Real Estate Crash thread

[Bobcat Sig]

^^^ Which is why there's nothing to buy, because nobody wants to sell, because there's nothing to buy.

If it weren't for the wife's job, I'd happily sell our now inflated home and move back to the Rockies. With what home prices are going for here in Portland and what I can get in a small town in Idaho or Montant; it's an easy decision.

[gravitylover]

Over the last few weeks the number of homes in my neighborhood that went up for sale is amazing. It's hard to know whether people are hoping to take advantage of the sellers market or if they're hurting and need to get out but I saw a post yesterday where someone was saying that they were being encouraged to list their house for $100k more than they think it's worth. Apparently they did and it sold for 120 more than they would have expected and a few people responded and said they had a similar experience. Too bad we can't go anywhere for a few more years.

[Toadman]

^^^ Which is why there's nothing to buy, because nobody wants to sell, because there's nothing to buy.

There's so much buying going on, despite the fact that no one is selling. Must be all new home construction.

[altasnob]

With what home prices are going for here in Portland and what I can get in a small town in Idaho or Montant; it's an easy decision.

The first domino that needs to fall is California home prices drop significantly. Seattle and Portland have had as much home appreciation in the last decade as anywhere. To me, this is because as unaffordable the PNW is today, it is still a hell of a lot cheaper than the Bay Area. And when Seattle and Portland's prices become unaffordable, you see Spokane, Boise, Missoula, Bozeman, and other Western towns' prices go up. Until California drops, the entire West will continue to see the ratio of home price to average income continue to be more skeweed.

And I do think we will see a major drop in California soon. Trump has shut the door on legal immigration. Illegal immigration is down. And the US birth rate is so low, the only reason our population is not decreasing is immigration. Without an increasing population in the US, home prices must come down.

[Timberridge]

But the fires keep reducing the inventory.

[4matic]

[Bobcat Sig]

The first domino that needs to fall is California home prices drop significantly. Seattle and Portland have had as much home appreciation in the last decade as anywhere. To me, this is because as unaffordable the PNW is today, it is still a hell of a lot cheaper than the Bay Area. And when Seattle and Portland's prices become unaffordable, you see Spokane, Boise, Missoula, Bozeman, and other Western towns' prices go up. Until California drops, the entire West will continue to see the ratio of home price to average income continue to be more skeweed.

And I do think we will see a major drop in California soon. Trump has shut the door on legal immigration. Illegal immigration is down. And the US birth rate is so low, the only reason our population is not decreasing is immigration. Without an increasing population in the US, home prices must come down.

Did you read upthread about Bozeman? They are already there and have, in some cases, higher median home prices than some large west coast cities. They've also had some of the largest year-over-year home price growth of anywhere in the west. People aren't going to get pushed there; they already have as of about ten years ago.

[Kevo]

Bozeman seems pretty messed up. All of the problems of CO crowds with all of the issues of CA prices, all with local wages below Kansas City levels.

[dunfree]

The first domino that needs to fall is California home prices drop significantly. Seattle and Portland have had as much home appreciation in the last decade as anywhere. To me, this is because as unaffordable the PNW is today, it is still a hell of a lot cheaper than the Bay Area. And when Seattle and Portland's prices become unaffordable, you see Spokane, Boise, Missoula, Bozeman, and other Western towns' prices go up. Until California drops, the entire West will continue to see the ratio of home price to average income continue to be more skeweed.

The CZU lightning complex fire destroyed ~1% of the housing stock in Santa Cruz county Ca this year. Sonoma Co. has lost thousands of homes to fire in the past decade. That’s a sizable disruption of the local market. SF rents are crashing, but they were sky high, and sf != Bay Area.

[liv2ski]

I have lived in CA for about 52 years now and the times prices tanked it was because of large local area or state wide unemployment. Think the ending of the moon program, the S & L collapse and the defense industry blowup under Clinton. Then there was the aberration of the market due to Liar Loans blowing up between 2008 & 2012, but normally it is an unemployment event.
So does your crystal ball seeing it getting way worse due to the Covids shutting everything down?

[altasnob]

Seattle medium home price is $753,000. Portland $450,000. San Franciso $1.6 million. Bozeman $575,000.

So you can see how Bozeman still sounds affordable to those in Seattle and San Francisco.

All of the "Portlandia" coolness of Portland was because Portland was significantly cheaper than Seattle. The artistic cool kids from Seattle moved from Seattle to Portland. Now Portland is too expensive so they are starting to move to places like Tacoma (which isn't very affordable anymore either).

[sirbumpsalot]

Bozeman seems pretty messed up. All of the problems of CO crowds with all of the issues of CA prices, all with local wages below Kansas City levels.

I was just in Bozemen for a night last week on a Yellowstone trip and looked up on Zillow to see what was available....Yikes....same prices as in Portland area. I was amazed. Place has changed a lot since I was last around there 12-13yrs ago.

[shroom]

‘cost of living’ is good at creating classes


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[altasnob]

So does your crystal ball seeing it getting way worse due to the Covids shutting everything down?

When exactly will CA go down, who knows. But seems inevitable. Factors that will help cause this:
-stagnant US population growth with immigration being curtailed.
-more affordable, educated, locations in the West that still have easy access to Asia.
-Work from home allowing people to move to more affordable locations.
-Work from home helping tech companies off shore even more jobs.
-Fires making living in CA shitty. The general CA population doesn't care that their mountains don't get as much snow anymore, but everyone hates fires.
-Retirees (with money) moving out of state due to high housing and taxes in CA.

