be on the cusp of major inflation.

[Lexi-Bell]

But does Bozeman have big city problems like meth and gangs on every street corner? I guess that comes later...

Bend is similar in that the median home price is at $529k, at least in terms of low wages and the crowded part. They keep adding more hotels to try and keep up with the touron demand.

Not yet we don't, that's down the road in Billings.

We have big city problems like a massive disparity in wealth.

While I'm incredibly fortunate to have managed to purchase multiple properties here that have appreciated beyond my wildest dreams, I'm also sad that nurses, teachers, law enforcement officers and folks in my profession can no longer afford to purchase a home in town.

One data point for example: we purchased our first home in 2002 for $160k, it recently appraised at $450k.

[CascadeLuke]

Edifects (healthcare IT) CEO just smashed Washington state record for highest price house when he bought a house at the tip of Hunts Point for $60 million (on the Bellevue side of Lake Washington, near Seattle). Previous record was Jeff Bezos who bought his home for $45 million. Tax appraised for $23 million in 2020. Not many of photos of the house available online.





Public property report:

https://blue.kingcounty.com/Assessor...Nbr=3534900262

This place is primo and very well known by the water. That 2 lot point used to be an amazing mid century home that became a tear down years back. They were asking 45M for the large lot (point) don’t know what it closed at. Was subdivided and both homes are dialed from what I can tell. On the place that sold the entire west side of the house is all windows. No one ever there. Covers on the patio furniture in the summer. The one on the right I’ve seen the owner enjoy and use. These are arguably some of the best houses on the lake but there could be higher sales prices if others ever go up.

[Benny Profane]

I think economists refer to that as the decoupling of RE from the rest of the economy.

Marxists refer to that as conditions made ripe for the proles to revolt.

[XXX-er]

IME the best way to stage a house was run the breadmaking machine, it covers any odor with the smell of fresh baked bread and even if they don't buy the house you get a loaf of bread

In spite of the fact they were looking for a condo they did buy the house