Will San Francisco become the next Detroit? No way. I think San Francisco will always be among the most high priced real estate in the US. But the growth is unsustainable. Up here in WA our government is trying everything they can to not become the next San Francisco. There is a 41 unit micro (studio) housing going in right next to my single family home in Tacoma. Cram em in like Tokyo.

[Bobcat Sig]

The pandemic has certainly brought a brief pause to the wild and seemingly unchecked re-urbanization of the US. Once people were forced inside their studio apartments, the shine quickly wore off urban living for some. Hence the growth in outlying suburbs and nearby rural communities. It will be interesting to see if this the tip of iceberg to that fall or if the move to urban centers continues?

[Toadman]

Bozeman seems pretty messed up. All of the problems of CO crowds with all of the issues of CA prices, all with local wages below Kansas City levels.

But does Bozeman have big city problems like meth and gangs on every street corner? I guess that comes later...

Bend is similar in that the median home price is at $529k, at least in terms of low wages and the crowded part. They keep adding more hotels to try and keep up with the touron demand.

[Gman]

When exactly will CA go down, who knows. But seems inevitable. Factors that will help cause this:
-stagnant US population growth with immigration being curtailed.
-more affordable, educated, locations in the West that still have easy access to Asia.
-Work from home allowing people to move to more affordable locations.
-Work from home helping tech companies off shore even more jobs.
-Fires making living in CA shitty. The general CA population doesn't care that their mountains don't get as much snow anymore, but everyone hates fires.
-Retirees (with money) moving out of state due to high housing and taxes in CA.

Will San Francisco become the next Detroit? No way. I think San Francisco will always be among the most high priced real estate in the US. But the growth is unsustainable. Up here in WA our government is trying everything they can to not become the next San Francisco. There is a 41 unit micro (studio) housing going in right next to my single family home in Tacoma. Cram em in like Tokyo.

I think you'll start to see if it isn't happening already certain segments of the market start to experience a drop in price. That being said, I live in Berkeley and we're still seeing homes go for over asking. The biggest challenge right now is the lack of inventory, both in SF as well as the east bay. A lot of people it seems are taking a wait and see approach as the big tech companies figure out their plans for next year and beyond.

I don't see places like SF becoming affordable but it's likely that places in CA that are more populated by a lower median housing cost will stay stagnant/decline.

[ColMan]

I don't see places like SF becoming affordable but it's likely that places in CA that are more populated by a lower median housing cost will stay stagnant/decline.

Most of the Central Valley (Bakersfield, Fresno, Modesto, etc.) fits the bill. Shitty air quality, weather, and high crime rates will do that I suppose.

[liv2ski]

Most of the Central Valley (Bakersfield, Fresno, Modesto, etc.) fits the bill. Shitty air quality, weather, and high crime rates will do that I suppose.

If you're going to live in those towns, you might as well move elsewhere (out of CA) where you can find a better quality of life and maybe lower taxes.

[4matic]

The regional forecast (or set of projections) shows that between 2010 and 2040, the Bay Area is
projected to grow from 3.4 to 4.7 million jobs, while the population is projected to grow from 7.2 to 9.5
million people. This population will live in almost 3.6 million households, an increase of nearly 800,000
households over 2010 levels (see Figure 1). Recent data allows us to observe the actual experience in
the first five years of this thirty year set of projections. Although as mentioned above, the regional
forecast focuses on long-term trends, tracking progress to date highlights the range of variation that can
occur within a long-term period and among the different elements projected. The cyclical nature of
employment growth, through booms and busts, is evident, as is the more gradual pace at which
population changes, as well as the lags that may affect housing expansion.
The forecast estimates:

An increase of 1.3 million jobs between 2010 and 2040. Almost half of those jobs—over
600,000—were added between 2010 and 2015.

An increase of 2.3 million people between 2010 and 2040. Almost one fourth of the projected
growth occurred between 2010 and 2015.

An increase of 783,000 households. Only 13 percent of that increase occurred between 2010
and 2015, but the pace of household growth will increase as an older population typically means
smaller average household sizes.

823,000 additional housing units. Only 8 percent of this growth had occurred by 2015,
highlighting the need for a focused effort to expand housing production to meet the needs of
our broad range of household types. Of the 823,000 projected units, about 39,600 come from
the increment of units added to the Regional Housing Control Total to meet the legal settlement
agreement.

[altasnob]

Most of the Central Valley (Bakersfield, Fresno, Modesto, etc.) fits the bill. Shitty air quality, weather, and high crime rates will do that I suppose.

But the type of jobs in the Central Valley (like growing cauliflower in February) can't easily be relocated to Bozeman.

[muted]

Always a demand for a good dental floss picker in MT.

[Tips^Up]

2 weeks ago, I listed a 500 sf 1-bedroom tiny home for rent. I was nervous that I was being a greedy dick, raising rents 20% over current tenants, to $1750/month (including 1-car garage and utilities). Demand was overwhelming. I probably should have gone higher. Showed it to 4 parties last week after work one night, selected the best (hottest?) option. 1st, last and security deposit is hitting my bank account right now. Things be booming in the Colorado rockies.

[skiballs]

its boomin here
i git an unsolicited text every other week from an re investor and their always adressed to my wife
so far no "i bets she'd take a mil" action
were refinancing at 2.5 for 20 paying off some debt and the home eq line the solar was on
The appraiser sent her highschool kid in to take pics
i wish i had a picture of his eyes when he opened the man cave door
ya im a ski gear investor
and yeah ill sell anything if you gots bob barker cash
im skeptical of the half a mil appraisal on a 1/2 remodeled house and the increase of property taxs
but stoked on the refi and the market

Still haven’t finished the bathroom drywall?


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[ötzi]

the bathroom's been done a while now